Jason "Red5" Lyall

New paper 🚨: Is there a democratic advantage in war? 30 years of research say yes. We reevaluate these claims with new data on wars and democracy and find very little evidence to support the claim that democracies win wars at (much) higher rates than non-democracies Paper: doi.org/10.31235/osf...

You don't have to do this, @cbcradiocanada.bsky.social. It's a choice. They want to defund you. They think you're a propaganda arm of an evil government. You will never win them over by showing them grace when they show absolutely none towards you.

Also, please ignore the fact that I've spent the last five years telling you it's broken.

Here is the Canadian Armed Forces’ official explanation of what happened at CFB Wainwright, which resulted in 4 deaths and 39 soldiers in hospital: A grassfire inside the training area and spread wildly due to high winds, but no gas infrastructure involved (he later added grenades were being used)

"To the extent my rhetoric has been imperfect, that's on me."

Link fixed!

This is a very interesting look at a truism that is very deeply held on BSky, and particularly worth considering when people argue that we are liable to win a future war "eventually" as natural advantages of democratic societies assert themselves.

Link fixed!

Can it really be 9 years today? Miss you, Gord

New paper 🚨: Is there a democratic advantage in war? 30 years of research say yes. We reevaluate these claims with new data on wars and democracy and find very little evidence to support the claim that democracies win wars at (much) higher rates than non-democracies Paper: doi.org/10.31235/osf...

1. Has war declined? Scholars have debated this question for many years, often reaching contradictory conclusions. William R. Thompson and I argue reframe the question. Instead of asking whether war has declined globally, ask WHERE it has declined. Open-access paper: doi.org/10.1515/peps...

I'm raising $ for Afghan refugees I know. Fatimha & daughter Irha, 16, came to the US after 3 years in a windowless shipping container on a Qatar base. Their husband/dad is still on the base, facing deportation to a 3rd country. Fathima is ill. They're desperate. www.gofundme.com/f/support-ir...

US energy policy in a nutshell: the US wants the free flow of energy from the Persian Gulf but is enforcing a blockade of Iranian ports while sanctioning Russia and trading for its diesel at the same time while Saudi oil/gas facilities are under attack by the Houthis that the US won't help fight

I didn't have enough space to add "tariffs + a trade war with your closest energy supplier (Canada) while rebooting imperialism to capture another state's oil supply (Venezuela)." Praying for a warm winter in New England this year

Today, 48 of the roughly 60 villages and towns within Israeli-occupied southern Lebanon are mostly leveled, the Times analysis shows, due to a combination of forced displacement, scorched earth tactics (including 200+ deliberate fires), and destroyed farmland

US energy policy in a nutshell: the US wants the free flow of energy from the Persian Gulf but is enforcing a blockade of Iranian ports while sanctioning Russia and trading for its diesel at the same time while Saudi oil/gas facilities are under attack by the Houthis that the US won't help fight

At Least 12 Killed and 300 Injured in Houthi Attack on Saudi Airport; deadliest attack in a Gulf Arab country since the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran began in February, and forced the airport to temporarily suspend operations. Worth noting the attack came after 100s of Saudi airstrikes vs. Houthis

At Least 12 Killed and 300 Injured in Houthi Attack on Saudi Airport; deadliest attack in a Gulf Arab country since the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran began in February, and forced the airport to temporarily suspend operations. Worth noting the attack came after 100s of Saudi airstrikes vs. Houthis

Your moment of seasonal Vermont Zen

AHHHHHHH THE ONLY REASON HE EVEN STAYS TO DIE AT TROY IN THE ILIAD IS TO AVENGE PATROCLUS. IT'S A POEM ABOUT HIS RAGE. THE OPENING LINES ARE PRETTY CLEAR WHY CAN'T A SINGLE DEFENDER OF WESTERN CIVILIZATION READ A SINGLE THING FROM THE WESTERN CANON AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

Just some amazing colors out there today

The first Russian diesel cargo heading for the US left St Petersburg on September 22, two weeks *before* Trump announced the deal with Putin, Windward reports. The Greek-flagged tanker Minerva Zen carrying 275,000 barrels of diesel/gasoil is due at the US East Coast around 11–12 October.

Just some amazing colors out there today

Your moment of seasonal Vermont Zen

We’re already helping to fund the Russian war effort and we’ve basically ended all other aid to Ukraine. Why the fuck should the Ukrainians care about our threats anymore.

This scholar of political violence agrees

OK, Ukraine, you know what to do

OK, Ukraine, you know what to do

This ICE agent’s entire Instagram feed, “shooter.914,” is guns, watches, energy drinks, and alcohol.

In bombshell interview, the man who served as Netanyahu’s military secretary on October 7, 2023 says that the Israeli pm passed up clear-cut opportunities to bring more hostages home from Gaza alive because doing so would have risked his political career! www.timesofisrael.com/pms-ex-milit...

Not the point, I know, but if I were a gabillionaire, I would wear really nice suits, not a sad black tee

ah damn, RIP Margaret Hamilton. she took safety-critical software engineering seriously, and got people to the moon and back. news.mit.edu/2026/margare...

Golden hour Vermont Zen #2

Golden hour Vermont Zen #1

Golden hour Vermont Zen #2

Golden hour Vermont Zen #1

Potential Iranian Drone Attack Led to Exit of U.S. Aircraft from British Air Base "The suspected attack was part of a complex, multipronged Iranian plot to strike aircraft and kill some of the several hundred American personnel stationed at the base, R.A.F. Fairford, the officials said"

Potential Iranian Drone Attack Led to Exit of U.S. Aircraft from British Air Base "The suspected attack was part of a complex, multipronged Iranian plot to strike aircraft and kill some of the several hundred American personnel stationed at the base, R.A.F. Fairford, the officials said"

Lucan Way and I have been writing about competitive authoritarianism for more than 25 years. We never thought we'd write this piece. www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/com...

Holy shit.

"The need to move the bombers out of the base, R.A.F. Fairford, was deemed so urgent that some of the planes and their flight crews left while aerial refueling aircraft were still being scrambled to support their flights to the US"

"I don’t care about the culture war. I care about the actual war that we’re actually in, that we’re losing." @gravitysra1nbow.bsky.social has had it with SecDef

"The need to move the bombers out of the base, R.A.F. Fairford, was deemed so urgent that some of the planes and their flight crews left while aerial refueling aircraft were still being scrambled to support their flights to the US"

not that you should expect anything more than rank idiocy from this pair of racists, but the idea that whiteness means a "high trust" society of "social cohesion" is some of the stupidest shit i have ever heard. these people live in a fantasy land that you could dispel by simply opening a book.