Dr. Raymond Kuo | 郭泓均

Dr. Raymond Kuo | 郭泓均

@kuorum.bsky.social

Expert on international order and Asian security. 🇹🇼🇺🇸 Website: https://www.raymondkuo.com/

9.3K followers1K following895 posts

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Dr. Raymond Kuo | 郭泓均
@kuorum.bsky.social

My latest on the upcoming Trump-Xi meeting from @global-affairs.bsky.social. Had a lot of fun writing this with Mike Hunzeker (@taiwanmonitor.bsky.social) and Mark Christopher. globalaffairs.org/commentary/a...

globalaffairs.orgAt Trump-Xi Summit, a Chance to Set the Terms on TaiwanThe Beijing meeting gives the United States an opportunity to push back on a Chinese narrative that worsens the bargaining positions of both Washington and Taipei.

Dr. Raymond Kuo | 郭泓均 reposted

Chicago Council on Global Affairs
@global-affairs.bsky.social

"In attempting to 'personalize' US-China ties, Trump has produced an incoherent diplomatic process that will fail to stabilize the world’s most important bilateral relationship," Council Vice President of Research for Geostrategy and Diplomacy @kuorum.bsky.social writes. bit.ly/4yWHdcG

globalaffairs.orgTrump's Meeting with Xi Reveals Limits of Personalistic Foreign PolicyThe two leaders left the US-China summit without any agreement on technology competition, trade, or Taiwan.

Dr. Raymond Kuo | 郭泓均 reposted

elia ayoub
@ayoub.bsky.social

Friend shared this video of a man unveiling the library he hid when he fled Damascus in 2011. It’s incredible

Dr. Raymond Kuo | 郭泓均
@kuorum.bsky.social

Michael is fantastic, and so is his department. A great opportunity!

Michael Donnelly @mjdonnelly.bsky.social

Come work with me! U of T is searching in American politics. I'm on the committee. My APSA schedule is booked, but if you see me around, feel free to introduce yourself and ask anything about the search. I'm also happy to do Zooms before or after APSA. jobs.utoronto.ca/job/Toronto-...

jobs.utoronto.caAssistant Professor - American PoliticsAssistant Professor - American Politics
Dr. Raymond Kuo | 郭泓均
@kuorum.bsky.social

Thanks for having me on!

War on the Rocks@warontherocks.bsky.social

Taiwan simulated internet blackouts for civilians, armed its coast guard with missiles, and called up 20,000 reservists for coastal defense. The exercises keep getting wider. (Members Only) Listen here: warontherocks.com/episode/warc...

Dr. Raymond Kuo | 郭泓均
@kuorum.bsky.social

#polisky See, this is why I think it'd be helpful to do list experiments in the US to determine preference falsification levels and reasons.

Adam Serwer@adamserwer.bsky.social

my total speculation is that the social media panopticon has made social desirability bias insurmountable, and so people just don't tell the truth (this is not a dunk on the poster) bsky.app/profile/sarw...

Dr. Raymond Kuo | 郭泓均
@kuorum.bsky.social

New York City (and esp. Brooklyn!) Istanbul Taipei Minneapolis Beirut All cities I've explored deeply, just wandering streets. All have hidden gems waiting to be found and delight. All are vibrant meeting places for different cultures.

Brent Toderian@brenttoderian.bsky.social

QUESTION: What are your FIVE favourite cities anywhere in the world? Bonus points for persuasive explanations why your choices are “right.” Mine (in no order) are: Paris Barcelona New York Montreal Vancouver

Dr. Raymond Kuo | 郭泓均 reposted

James
@gravitysra1nbow.bsky.social

We have to stop providing 155mm rounds to Ukraine so we can pivot to ceasing arms sales to Taiwan so we can waste our entire inventory of TLAMs and THAAD interceptors on Iran

Dr. Raymond Kuo | 郭泓均 reposted

Bill Kristol
@billkristolbulwark.bsky.social

Trump's capitulation on Taiwan has been explicit and striking. Has any of the China hawks who've justified support for or acquiescence to Trump because "he'll be tough on China" reconsidered? Has any acknowledged they were wrong? Feel free to offer names of those who have or haven't in the replies.

