R. Daniel Kelemen

Super excited to see this article in print in the APSR: 📚 “Public Service Decline and Support for the Populist Right: Evidence from England’s National Health Service” - with the brilliant @zachdickson.bsky.social @catherinedevries.bsky.social @simonecremaschi.bsky.social doi.org/10.1017/S000...

New working paper w/ @hannafolsz.bsky.social In 2025, Trump targeted US law firms for their political opposition Some firms resisted by suing Trump. Others folded by agreeing to support the administration w/ pro bono work Resisting firms took a short term financial hit but improved reputations

The consequences of Trump 2.0 will be felt by generations of Americans.

As Trump condemned Colorado for incarcerating election denier Tina Peters, the White House organized an urgent "brainstorm call" with federal agencies — to explore ways to curtail federal support to Colorado. The next day, agencies canceled hundreds of millions of dollars in grants for Colorado.

Honestly this is the right way to look at things

New from me: More than a trillion dollars flow through the federal government in grants. We have more and more evidence that the Trump administration has been directing those grants on purely partisan grounds, denying them to blue states. 🧵 donmoynihan.substack.com/p/governing-...

Exporting democratic erosion

Elon Musk’s cuts to U.S.A.I.D. led to some 700,000 deaths, Atul Gawande says. www.newyorker.com/news/the-new...

👇

Most NATO leaders think this, of course. But is it their task to say it out loud? Europeans are currently reorganising their economic and defence policies in order to be less dependent on the US. In the meantime, they deal with the existing US gov't and hope for a more sane one after 2028. 🧵

WOW -- Danish reporter *goes there* with Rutte "You sit next to Trump when he talks about conquering Greenland, lashes out at allies like Spain -- things it doesn't seem like the old Mark Rutte would approve of. Does this have any affect on your self-respect when you sit there and say nothing?"

‘Polarization’ has become the master concept for diagnosing our current democratic crisis. But this is not polarization. It is the radicalization of the political right. By misdiagnosing it, we risk becoming complicit in the crisis. 🧵 Just out in Perspectives on Politics doi.org/10.1017/S153...

The Hungarian public broadcaster, one of the nastiest propaganda mouthpieces under Orban, just went dark & apologized for years of lying. 📺 Here’s to brighter days. 444.hu/2026/07/07/b...

Remember this? The Brexit Trilemma

About the myth of “unnecessary regulation”: regulation is about the things we value: health, safety, privacy, consumer & workers rights, fair competition, public services. It is also about harmonisation, i.e. creating a level playing field, benefiting companies. We should cherish it, not attack it

Brexit referendum was ten years ago today.. I wrote this a couple days later. The predictions have held up well- though Brexit did less damage to EU than I suspected and was even worse for UK economy than I imagined. www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/uni...

Worrying www.thenation.com/article/poli...

The second #EUMoldova summit will take place tomorrow in Brussels. The summit, which comes one week after the opening of the first cluster for accession negotiations, will be key to highlighting the strategic importance of 🇲🇩's future within the 🇪🇺. → link.europa.eu/KKjFR6

Kelemen @rdanielkelemen.bsky.social & Ziblatt: "How to Beat an Autocrat" "The first lesson from Hungary is a simple one: center-right parties are a crucial hinge of democracy. When the establishment center-right tolerates the authoritarians on its flank, it facilitates their rise." 1/7

Today's Briefing: Joshua Landis @joshua-landis.bsky.social | R. Daniel Kelemen @rdanielkelemen.bsky.social | Shawna Kidman soundcloud.com/user-8304426...

📣 NEW PAPER My paper reviewing how Fidesz reshaped Hungary’s foreign policy—and, consequently, what the new Tisza government is now faced with—has been published by @carnegieendowment.org. 📖 Read the paper here: carnegieendowment.org/research/202... See the key takeaways below ⤵️

Really feels like Trump bombed the shit out of a country and then surrendered

Who knows if there will be a final agreement. But if there is, two things will be true at the same time: a) It's essentially surrender to Iran. b) We should be glad about it, because every day this insane, illegal war continues, we get weaker. 1/ Let me explain.

