Gambling odds aren't polls! They're guesses based on investment! People who use the apps have aright wing bias and also are trying to win money! This isn't a graph of voting intention or models it's who people bet on which means nothing! People treating this shit as predictive is bad!
Brazil elected Lula again tonight. Poll averages appear to have had Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro effectively tied, maybe Bolsonaro up 1 on Lula — so not sure why the markets had this race at 80-20 Bolsonaro. Markets might miss big in the U.S. midterms in 9 days too.