Joe Noonan

Social desirability bias is smaller than most people assume. In Blair, Coppock and Moor's (2020) metanalysis found clear effects only for (1) Support for auth regimes (in autocracies) and (2) vote buying. www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Social desirability bias is smaller than most people assume. In Blair, Coppock and Moor's (2020) metanalysis found clear effects only for (1) Support for auth regimes (in autocracies) and (2) vote buying. www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

"Contrary to views of authoritarian parenting as a stable, exogenous disposition, such attitudes can also evolve during campaigns, as voters take cues from elites." Evidence from a five-­wave panel study during Brazil's 2018 presidential campaign. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

I'm excited to share the dataset behind my book project: the Japanese Municipal Elections Dataset (JMED)! 👤 223,561 candidates 🗳️ 21,111 elections 🗾 2,027 municipalities 🗓️ 2005–2025 Explore the map or download the data: charlesmcclean.com/jmed/

Five days left to submit!

🚨Publication alert🚨Interested in authoritarian regimes, electoral behaviour and migration politics? This paper "Voice After Exit" @polbehavior.bsky.social is for you!

Made a very basic experiment with ChatGPT promting it to act as a critical reviewer for 25 bogus DID-papers. It thought 100% were brilliant and should get an RNR. Repeated it 50 times, similar outcomes every single time.

Remains poorly understood that humans hallucinate more than frontier AIs at this point bsky.app/profile/matt...

Interesting. Of course, humans judge sample was only N=3, and they only read the reviews, not the paper itself. But I have the suspicious that the pattern will hold even with larger tests. The problem is how AI would be able to judge a truly novel idea, though the same is true for humans.

This sounds like a great initiative from @cpoliticaub.bsky.social, junior scholars apply!

📢 Call for Papers: Barcelona Political Science Colloquium for Early Career Researchers (BPSC) PhD & postdoc researchers: present your work in Barcelona and get in-depth feedback from senior faculty at @cpoliticaub.bsky.social 🌍 ⏳ Deadline: 2 November 2026 👉 Apply here: forms.gle/apuVZsQ5827M...

If you work on the consequences of AI, consider applying for these great positions and come join us in Madrid next academic year!

(It's odd how reluctant we are in pointing out that politics today is mostly a consequence of what happened in the three decades of fastest technological innovation in human history, as opposed to this or that jump in inflation or growth slump well within the range of historical business cycles.)

I don't think it is reasonable to ask for specific model versions in AI disclosures. If you work on a paper for 2 years you will probably use 20+ different models just by using the most recent one. Should we also report what ever Gemini model Google uses for the AI search overview?

I don't think it is reasonable to ask for specific model versions in AI disclosures. If you work on a paper for 2 years you will probably use 20+ different models just by using the most recent one. Should we also report what ever Gemini model Google uses for the AI search overview?

Yeah but can the digital twin work a fax machine?

🗓️ 𝐃𝐨 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐨𝐫 𝐲𝐨𝐮𝐫 𝐬𝐭𝐮𝐝𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐬 𝐝𝐨 𝐬𝐮𝐫𝐯𝐞𝐲 𝐞𝐱𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐬? On 12/3, I'm hosting a free, 1 hr. online seminar called, "Doing Better Survey Experiments" from 1pm - 2pm (ET). Please help spread the word if you can! 🙏 instats.org/seminar/doin...

Yeah but can the digital twin work a fax machine?

In recent years, a growing literature studies the transnational learning of far-right populists’ electoral successes. But what about the electoral victories of far-left populists? My paper that tackles this question is now out @electoralstudies.bsky.social

New post on why the French are (always) unhappy, backed by some European Social Survey data alexandreafonso.substack.com/p/why-are-th...

Having a daughter does not influence politicians’ ideological positioning or their propensity for female-favoring policies link.springer.com/article/10.1...

I have some metaphysical questions about this subject line

my research proposal

Does politics drive cultural preferences? 🎤 👩‍🎤 Estelle E. Brun & Taylor C. Boas examining voting behaviour in the #EurovisionSongContest, using individual-level data to allow to distinguish political influences on ESC voting behavior from cultural attitudes and song quality buff.ly/ZcqurjZ

How did Europeans react to Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs? New registered report (forthcoming, JEPS): a UESD design using a Eurobarometer survey in the field when the tariffs hit. US favorability fell 2.9 pts No change in EU attachment No shift in support for retaliation or rules-based trade

Planning to submit to EPSS 2027 Copenhagen? Check out our section details for all the information you need for your abstract submission! epssnet.org/conferences/...

Seems pretty amazing for multi-country experiments...

Open Access paper up now over at JOP A couple thoughts in this thread... www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...

Our paper introducing the US Secretary of State Speech (USSOS) Dataset (1997-2026) is now live on ArXiv! This was a labor of love, so we hope folks in IR/CP/AP/non-poli sci folks find it useful. A Shiny app will be out in a few weeks. All comments/suggestions most welcome. arxiv.org/abs/2610.19529

📜 New paper out in @electoralstudies.bsky.social! If you've always found Norris and Inglehart's cultural backlash theory of far-right voting unconvincing, I can confirm your skepticism – at least in the European context. Here, it has both theoretical and empirical flaws. doi.org/10.1016/j.el...

📢New paper in @thejop.bsky.social on the reciprocal nature of citizens’ support for democratic transgressions. Together with Hannah Werner & @annakern.bsky.social , we show that when confronted with violations by political opponents, citizens’ support for transgressions by their own side doubles!

I'm hiring a research assistant (~pre-doc) to work with me on a range of projects about digitalisation and political behaviour in Africa. The position is open to full or part time, with options for remote working. Deadline 12th Nov. Any questions please get in touch! bss.au.dk/en/about-aar...

It will be fascinating to see how this changes the evaluatory standards in social science. There has been a premium on rigorous causal inference. Claude makes this way easier. Hard to know what the signals of high quality research will be in the future.

Very proud of this piece with @tommasopavone.bsky.social, now out at JOP, where we use the empirical setting of Slovakia - an eroding democracy with a recent experience of backsliding - to gauge the potential of the past to affect present-day attitudes: www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...

Feeling very creatively fulfilled after spending a little bit too much time on Canva, hand-crafting this poster containing the PAPERSS line-up for the coming season. (@primavera-sound.bsky.social, I’m open to freelancing opportunities btw) Keep an eye on our socials for more updates!

#jobs #stellenangebote #GESISjobs #jobfairy Pursue your career at GESIS! youtu.be/zMY2zqYFIMg WE ARE HIRING! 👉Postdoctoral Researcher (Salary group 13 TV-L, working time 100%, limited till 31.12.2028, subject to approval) 🔗gesis.jobs.personio....

Three years ago I wrote a guide to using ChatGPT for research. I gave the example of this prompt which didn't work at the time: “Using Worldbank data, make me a chart of the GDP growth from 1960 to 2020” Now Claude can do this in like 45 seconds.

New paper in @electoralstudies.bsky.social! “Polling and parliamentary representation” with @drphilphil.bsky.social & @aikowagner.bsky.social We ask whether voters systematically responded to public opinion polls during the 2025 election campaign in Germany. doi.org/10.1016/j.el...

It will be fascinating to see how this changes the evaluatory standards in social science. There has been a premium on rigorous causal inference. Claude makes this way easier. Hard to know what the signals of high quality research will be in the future.

You can inform people (correctly) that refugee pop'n is more female than they think, and they'll accept that, but they don't change their views about refugees impact on crime or the economy