Josef Davies-Coates

NEW BRIGHT SPOTS: Even on 100% gas power, heat pumps cut emissions by ~48% and EVs by about half. The authors of an “electrification doesn’t cut emissions” paper made a series of compounding mistakes and used misleading assumptions. Here's why. janrosenow.substack.com/p/heat-pumps...

"In particular, a large fall in the price of panels in 2023-24 pushed us into the current era of what Jones calls "offensively cheap" solar. "A panel in itself is just so unbelievably cheap," he says. "It's well under $100 (£75)… and that's going to keep you generating electricity for 30, 40 years"

Solar has overtaken nuclear. A decade ago it supplied 1% of the world's power. In 2025 it met three quarters of global demand growth. Almost nobody saw it coming. I spoke to Jocelyn Timperley at BBC Future about why. www.bbc.co.uk/future/artic...

Vital work from @petergeoghegan.bsky.social and @lucasamin.bsky.social, as ever: democracyforsale.substack.com/p/revealed-p...: "Why was a major government supplier allowed to help shape the rules governing how the department buys its products, with little public scrutiny?" #FOI

0.1C of warming is ~222 gigatonnes of co2 now into perpetuity. Let's say now to 2100; just under 3 GT CO2/yr. Brazil's land-use emissions were up around this not long ago! Ambitious number but totally feasible, imo carbonimpactstracer.com#interactive-... climateactiontracker.org/countries/br...

Some ground rules that have helped us: - Go outside your bubble, try new social media channels - Don’t underestimate the power of WhatsApp (although less so in the U.S.) - Post on the Instagram grid, not just stories - Watch every Instagram video until the end before sharing - IGNORE THEM

After the first round elections, Congressman André Janones created a WhatsApp channel titled “Lula’s Army.” It ballooned to 10 million people following his commands on how to behave online to counteract Meta’s far-right-favouring algorithms. The right knows how to use socials. We must learn, too.

I’m not a political journalist, so was gladly surprised at the community I found here last night. To Americans anxious about the upcoming elections, a key thing we learned in Brazil that might help you: DO NOT engage with the far-right online. Don’t share rage bait. Amplify your people. Ignore them.

2/ Background: the #AMOC is the Atlantic's great overturning current. If it collapsed, seas would rise faster round the N. Atlantic, tropical rains would shift south & NW Europe could cool sharply. With catastrophic implications for societies. I covered a recent review here:

1/ There’s an instructive debate underway in the open review pages of @egu.eu journal Ocean Science. It’s about whether we can tell if the #AMOC is already on a trajectory towards collapse. What I think it really teaches is how scientists judge evidence, & why that differs from assessing risk. 🧵

Sure, we should, if we can (many cannot). But as I keep pointing out, the government itself is making no provision at all. No stockpiles, no back-up, no alternative sources. It's individuating the response to a collective problem, and that never ends well. www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

From aristocracy to ‘assetocracy’ – how wealth has transformed the House of Lords theconversation.com/from-aristoc...

5/ Methane. The scenarios have methane emissions falling fast this decade. They are still rising. Weber et al. (2026b) find that without methane cuts, net zero CO2 by 2050 still gives nearly 2°C, & 1.5°C is off the table either way. Correct all 4 assumptions & the true gap's much wider than drawn😬

4/ Carbon removal. The 1.5°C scenarios overshoot and come back by pulling CO2 out of the air. Weber et al. (2026a) find that needs removal to scale up 10,000-fold from today, and that crossing 1.5°C may in practice be permanent. The blue line assumes the return

3/ Carbon-cycle feedbacks. Abernethy et al. (2026) add the methane and CO2 that warming itself releases from permafrost, wetlands, lakes and wildfire, and find 10–30% more warming than models project. The scenarios behind the green and blue lines largely leave these feedbacks out.

2/ Climate sensitivity. Gyuleva et al. (2026) combine satellite data on Earth’s energy imbalance with recent temperature trends, and find we should expect about 25% more warming than current projections. The scenarios behind the green and blue lines use the older, lower estimate.

1/5 The green & blue pathways very likely have overly optimistic assumptions about: - climate sensitivity - carbon-cycle feedbacks - scaling carbon dioxide removal - methane cuts The four papers in this thread 🧵 explain why we’ve been underestimating how little room is left.

Expensive gas behind ‘nearly 90%’ of rise in UK electricity bills, new analysis from @nesta_uk in @CarbonBrief Contradicts idea, which has become embedded in UK media and political narratives, that UK’s net zero target is to blame for high energy bills www.carbonbrief.org/revealed-ex...

Whenever someone says that electricity is expensive because of decarbonisation, there are only two possibilities Either they are knowingly lying to you Or they are the victims of disinformation, and have been fooled by someone who was lying to them

Funny thought experiment: Tech monopolies have spent about $1 trillion on AI development so far. How good of a chatbot could we have built for $1 trillion by just employing smart people to answer any question people might reasonably ask and collecting all the answers in a big lookup table?

