Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte

Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte

@turnbulldugarte.com

[trying to spend less time on social media] #ihadablackdog https://youtu.be/XiCrniLQGYc?si=q-gQTNXfScmgtl4k

5.6K followers1.3K following1K posts

Pinned

Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte
@turnbulldugarte.com

Happy, alongside @emiliabelknap.bsky.social, to make my debut contribution with the fantastic folks at @ukandeu.bsky.social Emilia & I use data from @britishelectionstudy.com to correct the atomistic fallacy in people's understanding the Reform UK gender gap ukandeu.ac.uk/most-british...

ukandeu.ac.ukMost British young men reject the far right - UK in a changing EuropeEmilia Belknap and Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte explain their analysis on the demographics of Reform UK voters in the UK. They argue that while the dominant narrative is that young men are the most likely ...

Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte reposted

Alexandre Afonso
@alexandreafonso.bsky.social

A coordinated social media effort is believed to have won the election for Lula: I trawled its 10-million-strong WhatsApp group to uncover a playbook for the left: alexandreafonso.substack.com/p/inside-lul...

alexandreafonso.substack.comInside Lula’s Army: A Playbook for Algorithmic WarfareI went through 1,151 text messages and 104 voice notes coordinating 10 million Lula sympathisers. Here’s a playbook for how the left can fight elections online.

Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte reposted

Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte
@turnbulldugarte.com

I am contractually obligated to tell you that I wrote a book and that it is out in February. February is LGBTQ+ History Month - serendipitous timing for those who want to host an event for students and staff to mark the occasion of the month ;) Call me, maybe. www.therainbowvote.com 🏳️‍🌈🗳️

Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte
@turnbulldugarte.com

I am contractually obligated to tell you that I wrote a book and that it is out in February. February is LGBTQ+ History Month - serendipitous timing for those who want to host an event for students and staff to mark the occasion of the month ;) Call me, maybe. www.therainbowvote.com 🏳️‍🌈🗳️

Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte reposted

Leonardo Carella
@leonardocarella.bsky.social

"Political correctness gone mad", but political correctness now is that trans people don't exist.

Leicester Gazette@leicestergazette.leicester.news

Two University of Leicester students speak out over ‘absurd’ and ‘Orwellian’ decision by the BBC and ITV Studios to edit out pride pins worn on University Challenge

