Tim Chambers

The good news is that we are winning in court. The bad news is that we have to win every case. Trump only needs to subvert one election to break democracy.

Nobody has ever spent this much—neatly half a billion—on an election except when Mike Bloomberg dropped $1 billion on his own misguided race for president. newrepublic.com/article/2171...

After decades of the party avoiding explicit morality, Democratic midterm candidates are speaking of good and evil, @galbeckerman.bsky.social argues. He examines a new book by Susan Neiman, “Call It Evil,” and the potential for a moral realignment:

"We're campaigning for the AI vote now," Eric Wilson, a Republican campaign technologist, told me. Gift link to my story today on how voters getting information from AI is already complicating the midterm elections: www.theatlantic.com/technology/2...

Voters who Googled how to donate to Talarico got an AI answer that led them to give to a different senator. A network of fake news websites seeded messaging about state & local candidates that AI answers picked up on. My story on how the AI midterms are going: www.theatlantic.com/technology/2...

Abusing power and distorting DOJ to manufacture charges against a non-criminal because said true things the president doesn’t like = BAD Using up more of the regime’s limited prosecutorial resources on yet another likely-to-fail effort going after someone who has resources to fight back = GOOD

All I want for Christmas is a Fetterman-proof majority.

As President Trump spends the waning days of the campaign urging voters to pretend he's running, likely voters say by a 2-to-1 margin that their midterm ballot is a vote against him rather than for him: PBS News/NPR/Marist poll. More, via Opinion Today: opiniontoday.substack.com/p/261027

#earlyvote morning update 10/27: at least 32 million people have voted in the 2026 general election 🥳 election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2...

Am on morning edition today taking about the polls www.npr.org/2026/10/27/n...

Vučić is out in Serbia. Bolsonaro's family is not returning to power in Brazil. Machado is back in Venezuela. Great day for democracy! Up next, elections in Israel this week. Elections in the US next week.

In his acceptance speech, Lula says he will work to regulate digital platforms in Brazil. “Digital crimes must be dealt with like real-life crimes.” This comes after Meta directly interfered with the Brazilian elections, favouring Flávio Bolsonaro.

Not that long ago, three major lower-court rulings against the executive branch on three unrelated topics would’ve been a busy *month,* and outlets would’ve rushed to write up such a run of adverse rulings. Now, it doesn’t feel unusual when we get three on the same *day.* It’s all … exhausting.

A lot of dictatorships try to make these kind of arrangements when things go south. Important to remember there are other kinds of criminal, civil and reputational accountability pardons can’t touch. And if you’re pardoned you have no 5th amendment rights.

lol reminder that betting markets are extremely accurate measures of conventional wisdom

GOLDMAN: “.. we are starting to see clearer signs that the AI impact is spreading beyond the technology sector. .. the share of US firms that have adopted AI in regular business functions now shows a statistically significant negative correlation with employment growth ..”

👇

this might rank as one of the most important outcomes of the night if it happens. would give dems the ability to begin to make north carolina a democracy

For the fabulously wealthy, paying taxes is pretty much optional. They can borrow against their vast wealth, which is mostly an untaxed capital gain, without paying taxes. When they die, the capital gain goes to zero. And loopholes exist to bypass the estate tax too.

www.ajc.com/politics/202...

In battleground Senate races, almost 13% of Hispanic and 11% of AAPI early voters didn't vote at all. Compare that to 3% of white early voters. Why does that matter? In early vote analysis you have to consider if these voters would have just voted anyhow...

This year, solar will represent 10% of power generation. Abundant, clean energy is great news - but there's more work to do to make sure every community benefits.

Early voting just crossed 30 million That’s 30 million Americans casting ballots before Election Day, while Trump’s DOJ unsuccesfully runs around trying to throw ballots out The courts are one line of defense -- the ballot box is the strongest one, & your vote is how we hold it -TN

Today, our election research team published our updated (from 2024) framework for understanding how most rumors that sow doubt in election processes mislead. A lot of what we see is on that right side of the graph, real issues that get wrapped into false rumors. uwcip.substack.com/p/spot-the-l...

BREAKING: 9th circuit rejects DOJ's desperate appeal in California ballot case days before the election. https://www.democracydefendersfund.org/news/ddf-responds-to-ninth-circuit-ruling-every-eligible-voters-ballot-must-be-counted/

Voters favor Democrats over Republicans by 47% to 36% when asked which party they would pick for ​Congress, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll. www.reuters.com/world/us/tru...