What an amazing day. After a week of deep and involved discussions on the future of low-cost ocean sensors, we finally broke out the soldering irons to build some OpenCTDs. The first OpenCTD workshop with the Rev8 and already a million ideas for Rev9.

Book your place 👇 communityenergyengland.org/events/using... Part of the Energy Learning Network, funded by The National Lottery Community Fund, with @ashden-org.bsky.social, @cse.org.uk , @cescotland.bsky.social, @ynnicymunedol.bsky.social and Action Renewables. #CommunityEnergy #Solar

We’ll cover: ✅ Licence vs lease: key legal and commercial differences ✅ Arguments and regulations to use with building owners, councils and the DfE ✅ Converting a lease project to a licence ✅ Template licences and briefing your lawyer ✅ Live Q&A #CommunityEnergy #Solar

🔹 @renewablesonya.bsky.social MSc MBE, Partner Solicitor at Spencer West, director of several community energy organisations, and involved in recent DfE and NISTA consultations on draft standardised PPAs #CommunityEnergy #Solar

🔹 Mike Smyth MBE, Chair of @energy4alluk.bsky.social, The Schools’ Energy Co-op and Wey Valley Solar Schools, and a former law partner with extensive hands-on experience of using licences for rooftop solar #CommunityEnergy #Solar

It’s a timely question: while the DfE develops its standardised PPA and lease model, a number of school solar projects have stalled. Licences may offer a way forward. #CommunityEnergy #Solar

Leases are the usual route for rooftop solar, but they aren’t always the quickest or the best fit. A licence can offer more flexibility, whether you’re working with a school, a council, a community building or a business. #CommunityEnergy #Solar

Could a licence, rather than a lease, unlock your community rooftop solar project? Join our free online masterclass with Mike Smyth @energy4alluk.bsky.social & @renewablesonya.bsky.social 📅 Weds 28 Oct ⏰ 13:00-14:00 📍 Online communityenergyengland.org/events/using... #CommunityEnergy #Solar 🧵👇

Not an exaggeration to say that elections in the next twelve days will have a huge effect on how many trees survive on our planet, and what its atmosphere is composed of. billmckibben.substack.com/p/elections-...

I discussed the new U.N. report on breaching the 1.5C dangerous global warming limit (and the unhelpful green-lighting of new North Sea gas drilling project by U.K. Prime Minster Andy Burnham) earlier this evening with #BBCNews:

I didn't know this story.

When I see articles in the Telegraph etc ranting about solar panels in the countryside, I think of what the era of fossil energy inflicted on communities in Wales and beyond. I know which I would choose. youtu.be/wzQggqG2zcI?...

A judge orders Meta to pay $25 billion after a jury finds the company had misled consumers about data privacy.

For reference, Nathan Cofnas is the racist academic who ignited the campaign of harassment that led to the death of Cambridge scholar Jason Arday.

Here is @orieloxford.bsky.social, hosting a white supremacist race "scientist" as an educational treat. Oriel's Provost, Neil Mendoza, can be contacted via his secretary rebecca.bricklebank@oriel.ox.ac.uk, or his parliamentary address mendozan@parliament.uk

And we've got the likes of Dale Vince, formerly a green icon, celebrating his roll in this plan 🤦 (time to boycott @ecotricity.bsky.social ? Obviously, stay away from and stop giving you money to Fossil Fuel companies too, who like Dale want us to keep our boilers instead of getting #heatpumps)

Britain's 2026 wheat, spring and winter barley, oats and oilseed rape is officially the worst on record

"a senior IMF official noted that global food prices in August reached their highest level since 2022 — rice is up 50% this year alone, while soybeans are 21% costlier."

Read the full report, and join our Energy Learning Network webinar on 5 November, 12:00–13:30, to find out more. communityenergyengland.org/publications... #CommunityEnergy #SharedOwnership

The report includes case studies of Forest Gate Solar Farm, Y Bryn Wind Farm and the Feeder Road battery project, plus key insights on how policy could unlock more shared ownership, from GB Energy finance to planning reform. #CommunityEnergy #SharedOwnership

Shared ownership can also smooth the way through #planning. Developers described communities speaking up for projects at planning committees, and fewer objections and appeals as a result. #CommunityEnergy #SharedOwnership

"We feel that the roll-out of renewable energy would be much more rapid if communities feel they have ownership, pride and participation." Harry Lopes, Founder & CEO, @edenrenewables.bsky.social #CommunityEnergy #SharedOwnership

Developers told us #CommunityEnergy #SharedOwnership brings three benefits: 1. Community support and enhanced credibility 2. Planning benefits, with fewer objections and appeals 3. Reduced cost and risk on future projects

New report: Benefits of community shared ownership: the developer's perspective 🧵 We asked developers, funders and community energy organisations why offering communities a stake in renewable energy projects works for developers too. #CommunityEnergy #SharedOwnership