John 🌝
John 🌝
@heres.bsky.social
Data Analyst. Reconstruction Amendments Absolutist.
430 followers803 following964 posts
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This is the key takeaway: Haley Stevens got everything she could have asked for. AIPAC spent the most it ever has. The party pulled out all the stops. Millions were even spent to spread the false idea that the most popular president in modern US history endorsed her. And it still wasn’t enough.
Abdul El-Sayed’s win represents a big blow to the politics of bygone days. Because if one campaign can show that *that* much money and *that* much old guard support doesn’t guarantee victory, it cracks open what can be imagined. It widens the aperture of what’s possible.
Low margin != low profit. Grocery stores can earn competitive returns on capital despite "thin" margins. The policy objective isn't to insulate incumbents from competition anyway. They can respond by improving operations or by changing their product mix.
My understanding is that running a grocery store is a low-margin enterprise and there's not much wiggle room to cut prices. So a public option that undercuts existing stores on price via subsidy seems like it will drive nearby shops out of business. Not great.
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my lawsuit featured in the chronicle of higher education www.chronicle.com/article/a-pr...
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"Local strategists noted the abrupt shift when the Biss attacks stopped earlier this month." www.politico.com/news/2026/03...
a lot of people are getting this twisted up in a way I really do not like: AIPAC spent heavily *against* Biss in IL-9.
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Replying to @azrww.bsky.social
Highlighting the speaker who stood in front of the Surprise mayor and told him to consider what the Mayor of Ohrdruf must’ve thought before he died by suicide: “He might have thought ‘how is this my fault I had no jurisdiction over this’ maybe he said ‘this site was not subject to local zoning.’”
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The Atlantic definitely did a lot of rallying
You don’t have to love everything outlets like the Times or Atlantic do to understand that: -many talented people of good faith work for most mainstream outlets -their platforms are vastly larger than ours Our resistance will die in secrecy or win by rallying the world to our side
"When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure" Cherry-picked, specially collected, or hand-crafted data can always be made to look good. The NYT does report data ofc, just not data that allows readers to evaluate performance against a stated goal.
You don't get to be called "data-centric," whatever the NYT is trying to signal to liberal readers by that, while in the same breath denying overwhelming scientific consensus. Just comical, destructive stuff. Extremely unserious.
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centrists trot out economic graphs as "wins" when "real" wages increased for people and they're still below the poverty line. real income doesn't account for debt payments so the economic data is far worse than what centrists claim, especially with interest rate hikes
genuinely when you're online arguing that the graphs say the economy is good actually, what do you expect people to say? what is the end result you're hoping for? for everyone to stop complaining about their personal starvation, evictions and medical debt because a line is going up somewhere?
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I wonder if one reason that they didn't cave earlier was that doing so would've pushed more people to vote against establishments Dems. 1) it would've made the progressive margins larger and 2) it'd be harder to claim that the establishment is popular, even with establishment electoral wins
They did and that’s EXACTLY why he caved harder. The millisecond it looks like progressive leftists have a shot with the party, the Establishment centrist moderates say “not on my watch” and tank the Party because “vote blue no matter who” only applies if you aren’t a progressive leftist.
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The weirdest thing about these articles is that they all understand that voters want likable politicians with a compelling vision who deliver meaningful benefits. That's not really the case for centrism though! www.nytimes.com/2025/11/09/o...
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The media is rushing 300 “New York Jews worried about Mamdani antisemitism” fetch essays based on nothing but Mamdani being a Muslim meanwhile the Republican Party from top to toe has the confidence to wear nazi makeup every day knowing the press looks at it like the westworld bots seeing a polaroid
Heritage Foundation having a normal one www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
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This NYT story about how Mamdani dealt with the opposition by the city's elites fails to mention one particular elite institution: The NYT editorial page, which last June railed against him as "uniquely unsuited to the city’s challenges... lacks political savvy" www.nytimes.com/2025/11/04/n... 1/
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The New York Times quickly sending out Douthat to argue that Mamdani’s victory doesn’t really matter is so predictable it borders on self-parody. Remember, folks: Every time the Right wins an election, it’s an undeniable expression of the will of the people. If a lefty wins, it’s just a blip.
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I'm assuming that the margin of error on that poll is greater than 9%. Plenty of people will move to NYC if he becomes mayor.
CLOSE TO 9% OF NEW YORKERS MAY LEAVE IF MAMDANI BECOMES MAYOR: POLL A J.L. Partners poll for the Daily Mail shows that 9% of New Yorkers—about 765,000 people—would “definitely” leave the city if Zohran Mamdani wins. Another 2.12 million residents say they would consider leaving
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Replying to @michaelhobbes.bsky.social
We literally do disagree about this, though. Some politicians want to take food from children and some politicians don't. Pretending this "isn't political" just allows the child-starving ghouls to get away with it. Tell people who supports the *political program* to feed children and who doesn't!
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Nothing is inevitable. Effort is everything. Ignore the polls and run through the tape. Vote: zohranfornyc.com/vote Canvass + phonebank: zohranfornyc.com/gotv
I think that the article is flawed overall and for the same reason. The title, presentation, and data discussion seems designed to discourage, when the data (imo) should be seen as clearly encouraging for Zohran's team. There are also some interesting choices for quotes that they used.
one thing in the otherwise excellent article I'd take issue with this chart is presented as good news for Cuomo, but that is wrong people 55-75 *always* predominate in early voting, this is a much more even age split than usual, a better aggregate demographic for Zohran than expected
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SCOOP: Brad Lander is telling allies he's planning to challenge Rep. Dan Goldman www.cityandstateny.com/politics/202...