leicester.newsBBC edits out pride pins on University Challenge in ‘Orwellian’ move* * * This story was published by **The Leicester Gazette** : a local, independent newspaper about Leicestershire. 1,000 people have already joined our community. Just use those buttons below to download our app and **sign up for free**. * * * Astrophysics student Samuel Carlier and History student Emmeline Hague-Wright were shocked to find that their LGBTQ+ pride pins had been edited out of their University Challenge appearance earlier this year. The episode, initially scheduled for BBC Two on 24 August, was delayed twice before airing on 7 September 2026. The pins showed the progressive LGBTQ+ pride flag, the bisexual pride flag and a rainbow feather. Speaking to the Leicester Gazette, Sam said: “Living in a liberal democracy and having the state broadcaster tell you ‘we’re editing how you look’, seems very Orwellian.” Sam described the choice to remove the pins before broadcast as “weird” and “absurd”. He said: “[Censoring] that seemed weird. If I had worn a rainbow shirt, would they have censored that? If the idea is to keep things impartial, where is that line in the sand?” A side by-side image of Sam wearing the pin and with it having been digitally removed. Photograph: supplied Sam contacted the BBC to try to understand why his pins had been edited out. He told the Gazette: “The BBC people said they’d ring me, and I chased them, they just said go to the complaints website and file a complaint there, that’s what I did.” Since then, Sam hasn’t had a response from the BBC as to why his pins were removed. After the episode had aired, Sam noted that his shirt ‘melted’ into itself occasionally, as a result of the editing. Photograph: supplied ## Students believe the decision was made following online transphobia Emmeline was also shocked when she found out that the feather pin she wore was due to be removed from the episode she was in. It was understood by Emmeline that there was online transphobia in response to previous episode of University Challenge, and she had been contacted by the BBC, anticipating support from the broadcaster. When the BBC contacted her, instead of an offer of support, she was told her pin was going to be removed. “At first it was mostly confusion,” she said. “I heard that they had received a lot of nastiness online from people and I thought they were going to call me to say ‘we have support services if needed,’ and that wasn't what I got at all.” Instead, Emmeline was notified that the episodes were going to be delayed. “It was out of left field, I was confused for a while,” she said. “This entire delay has been because of a feather and two badges on a teammate that were basically impossible [for viewers] to see.” Emmeline had expressed her frustrations with the repeated delays from the BBC, spanning from mid-July to early-September. She said: “We were announced on the website and then delayed again, and then announced on the website a second time, and delayed even further. Speaking about the removal, she said: “It takes a lot of time” she said. “Making it [the edit] look good would be even more expensive and time-consuming. It seems like drastically a lot of effort.” ## Join the conversation Our app is more than just a way to keep up – it's a gateway to award-winning journalism and the local community. __Want to support our work?__ Click here for membership__.__ ## Wider criticism on LGBTQ+ support The pins Sam wore during the episode. Photograph: supplied According to leading LGBTQ+ charity Stonewall UK, two in five LGBTQ+ students will hide their identities at university for fear of discrimination. Stonewall has reported that more than 36 per cent of trans students have received hostile conduct from university staff due to their gender identity. Reflecting on the digital removal of the pins, Sam spoke about how disheartening the choice was. He said: “There was maybe like a span of eight years where someone could be uncontroversially out in the open queer – now that’s gone again.” he said. The BBC has also been widely criticised for ‘an attack on the LGBTQ+ community’ by pulling its involvement with the popular show, RuPaul's Drag Race. The broadcaster pulled its involvement in September following “significant financial pressures” as the reason for axing their involvement. The criticism follows another recent controversial edit by the BBC. On its hit show, Strictly Come Dancing, a decision was made to edit out ‘Protect the Dolls’ from contestant Bethany Antonia’s T-shirt. It’s a slogan which has become widely used to support the rights of trans women. The BBC defended their decision, saying the changes were made to meet editorial guidelines. It comes as the LGBTQ+ community has faced challenges amid an increasingly less tolerant political climate. ## What the BBC had to say When we asked them about editing out the pins worn by Leicester’s University Challenge team, a BBC spokesperson said: “In line with our editorial guidelines, we advise that no badges, flags, and emblems or symbols are worn or visible during filming, along with clothing with obvious branding or slogans. If such items are not removed for any reason then a decision is made between the programme makers and the BBC regarding any edits to the programme.” The BBC said the delays to the episode were unrelated to the decision to edit out the pins. A spokesperson for ITV Studios said: “University Challenge is an entertainment quiz show and is made in accordance with the BBC Editorial Guidelines requirements for impartiality.” The University of Leicester refused to comment on the matter. * * * **Before you go…** We’ve recently surpassed 1,000 subscribers, which is amazing considering we’re a small team on a shoestring budget. Now, we’re ready for the next stage of the Leicester Gazette. **Download our new app and get all of our journalism anytime, anywhere.** The app connects with **Bluesky** , **Mastodon** and **Threads** , giving you access to a network of around 60 million people. It’s a safer, more meaningful alternative to mainstream social media – owned by the community. * * *

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Princeton University Press
@princetonupress.bsky.social

🚨 1 week left to apply! 🚨 The 2027 cycle of our Book Proposal Development Workshops seeks applications from authors in the Social Science & Humanities fields. Grantees will participate in the 3-part virtual workshops with coaches Michelle Boyd & Leslie Wang.

Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte reposted

Rahsaan Maxwell
@rahsaanmax.bsky.social

Immigrants and immigration are under attack everywhere. My forthcoming book looks at the other side, to examine the people who actually support immigration in Europe. cambridgeblog.org/2026/10/beyo...

cambridgeblog.orgBeyond the Cosmopolitan Elite: The Hidden Depth of Pro-Immigration Support in EuropeEvery day there is a media story about public opposition to immigration fueling the populist far-right in Europe. Academic public opinion research has a similar slant, with endless studies about why p...

Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte reposted

Jasmin Rath
@jasminrath.bsky.social

📝 New paper in Party Politics (open access) with @lukashetzer.eurosky.social @janberz.bsky.social @wurthmann.bsky.social @sarahwagner.bsky.social 👇 journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/... When a mainstream party accommodates the radical right, do its potential coalition partners pay too? 🧵

journals.sagepub.comSage Journals: Discover world-class researchSubscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.
Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte
@turnbulldugarte.com

Updating my slide-deck for tomorrow's internal-party-politics class. I suspect the gap between member-sourced and donor-sourced income will be dwarfed for Reform when I repeat this task in a years' time and the Ben Delo donation appears in the 2026 accounts filing.

Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte reposted

Zach Dickson
@zachdickson.bsky.social

Thrilled to see this out at APSR on FirstView 🎉 doi.org/10.1017/S000...

doi.orgPublic Service Decline and Support for the Populist Right: Evidence from England’s National Health Service | American Political Science Review | Cambridge CorePublic Service Decline and Support for the Populist Right: Evidence from England’s National Health Service
Zach Dickson@zachdickson.bsky.social

Thrilled that my paper (w/@sarahobolt.bsky.social,@catherinedevries.bsky.social,@simonecremaschi.bsky.social) was accepted at the American Political Science Review! We find that declining public services fuel support for the populist right — and show why the right benefits more than other parties 🧵

Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte reposted

Daniel Devine
@danjdevine.bsky.social

Inheritance taxation is unpopular, even amongst people who are unlikely to ever have to pay it. Why? In four different studies - experiment! panels! behaviour! - @cvalebeek.bsky.social and I show political trust is a strong predictor for support for the tax. www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

tandfonline.comPolitical trust and inheritance taxation: evidence from four studiesInheritance (estate) taxation is a potentially powerful instrument for reducing inequality and raising state revenues, yet it attracts opposition well beyond the small minority who will ever pay it...

Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte reposted

Joe Noonan
@joenoonan.se

How did Europeans react to Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs? New registered report (forthcoming, JEPS): a UESD design using a Eurobarometer survey in the field when the tariffs hit. US favorability fell 2.9 pts No change in EU attachment No shift in support for retaliation or rules-based trade

Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte reposted

Daniel Devine
@danjdevine.bsky.social

❗ There's a permanent, research and teaching lectureship over at the University of Surrey in the broad area of behaviour, attitudes, parties, etc. jobs.surrey.ac.uk/Vacancy.aspx...

jobs.surrey.ac.ukJob Vacancy at the University of Surrey: Lecturer in PoliticsThe University of Surrey is a global community of ideas and people, dedicated to life-changing education and research. We are ambitious and have a bold vision of what we want to achieve - shaping ours...

Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte reposted

Leonardo Carella
@leonardocarella.bsky.social

In other words, a 10 percent contraction in one of Britain’s most successful exports. If it were steel or fish or other infinitely less profitable sectors, people would be having a meltdown.

Times Higher Education (THE)@timeshighered.bsky.social

Visa applications to study in the UK fell by 10.3 per cent for the key recruitment month of September, new Home Office figures show. @jgro-the.bsky.social reports #highered #visas #internationalstudents #edusky https://ow.ly/3LSs50ZVPAE

Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte
@turnbulldugarte.com

Three years ago VOX underperformed compared to their 2019 ceiling. We won't see this in Nov - they will pass 2019 this time. I would wager we also won't see the below-avg. turnout we saw in 2023. Election during mass protest seems pretty inductive for high turnout blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2...

blogs.lse.ac.ukSocial democracy resists and the far-right flops in Spain - LSE European PoliticsSpain's 2023 general election produced vindication for the country’s Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez, and a major defeat for the far-right party Vox.
Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte
@turnbulldugarte.com

Folks don't like it when you call the Spanish right "Trumpian" (although I'd tent to place Madrid's Ayuso unambiguously in that camp). But here you have the leader of the opposition casting doubt on the trustworthiness of postal voting.

elDiario.es@eldiario.es

Feijóo pone en duda el voto por correo: "He sido presidente de Correos, confío en los carteros, no en los directivos" www.eldiario.es/politica/fei...

Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte
@turnbulldugarte.com

Excited to present this talk tomorrow. If you're interested in attending drop me a DM and will share the link.

Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte@turnbulldugarte.com

Do LGBTQ+ individuals take a nativist turn after Islamist violence? Does the general pop. increase support for the LGBTQ+ community? We, with @wurthmann.bsky.social & @grahn.bsky.social, answer these Qs with a pre-reg. RDiT around the Berlin attack which I'll present at the next QPW on Oct 8th.

Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte reposted

Bookshop.org
@bookshop.org

Anti-Prime Day starts…NOW! 🥳 Today through midnight on 10/7, enjoy free shipping site-wide, all while supporting local, independent bookstores.

Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte reposted

Frederik Thieme
@frederikthieme.bsky.social

Why do green parties struggle electorally despite widespread support for climate action? My new (first 😱) paper explores why green parties remain uniquely challenged in economic crisis & that the mechanism is not only about sociotropic concerns, but also voters’ pocketbooks 🧵 doi.org/10.1017/S147...

doi.orgPocketbook politics and climate action: How economic strain reduces support for green parties | European Journal of Political Research | Cambridge CorePocketbook politics and climate action: How economic strain reduces support for green parties
Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte
@turnbulldugarte.com

Sánchez calls early elections. All those televised 'no' votes will be seen again in some campaign ads soon. www.rtve.es/noticias/202...

rtve.esSánchez convoca elecciones anticipadas el 29 de noviembre: "Ha llegado el momento de decidir qué futuro queréis"Sánchez convoca elecciones anticipadas el 29 de noviembre: "Ha llegado el momento de decidir qué futuro queréis"
Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte@turnbulldugarte.com

You might not like him, but Sánchez knows how to play Spain is experiencing mass protests on housing crisis. Sánchez says: let's accelerate intro. of two reforms. Congress says: you don't have enough votes. Sánchez says: suspend e-voting in congress & make every MP stand up on camera to say "no"...

Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte
@turnbulldugarte.com

You might not like him, but Sánchez knows how to play Spain is experiencing mass protests on housing crisis. Sánchez says: let's accelerate intro. of two reforms. Congress says: you don't have enough votes. Sánchez says: suspend e-voting in congress & make every MP stand up on camera to say "no"...

RTVE Noticias@rtvenoticias.rtve.es

🔴 El Congreso acepta la petición de PSOE y Sumar de que los decretos de vivienda se voten en voz alta y por llamamiento

Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte reposted

Tarik Abou-Chadi
@tabouchadi.bsky.social

For my new research unit Politics of Democracy at the Berlin Social Science Center @wzb.bsky.social, we have 3 open research positions. 2 postdocs: 4 + 2 years (100%) 1 doc: 2 years (75%) Starting date: 1 March 2027 (negotiable) Application deadline: 1 November

Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte reposted

Queer Politics Webinar
@queerseminar.bsky.social

Happening next week! 👀 📆 Be sure to mark your calendars for our first presentation of the programme

Queer Politics Webinar@queerseminar.bsky.social

😯 Today we got exciting news! 🌈 Next month we kick off our 2026-2027 programme with @turnbulldugarte.com! He will present his quasi-experimental evidence on Islamophobic backlash in queer citizens after the Berlin Pride attack. 📆 Be sure to join us on October 8!

Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte reposted

Ben Yoel
@benyoel.bsky.social

How do elections in backsliding settings shape attitudes toward democracy? @gabrielagreilinger.com and I fielded two surveys: 1 pre/post & 1 after Hungary's election. In short, elections appear to increase satisfaction among winners, even months after. Working paper: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

papers.ssrn.comDemocratic Attitudes When Backsliding Reverses: Evidence from HungaryIncreasingly, opposition actors in settings undergoing democratic backsliding have been able to unseat anti-democratic incumbents. But unseating an anti-democra

Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte reposted

Alessandro Nai
@alessandronai.bsky.social

You know those (rare) papers that really make you proud? In new piece out at APR, we show that #AffectivePolarization likely spills onto other types of non-political polarization - notably, PREFERENCES FOR CATS VS. DOGS (aka “affective PAWlarization”) paper: tinyurl.com/jn48bypp data: osf.io/4p2zu

Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte reposted

Werner Krause
@krausewe.bsky.social

Happy to see our new paper on mainstream-to-challenger defection in print! w/ @denis-cohen.bsky.social & @aigneranna.bsky.social Check out Denis' summary below! Thanks to @nilssteiner.bsky.social, @conradziller.bsky.social & @ackermannk.bsky.social for organizing this SI! tinyurl.com/5aa9wrmb