Dr. Raymond Kuo | 郭泓均 reposted

Tahar 🇺🇦 🇵🇸 🇺🇳 🇪🇺
@rochaa.bsky.social

Jesus! Shut the fuck up! Shut the fuck up! Shut the fuck up! He knifed Taiwan in the back by turning them into warmongers. He couldn’t have sent a brighter green-light to China than this. Also, Mao cared about Taiwan. So did Liu Shaoqi, Deng Xiaoping, Jiang Zemin, etc. Shut uuuuup!

The Bulwark@thebulwark.com

Trump: "It's always been the biggest thing for [Xi], Taiwan. Now with me, I don't think they'll do anything…They have somebody [in Taiwan] now that wants to go independent. That's a risky thing. They're going independent because they want to get into a war."

Dr. Raymond Kuo | 郭泓均
@kuorum.bsky.social

Exactly what we argued Trump should not do. By parroting China's framing, he closes off political space for the real source of power: deeper security cooperation with Taiwan. globalaffairs.org/commentary/a...

globalaffairs.orgAt Trump-Xi Summit, a Chance to Set the Terms on TaiwanThe Beijing meeting gives the United States an opportunity to push back on a Chinese narrative that worsens the bargaining positions of both Washington and Taipei.
Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com

Trump on China's bellicose rhetoric about Taiwan: "It's not a take over, they just don't want to see this place -- we'll call it a place, because nobody knows how to define it -- but they don't want to see it go independent."

Dr. Raymond Kuo | 郭泓均 reposted

Patrick Chovanec
@prchovanec.bsky.social

Watching a series of former Confederate states rush to eliminate any vestige of black representation in the House pretty much answers the question whether the Voting Rights Act was still necessary.

Dr. Raymond Kuo | 郭泓均
@kuorum.bsky.social

In addition to the Trump-Xi piece below, I also have a Q&A on the @global-affairs.bsky.social's website: globalaffairs.org/commentary/a... And a piece on the ASEAN summit last week: globalaffairs.org/commentary/a...

globalaffairs.orgWhat the Trump-Xi Summit Could Mean for US-China RelationsFrom trade to Taiwan, the two leaders are set to discuss a range of thorny issues this week in Beijing.
Dr. Raymond Kuo | 郭泓均@kuorum.bsky.social

My latest on the upcoming Trump-Xi meeting from @global-affairs.bsky.social. Had a lot of fun writing this with Mike Hunzeker (@taiwanmonitor.bsky.social) and Mark Christopher. globalaffairs.org/commentary/a...

globalaffairs.orgAt Trump-Xi Summit, a Chance to Set the Terms on TaiwanThe Beijing meeting gives the United States an opportunity to push back on a Chinese narrative that worsens the bargaining positions of both Washington and Taipei.
Dr. Raymond Kuo | 郭泓均
@kuorum.bsky.social

3. Enforcement. Will such an exchange bind the parties to self-enforcing agreements? Does it further foreclose Taiwan’s defensive space for political symbolism or theater? Can China credibly commit not to use concessions to ask for more in the future?

Dr. Raymond Kuo | 郭泓均
@kuorum.bsky.social

Ultimately, China and Taiwan are not caught in a security dilemma. As we write: "What level of arms would Beijing consider acceptable for Taiwan to possess for its own self-defense? If the answer is functionally 'none,' it is clear which party is the aggressor."

Dr. Raymond Kuo | 郭泓均
@kuorum.bsky.social

1. Commitment. If a TW president publicly promises not to call China and Taiwan two separate countries, how does that address Beijing’s fears of military threat? Has Beijing ever publicly made such a connection, or is this just "hopium" from analysts?

Dr. Raymond Kuo | 郭泓均
@kuorum.bsky.social

Expanding on the piece, there is a "Green Lantern" quality to calls for the US to "rein in" Taiwan as a way to mollify China: www.vox.com/2014/5/20/57... These proposals fail to address three cumulative problems.

vox.comThe Green Lantern Theory of the Presidency, explainedVox is a general interest news site for the 21st century. Its mission: to help everyone understand our complicated world, so that we can all help shape it. In text, video and audio, our reporters expl...
Dr. Raymond Kuo | 郭泓均
@kuorum.bsky.social

We argue that many analysts assume China and Taiwan are caught in a security dilemma. Cross-Strait peace can occur if both sides refrain from provocative actions. This leads to a false equivalence. China will reduce its military exercises if only Taiwan would stop teaching its own history in HS.