Simon Jeffrey

Simon Jeffrey

@simonjeffrey.bsky.social

Personal opinions about transport and devolution policy.

528 followers706 following2.6K posts

One reason families feel poor now is how brutal Osborne’s welfare cuts and reforms were. If Gordon Brown’s 2010 Tax Credit rules were still in place, a working family would get separate 11.5k + £10k 2nd earner work allowances (£5k household now). Family element up to £92k gross. Plus child benefit.

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Osborne benefit cuts have salted the earth for Tory support for 'aspirational' families. Not sure how often dots are fully joined up though. As ironic as Tories doing so by pushing up NMW hitting business and collapsing wage differentials.

Any big tax-reforming budget - or simply ‘aspirational’ budget - that applies to millions rather than thousands needs big benefit reforms. Raise work allowances, restore them for second earners, cut tapers a bit.

One reason families feel poor now is how brutal Osborne’s welfare cuts and reforms were. If Gordon Brown’s 2010 Tax Credit rules were still in place, a working family would get separate 11.5k + £10k 2nd earner work allowances (£5k household now). Family element up to £92k gross. Plus child benefit.

Personal allowance for NI and income tax would be not far off where it is now after freezes. Standard rate taxes 3pp lower. But higher rate kicks in far earlier and 1pp higher. Big cuts for most families, plus bills/housing costs.

A smaller thing I hope gets through is removal of Greenwich gyratory. Apparently still chugging along. The power of AI can visualise what that might look like, and bring back the good weather. A much better welcome to a world heritage site and major tourism/leisure destination.

I've always believed Oxford Street could be so much more than a road. Today we begin a new chapter as the nation’s high street goes traffic free, creating a place where people can spend time, enjoy the atmosphere and experience the very best of our city.

The other big central London schemes should be pushed through. Regents St/Piccadilly Circus/Haymarket, Soho, and Parliament Square. From the Southbank to Oxford Street, the West End would be transformed.

Not quite Haussmann in Paris but I reckon if another Mayor of London had managed it in a 12-year term they'd be in the running for a statue, or a bust at least.

Amazing visualisation of our grid and the balancing costs of renewables at the other end of the country far from equivalent demand. Clean but definitely not cheap for a long time yet.

Robin Hawkes@robhawkes.bsky.social

How did the grid react as Storm Austen and Storm Boelo passed through over the weekend? I pulled this together over the weekend. It's part of a new video format that I'm exploring to better explain what's going on within the energy system and the wider context surrounding it (such as the weather).

Find this type of chart to be most satisfactory way of expressing population and geography. UK suffers the hexagonal monstrosities when trying to improve on colouring in the constituencies.

Owen Winter@owenwntr.bsky.social

Brazil's election was decided in the densely populated south and north east

Sadiq Khan, when asked about Burnham reopening FoM discussion, refers unprompted to the Boriswave of low wage and permanent migrants. Not heard senior Labour figures use the term before.

‘Vucic is fired, your cronies are terrified’ Funny where a lower league chant on the terraces ends up.

Dejan Mihajlović@mihajlovicfreiburg.com

#Serbien, Novi Sad. Diese Stadt hat in den letzten beiden Jahren so viel ertragen müssen. Nicht nur das Trauma des Bahnhofsvordachs. Auch die Universität und Schulen standen unter Beschuss. Die Polizeigewalt letzten Sommer war hier besonders brutal. Ich freue mich so sehr für diese Menschen.

Thank God we don’t have a presidential system. Tends towards this shit. FPTP still shit (increasing FPTP part of the Orban anti-democratic play). But if Burnham can actually get us off that, we’ll be in a sweet spot.

FinTwitter@fintwitter.bsky.social

BRAZIL ELECTORAL AUTHORITY SAYS VOTE COUNT PAUSED AFTER SUPREME COURT RULING TO EXTEND VOTING HOURS

That’s a relief. It’s not a bank. There is no benefit pretending it is one to try and hoodwink the ONS.

EconReporter@econreporter.bsky.social

Reuters→ Britain will not join the Canada-led Defence Security and Resilience Bank, according to a source familiar with the matter, but the two countries said ‌they would develop a framework for cooperation between their respective defence-funding initiatives According to another source, the

Green grid is good. But cheap grid is better for decarbonisation at this point as marginal grid greening gets more £ and electrification cheaper & easier. The enemy right now is gas boilers, petrol and diesel engines and high electricity prices. Net Zero should take a ‘my enemy’s enemy’ approach.