“Although it is exceedingly difficult for the democratic opposition to dislodge the leader of an electoral autocracy, Hungary is a reminder that it is not impossible,” write @rdanielkelemen.bsky.social and @dziblatt.bsky.social.

"How to Beat an Autocrat: The Real Lessons of Orban’s Defeat" By R. Daniel Kelemen and Daniel Ziblatt @foreignaffairs.com @rdanielkelemen.bsky.social @dziblatt.bsky.social www.foreignaffairs.com/guest-pass/r...

@dziblatt.bsky.social and I in @foreignaffairs.com on the real lessons from Hungary www.foreignaffairs.com/hungary/how-...

[video] International conference "analyses of illiberal regimes. deciphering democratic deconsolidation" @rdanielkelemen.bsky.social "Europe in the Upside Down: The Parasitic Architecture of Democratic Backsliding in the EU" youtu.be/B-DMGtXrHew?...

Trump is now sitting back in his chair and dozing off

This is a real test for the EU

Due to present myself tomorrow on “restoring the rule of law post backsliding” using EU/ECHR law. Conference programme available here: facdedroit.univ-lyon3.fr/colloque-int...

In Lyon to attend professor @rdanielkelemen.bsky.social’s (brilliant) keynote on Stranger Things and EU (Rule of) Law

Peter Magyar showing off brand new paper shredders in the Carmelite Monastery (formely Viktor Orbans seat) "Look what we have here! A brand new paper shredder. Comrades, what is this? You said theres no destruction of documents here. We're not gonna take it out now, its empty"

Zbigniew Ziobro was one of the authors of the attempt to transform Poland into an authoritarian regime. Ziobro is a wanted man with no passport. The Trump White House just went to a good deal of trouble to bring him to the US. snyder.substack.com/p/copycat-ty...

But he can make time for the important stuff, like golfing.

The New York Times editorial board: “Americans should be cleareyed about what the president is doing. He is taking their money and showering it on criminals.”

Great to chat Brexit options on @skynewsrss.bsky.social this morning

Magyar replacing Orbán on Europe day is quite something

I expect he’ll be on Republican speaking circuit - trying to rake in more cash. Maybe hanging out at Mar a Lago too

BREAKING: Viktor Orbán quits Hungary's parliament after 36 years – confirming my earlier scoop that he's planning a longer US trip this summer, where heads of the Orbán business empire – his daughter and son-in-law – already live, and where he could possibly seek refuge from prosecution.

Exclusive: It could take six months to fully clear the Strait of Hormuz of mines deployed by the Iranian military, the Pentagon has informed Congress. The timeline is perhaps the clearest sign that gas prices could stay high through the midterms.

"Magyar’s remarks at his first press conference as Prime Minister-elect were delivered in front of a wall of Hungarian flags bracketed at each end by that of the EU." Alexander Faludy anlayses Péter Magyar‘s landslide victory in the Hungarian parliamentary elections. ukandeu.ac.uk/how-hungarys...

🇪🇺🏳️‍🌈⚖️🇭🇺 A legal earthquake - CJEU finds Hungary to have violated EU law on multiple counts with its anti-LGBT+ legislation (as expected) but also for the first time in history, in an EU law-reshaping precedent, finds Hungary to violate Art 2 TEU in a self-standing manner.

1/ All the hallmarks of a neo-royalist lollapalooze. Syrian billionaire, ties to Kushner, sanctions relief, preferential contracts. This is not the rules based order or spheres of influence. Global politics is being run by court insiders. www.nytimes.com/2026/04/19/u...

NYT INVESTIGATION: As the Trump administration & Congress last year moved to repeal sanctions on Syria, the Qatar-based family that most stood to benefit was privately negotiating a real-estate partnership with Jared Kushner and proposing a Trump golf course in Syria www.nytimes.com/2026/04/19/u...