Denis Cohen@denis-cohen.bsky.social

📄 New paper in @electoralstudies.bsky.social: “From the center to the fringes: A comparative test of attitudinal explanations for mainstream-to-challenger defection” 👥 with @krausewe.bsky.social and @aigneranna.bsky.social 🔗 doi.org/10.1016/j.el...

doi.orgRedirecting

Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte reposted

Daniel Devine
@danjdevine.bsky.social

Happy weekend! This Saturday brings you the rare joy of a 🙌job🙌 in: surveys! democratic attitudes! experiments! three years!! research only (if you want)!!!! with @rikkidean.bsky.social @sotonpolitics.bsky.social !!!!!! www.jobs.ac.uk/job/DTB393/r...

jobs.ac.ukResearch Fellow - Political Process Preferences in Europe (PoPPiE) project at University of SouthamptonApply now for the Research Fellow - Political Process Preferences in Europe (PoPPiE) project role on jobs.ac.uk - the leading job board for higher education jobs. View details.

Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte reposted

Marius Sältzer
@msaeltzer.bsky.social

Our colleague and friend Philipp Köker has left us and i can't begin to order my thoughts. I hope I can express to his family the feeling of loss we can't beginn to understand, but attempt to share. rundblick-niedersachsen.de/politikwisse...

rundblick-niedersachsen.dePolitikwissenschaftler stirbt überraschend mit 40 JahrenPhilipp Köker, habilitierter Politikwissenschaftler und Experte für die Erforschung politischer Institutionen, ist im Alter von 40 Jahren überraschend gestorben. Die Nachricht hat in Kreisen der Unive...

Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte reposted

Daniel Devine
@danjdevine.bsky.social

Interested in a politics PhD? If you also have a penchant for watching passenger ferries up close and/or excellent project supervision, then @sotonpolitics.bsky.social is ideal for you. You can apply for full funding from @scdtp.bsky.social southcoastdtp.ac.uk

southcoastdtp.ac.ukWelcome to the South Coast Doctoral Training PartnershipAn exciting collaboration between the Universities of Southampton, Brighton and Portsmouth, the South Coast DTP aims to deliver the latest developments in training in research methods and skills to pr...

Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte reposted

Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte
@turnbulldugarte.com

Far right parties strategically increase the (descriptive) representation of women assuming it helps them win votes in general and, in particular, from women. Does it work? In this short descriptive piece, I show the answer in the case of Reform UK is a clear ‘no’ doi.org/10.1332/2515...

Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte
@turnbulldugarte.com

Bivariate regressions and less than 2K words? Your first year undergrads will thank you. doi.org/10.1332/2515... I'll even throw in an infographic explainer video.

Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte@turnbulldugarte.com

Far right parties strategically increase the (descriptive) representation of women assuming it helps them win votes in general and, in particular, from women. Does it work? In this short descriptive piece, I show the answer in the case of Reform UK is a clear ‘no’ doi.org/10.1332/2515...

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte
@turnbulldugarte.com

This is the first descriptive paper in a wider project on testing the downstream effects of gendered electoral strategies used by the far right. We have an experimental working paper for those with a fetish for more causal work.

Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte
@turnbulldugarte.com

Comparing success measured in different ways (winning, vote share, being the runner up, or beating the Tories) there is no descriptive evidence that far-right women performed better than far-right men. This ‘null’ is not because women are placed in tougher constituencies as sacrificial lambs

Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte reposted

Rikki Dean
@rikkidean.bsky.social

🚨 Job alert 🚨 Come and join me and @paul-kindermann.net researching European process preferences. 3-year postdoc @sotonpolitics.bsky.social with travel and training budget. Potentially of interest to those attending #EPOP2026. Details at: jobs.soton.ac.uk/Vacancy.aspx... #polisky

jobs.soton.ac.ukJob Opportunity at the University of Southampton: Research Fellow - Political Process Preferences in Europe (PoPPiE) projectWe are delighted to welcome applications for the position of Research Fellow within a new ERC-funded research group on Political Process Preferences in Europe (PoPPiE): Rethinking Conceptual, Ontologi...
Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte
@turnbulldugarte.com

If you are unsure what #EPOP2026 panel to attend tomorrow, I can suggest dropping in to Flex 1 tomorrow afternoon (14:00-15:30). You can hear me make as many phallic puns as I can while explaining why size matters for gender attitudes.