Jan Rosenow@janrosenow.bsky.social

NEW BRIGHT SPOTS: Even on 100% gas power, heat pumps cut emissions by ~48% and EVs by about half. The authors of an “electrification doesn’t cut emissions” paper made a series of compounding mistakes and used misleading assumptions. Here's why. janrosenow.substack.com/p/heat-pumps...

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But bizarre that power gas still pays ETS carbon price which goes into wholesale price in this age of electrification and positively mad when domestic gas consumption doesn’t pay it ETS.

So let’s relax on the grid and its gas. The main enemies *at this point* are the things parked outside and sitting in a cupboard under the stairs. They love taxes and levies on gas turbines.

Green grid is good. But cheap grid is better for decarbonisation at this point as marginal grid greening gets more £ and electrification cheaper & easier. The enemy right now is gas boilers, petrol and diesel engines and high electricity prices. Net Zero should take a ‘my enemy’s enemy’ approach.

Jan Rosenow@janrosenow.bsky.social

NEW BRIGHT SPOTS: Even on 100% gas power, heat pumps cut emissions by ~48% and EVs by about half. The authors of an “electrification doesn’t cut emissions” paper made a series of compounding mistakes and used misleading assumptions. Here's why. janrosenow.substack.com/p/heat-pumps...

Get the green and social levies off electricity bills to get the spark gap under 2.5. Shift a chunk onto gas bills to reduce cost of policy and sharpen the gap. Just ensure nearly everyone’s home energy bill falls.

What’s the roadmap? Big smiles next month signing new UK-EU deal, announce immediate start to negotiations to go further with SM and FoM. In Spring next year, the outlines of that deal land. Burnham says ‘this is right for country but our manifesto means a new GE required. I have asked the King…’

Matthew Holehouse@matthewholehouse.bsky.social

A possible Zeitenwende from Burnham to Ben Riley-Smith: open to freedom of movement, no to the euro or Schengen

25million people displaced today. Quarter of a million dead this year alone. Ethiopia most deadly but probably least covered. Local tyrants mixed with Emiratis vs Saudis as key actors but Egyptians, Turks, Iranians and Israelis all involved too. Intertwined with Israel/US/Gulf vs Iran and proxies.

Horrifying but somewhat fascinating to see historic reconnection of Middle East and Horn of Africa into one geopolitical theatre, after a brief multi-decade period sitting in different buckets. Something horribly 30 Years War about it.

Simon Jeffrey reposted

Replying to @duncanrobinson.bsky.social

Wouldn't it be a good idea to give MPs a large staff to handle casework? Even better, we could give the caseworkers some degree of permanence so there was consistency between elections. We could have them in the empty premises that used to be occupied by local governments

Didn’t knew that France and Spain were with us (and the sun) on GMT before not opting back in after the Second World War. If we did nothing tonight, just kept BST over the winter, and French did nothing in March to not switch to CEST in the summer, we could be together again!

Similar issue with potentially tariffing Chinese EVs and delaying transition from ICEs. Worse than Jackdaw for Scope 1 and 2. (And if no price change then no impact on Scope 3). Painless substitution for one raged against by climate groups, painful and damaging adjustment for the other unremarked.

Fred Cowell@fascowell.bsky.social

In the long term this is way more destructive than Jackdaw, because it actively slows down electrification and weaning households off residual LNG consumption.

Simon Jeffrey reposted

In the long term this is way more destructive than Jackdaw, because it actively slows down electrification and weaning households off residual LNG consumption.

The complete lack of pies surprising. Steak and kidney is perfection, while steak and kidney pudding is even better as national dish.

YouGov@yougov.co.uk

What is the UK's national dish? Fish and chips: 49% Roast dinner: 24% Chicken tikka masala: 3% Curry (non-specific/other): 2% Full English: 2% Bangers and mash: 1% Cottage/shepherd's pie: 1% yougov.com/en-gb/articl...

Quite surprised how positive that is for Labour. Good indicator that just pointing at a high ‘supports Net Zero’ polling number probably includes a lot of people who do not support the really crunchy policies favoured by the most vocal proponents.

YouGov@yougov.co.uk

52% of Britons would support the government approving further licences to drill for oil and gas in the North Sea Support: 52% Oppose: 24% yougov.com/en-gb/daily-...

AIUI the main goal of this push is to get EU to extend delay introduction of 10% tariff on UK EVs beyond end of this year (already extended once) while UK gigafactories come online to meet rules of origin on batteries for UK EVs. But Nissan is fine now. JLR will be next year.

Chris Dillow@chrisdillow.bsky.social

The UK car industry was protected from Chinese imports for decades, by virtue of the latter not existing. If that wasn't protection enough, nor will tariffs be. This is an attack on consumers in the name of the politics of Cher: "if I could turn back time." labourlist.org/2026/10/put-...

