stockfttp.bsky.social

stockfttp.bsky.social

@stockfttp.bsky.social

Energy, Transition, Maritime & occasional Politics.

1.5K followers468 following11.7K posts

stockfttp.bsky.social reposted

Plenty of snazzy dashboards out there, as well as tonnes (too much) of commentary - but this must be 'the' record wind curtailment event. 6-8GW of BMRS wind for maybe up to 36 hours straight. That's rather large.

stockfttp.bsky.social reposted

New from me: The US has faced a higher cost than any other country from the global Hormuz oil shock, with the crisis adding $160 billion to its fuel bill — or $471 per person on average — despite being the world’s largest oil producer.

stockfttp.bsky.social reposted

In the rush to build data centers, companies are starting to use their own off grid gas generators. This results in much higher emissions – 60% to 80% – compared with using their local electricity grid and risks locking in longer-term fossil dependence. www.theclimatebrink....

Great data drop from Robin as ever, inc eg this hellscape of the constrained Sco boundaries.

Robin Hawkes@robhawkes.bsky.social

How did the grid react as Storm Austen and Storm Boelo passed through over the weekend? I pulled this together over the weekend. It's part of a new video format that I'm exploring to better explain what's going on within the energy system and the wider context surrounding it (such as the weather).

Recovery of gas network costs during the transition: Consumers who have never had gas or left it for environmental reason are going to regard 2 in particular - potentially 3+4 depending on detail - as a low blow.

David Watson@davidawatson.bsky.social

1️⃣ continued recovery from consumers 2️⃣ recovery from a broader group of energy users, e.g. including electricity customers 3️⃣ government-backed mechanisms 4️⃣ some hybrid of these options

And I think 2 is electricity users. Future users of repurposed network assets is likely somewhat illusory. There are a limited pool of commercial entities and the economics of eg hydrogen & CCS look challenging enough is Gov actually going to let them face a real burden w/o recovery from consumers?

stockfttp.bsky.social reposted

Ofgem aims to have a single framework covering disconnections from the gas network in place from 2031. It has said little about what that framework will contain however, and much remains to be decided 🧵

Austen tracks too low to be interesting on generation (Sco quiet) Boelo looks to have strong winds widely so will be the first test (subject to ongoing Sco reinforcement constraints & the status of the big yet to commission Eng OFW) of 'winter' outputs.

bbc.comUK weather: Two named storms in two days as Austen and Boelo target UKThe Met Office has named a new storm, Boelo, which is set to bring another round of stormy weather to the UK over the weekend.

stockfttp.bsky.social reposted

BIG jump in China's exports of solar in September, far above any earlier month, except the export-tax-driven wave in March. Solar kit with annual power output equal to 10 large nuclear reactors exported in just one month. Media reporting wildly off as they used wrong metrics!

90% to Oct. Q1 forecasts are in the +25% range atm (Price cap assessment window 19 August 2026 - 17 November 2026) or rise from £1700>2150) w/ another small rise in Q2

Simon Evans@drsimevans.carbonbrief.org

NEW ANALYSIS: Expensive gas behind "nearly 90%" of rise in UK household electricity bills since 2020 + 77% of the rise in gas bills Contrary to what you've seen in media / political narratives, net-zero is "helping to shelter Britain from the impact of expensive gas", says @acjsissons.bsky.social

I just skimmed back at one data set. 3 years after they installed a heat pump, and with no gas consumption, some were still connected to and paying the standing charge for a gas connection. At times my fellow humans are strange 🤦

stockfttp.bsky.social@stockfttp.bsky.social

My memory of the data on HP installs was some people kept the gas connection (didn't want to give up their gas hob) but most of them disconnected it within a year or so. No doubt paying the SC for minimal use was an incentive to act.

stockfttp.bsky.social reposted

The Govt claiming we must drill more fossil fuels so we can use the tax revenues to fund the green transition is about as logical as a doctor telling you to smoke 2 packs a day to raise the money for your lung transplant You don’t put out a fire by pouring on more fuel 🔥#Jackdaw

Its that time to swap from my 🐙 summer PV export tariff* to a winter HP tariff IOF*, gives 🐙 🔋 control, for 24-27p/kWh exports in recent years. It was pulled to new customers after Iran. Will it return next year? Perhaps. But the story of the last few years & continuing through 2030 is

GWs of PV coming online. With PV flooding GB for 6mo/yr, & especially on weekends with low demand, the midday value of that solar has 📉 Even if/when the Iran war ends the golden age for exports may be over with the market devaluing PV & rewarding active 🔋 system imp/exp in events

stockfttp.bsky.social reposted

Power generation from coal and gas fell 1.4% in China in September, despite a steep drop in hydropower, as solar, wind and nuclear more than covered all additional power demand. Coal&gas fell for the third month in a row. Monthly China statistics 🧵👇

Is this a sop for the BUS being cut; we wait to see. Its a weakness but perhaps not surprising that they have excluded insulation after the shambles of the ECO scheme. Full fat plugin batteries still being in the weeds with a safety study is also going to cut off a segment of the market.