Texas Early Vote Tracking: Day 7 As of Oct. 26, 2026 Total votes: 4,342,999 (+285,094) 43.9% of projected final turnout. Modeled 2026 Vote: 🔵 James Talarico: 45.5% - 54.9% 🔴 Ken Paxton: 42.9% - 52.3% VoteHub currently rates the race as Tilt D.

The sleeper issue that could decide the U.S. Senate race in Texas: The race between Ken Paxton (R) and James Talarico (D) has revolved around the issue of government corruption, a top voter concern just behind the economy. 🎁Gift article: wapo.st/4zTDqgX

Deceive. Disrupt. Deny. The Trump administration is wielding the full power of the federal government against our own elections but Americans are pushing back. 👉 Here's how to spot the strategy and take action to protect our right vote: protectdemocracy.org/actions

Is my ballot secure? Can federal agents seize ballots or voting machines? Can anyone stop the vote count? You have questions, we have answers. Check out our Election FAQs page here: https://protdem.org/midtermFAQs

BREAKING: the 9th Circuit REJECTED the DOJ’s desperate attempt to prevent 20,000 votes from being counted in CA Tomorrow, @democracydefendersfund.org @campaignlegal.org NAACP & @lulacorg.bsky.social address the merits head-on in District Court This is a major win for voters in CA & everywhere! -TN

Early voting is underway in nearly every state (more details below). Have you voted yet? I urge you to do whatever you can to get out the vote in your communities and vote as soon as you can.

Israel is just 2 days away from a critical election, and thousands of protesters are filling the streets of Tel Aviv demanding Netanyahu’s removal! They’re demanding accountability for October 7 security failures and an independent commission of inquiry.

My team is very proud of this deep dive research we did with @ifpg.bsky.social into over 151 thousand AI answers and 1.5MM citations to real world election questions for last months. The trends and highlights in this early report is just the first early findings - with more to come!

Why undecided voters probably won’t care about Trump’s closing message. (@gelliottmorris.com) More, via Opinion Today: opiniontoday.substack.com/p/261026-top...

This is the second report from IFPG, revealing the work conducted by Dewey Digital. Dewey Digital has created new tools & software to discern AI's understanding of candidates & campaigns, as well as the algorithms driving AI responses to voters. innovatingforpublicgood.substack.com/p/new-analys...

Donald is not pulling wool over Americans' eyes. 76% disapprove of Trump’s handling of gas prices, and nearly a quarter of Americans say Trump is corrupt and enriching himself, his family, and his donors.

77% of Latino registered voters who support a Democratic candidate for their district in the House of Representatives say it really matters who wins control of Congress. About half of them say they are extremely motivated to vote.

🚨BREAKING: Democratic candidate Mary Peltola and her party asked a federal court in Alaska to throw out DOJ's unprecedented lawsuit that seeks to preemptively block certification of Alaska’s U.S. Senate race if the Republican incumbent loses. www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/...

There you have it.

The long-serving strongman leader of Serbia, Aleksandar Vucic, conceded defeat on Sunday in an election that pitted him and his right-wing party against a diverse student-led opposition movement that spent two years protesting his government. https://to.pbs.org/4dYoAgA

It's really important to pay attention to the fact that Lula beat the fascist candidate not by compromising and trying to meet fascist voters in the middle, but by sticking to his guns, promising prosecutions for election interference, and mobilising his own voters to turn out in greater numbers.

This is also a huge black eye for Marco Rubio too, who has wanted to reshape Latin America into right-leaning governments

“Look it up” is no longer enough. As RAND warns, “False statements are more likely to be accepted if backed by evidence, even if that evidence is false.” AI search can make a lie look verified - reinforcing it just as someone tries to check it. willrobinson.substack.com/p/when-looki...

In the mad rush of data crunching I forgot to post a Maine update last Friday. Here it is belatedly. Maine looks a lot like Iowa, Kansas, and Nebraska. Early turnout is up, most for registered Democrats and unaffiliated voters, but also for Republicans michaelmcdonald.substack.com/p/maine-earl...

“prediction market”

You be the judge. Which ballot is more confusing? The courts said too bad about the one on the right, btw

Texas Early Vote Tracking: Day 5 As of Oct. 24, 2026 Total votes: 4,057,905 (+553,367) 41.9% of projected final turnout. Modeled 2026 Vote: 🔵 James Talarico: 45.4% - 54.9% 🔴 Ken Paxton: 42.9% - 52.4% VoteHub currently rates the race as Tilt D.

🚨BREAKING: A federal appeals court appeared skeptical of the Trump administration’s bid to stop California from counting ballots from more than 20,000 people the federal government alleges are “likely” noncitizens. www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/...