The other threat is being excluded from Made in Europe. 1) Excluding UK very much not a done deal, whatever UK does on Chinese EV tariffs. 2) If EU excludes UK EVs from domestic subsidy schemes (the relevant mechanism here) UK can exclude EU EVs from its schemes in return.

Simon Jeffrey reposted

The UK car industry was protected from Chinese imports for decades, by virtue of the latter not existing. If that wasn't protection enough, nor will tariffs be. This is an attack on consumers in the name of the politics of Cher: "if I could turn back time." labourlist.org/2026/10/put-...

labourlist.org'It's time to put tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles' - LabourListBacking British automotive and supply chains and introducing tariffs on Chinese EVs would be the clearest sign yet that his government is delivering that ambition.

Simon Jeffrey reposted

The LPC by now will have sent their minimum wage recommendations for 2027 to the Govt. We'll hear about them in the budget next week. I was at their information gathering day, and did some charts on youth employment. Have written them up here. resolutionfoundation.substack.com/p/is-the-min...

resolutionfoundation.substack.comIs the minimum wage to blame for falling youth employment?Nye Cominetti digs into the youth employment stats, and gives his recommendation for minimum wage uprating

The biggest National Infrastructure Project we need to improve life and productivity in the UK might be migrating DWP off the mainframes, getting beyond Universal Credit’s limitations, and set up UK’s biggest payroll system that frees govt policy from limitations of ‘computer says no’

Simon Jeffrey@simonjeffrey.bsky.social

And the cruellest cliff edges in system like Pension Credit (poorest pensioners end up those who saved a tiny amount towards retirement) or 1:1 Carer’s Allowance* withdrawal are almost impossible to fix with the ancient DWP systems that make a hassle of cutting personal allowance below state pension

Disaster. Economic conditions worse, viability way down, then new Green council asking for higher social housing share. Net result=no new housing of any kind at all.

The Greenwich Wire@greenwichwire.bsky.social

Breaking news: The redevelopment of Lewisham Shopping Centre has been put on hold – halting plans to build hundreds of flats, student accommodation and a new mall. greenwichwire.co.uk/2026/10/20/l...

High personal allowance is a curse on our tax system - for govt coffers and higher rates/perverse cliff edges it demands elsewhere.

Anna Clarke@annaclarke.bsky.social

It's a great chart. But the big takeaway from looks to me to be that the large majority of people are paying a smaller proportion of their income in tax today, compared with 2009/10.

SM > CU. Trade deals and lower tariffs are a real thing campaigns can point to eg cheap Chinese EVs/more Australian beef. Should be pushing for a UK-Mercosur deal. And on enabling the zero tariff+quota access to CU we have, PEM would help to ease rules of origin limitations to that at the margin.

Steve Akehurst@steveakehurst.bsky.social

What pushes up and down on Rejoin, then? The main things that pull it <50% are: - any prospect (however theoretical) of Euro - Budget payments - Exiting trade deals (surprised me but maybe sunk cost factor) Freedom of movement a vulnerability but less potent than 2016 imo

Key thing Burnham lost by putting rejoin on the table as an (unlikely) outcome of talks with EU is being able to commit to ‘no more highly divisive referendums’ to reopen wounds as well monopolising the attention of govt/politics. Can get to Swiss+ without refs. See how an easy rejoin looks in 2035.

Chance for narrower discussions of pros/cons of each particular step. Consistent steps forward. Manageable change for business/govt. All take place within normal general election politics.

Simon Jeffrey reposted

London shouldn’t give Stormont any more money - extra cash has been perversely making things worse for the public. The Executive is an emperor with no clothes: It’s strutting around buck naked and far too many people who know this are silent.

belfasttelegraph.co.ukLondon shouldn’t give Stormont any more money — extra cash has been perversely making things worseThe Executive is an emperor with no clothes: It’s strutting around buck naked and far too many people who know this are silent

Had not realised that was actually the core of the Aurora plan when thinking through the mess of trying to get a heavily regulated private owner of a quasi-national infrastructure asset to control costs rather than maximise earnings under RAB.

Simon Jeffrey@simonjeffrey.bsky.social

Leverage needs a second operator. Alternative is ownership. So CAA treat Heathrow like the low risk utility it is, stop indulging 80% leverage or use of expensive holding company debt. Set WACC and fees for sensibly run airport, not knowingly indebted one. Govt/GLA offer fair price then.

If you’re really laser focused on growth the highest ROI comes from a change that costs almost nothing and can be delivered almost instantly: end the curfew, charge a massive, punitive, locally/London retained noise-linked levies for night flights.