Josiah Mortimer@josiahmortimer.bsky.social

This will be a game changer if it's confirmed. Upfront costs are the biggest barrier to people getting solar (the article says the loans will cover PV) Our household has saved nearly £500 from May to October since having solar installed. It's the most effective bill reduction measure out there.

0.05% is their best scenario. The net present value as Doug implies is btw -£23.4bn and -£62.5bn

Doug Parr@dougparr.bsky.social

Well, he’s right in the sense there’d be economic growth - 0.05% according to UK govt’s impact assessment. Not much Same assessment also said the cost-benefit analysis, accounting for pollution, health impacts of noise etc would be negative by tens of billions of ££ www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

stockfttp.bsky.social reposted

Car manufacturers are no longer obliged to use green steel as redemption for combustion-engine cars, is the German-France proposal. Instead, rail (!!) will have to compensate!

Bundesumweltministerium@umweltministerium.de

Umweltminister Schneider zur Zukunft der Automobilindustrie: „E-Autos werden sich in jedem Fall durchsetzen, weil sie technisch überlegen sind und man beim Fahren viel Geld sparen kann. Unser Ziel ist, dass sie in Europa gebaut werden und nicht nur in China" www.bundesumweltministerium.de/ME11944

Every part of this is awful. 100% becomes 90% becomes 80% (w/ alternative fuels cobblers) Then they scrap the green steel investment requirement and finally engage in ludicrous bad faith that hybrid emissions shd be lab based not real world 🤦 All thrown away in a grubby stitch up over protectionism

politico.euLate discord delays Franco-German deal on Made in Europe, car emissionsThe draft pact supports tighter eligibility rules for non-EU countries to participate in public procurement and public support, and softens the 2035 combustion engine ban.

Installation rates are below the dotted line atm.

Simon Evans@drsimevans.carbonbrief.org

REMINDER: If govt cuts heat-pump grants, the UK will have to import a lot more gas In 2023, Energy UK said that'd cost an extra £3bn over 2026-2030, but gas prices today are roughly ~2x what they were at the time of the analysis…

stockfttp.bsky.social reposted

🚨 NEW | Electric cars saved oil-importing countries $20 BILLION in crude oil imports in the six months since the US-Israel war with Iran began ⚡📉 China saved an estimated $14 billion, while EU countries avoided $3.1 billion in oil imports. ember-energy.org/lat... 🧵1/2

The energy price cap was always a clunky tool that distorted the market. On a Standard Variable Tariff not too hard to setup but ToU is another matter Now shd be a moment for Gov to reconsider its merit; No luck sadly. ToU is not a natural bedfellow to Ofgem's instinctive micro management

View full thread

So what do we have; 3 options of Ofgem setting: 2 or 3 band tariffs w/ set prescriptive unit rates Type of use caps (set EVs or HPs etc) Enable suppliers to design their own ToU cap variants and police it after The last is the most flexible & pro innovation & hardest to monitor

We're dealing with more engaged users, I'd rather we dropped it altogether but we are where we are and the last option is the least worst. PS. Oh for the day we stop pandering to the Luddites. No you shouldn't get to choose to have a smart meter or not - ditto sharing your electricity data

ofgem.gov.ukofgem.gov.uk

The energy price cap was always a clunky tool that distorted the market. On a Standard Variable Tariff not too hard to setup but ToU is another matter Now shd be a moment for Gov to reconsider its merit; No luck sadly. ToU is not a natural bedfellow to Ofgem's instinctive micro management

Market Wide Half-Hourly Settlement is supposed to have migrated customers across by May. By exposing suppliers to the true costs of their customers demand profiles the incentives, previously blunted, to develop/push tariffs that avoid the evening peak will grow. ie ToU becomes more mainstream

stockfttp.bsky.social reposted

Earlier this year, E3G released a big report with the Department of War Studies at Kings College which showed that our dependence on gas is a major national security risk. Cutting heat pumps to fund defence is like not paying for a flu jab so you can buy lemsip. It makes no sense.

Yup. If the state wanted to do low income 🏘️ first it could, but it would have required a substantially larger budget than they were ever willing to commit Also from a purely 🍃 POV, the CO2 savings from a large (eg oil CH) (older) (generally wealthier) 🏡 will beat a small 🏠 often substantially

Rob Cheesewright@robcheesewright.bsky.social

This criticism of heat pump subsidies also misunderstands how energy (probably all capital intensive transitions) happen. First those that can afford to do so become early adopters. The people who bought the first $1,000 dollar Iphone paved the way for the rest to follow.