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OpenAI is considering drastic price cuts to compete with Anthropic. OpenAI cannot under any circumstances afford this pay cut. This is fundamentally insane. www.wsj.com/tech/ai/open...

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Anthropic is also considering price cuts. What’s the plan, geniuses? Lose money but make it up in volume? You can’t afford this!

It's like Walmart's famous "lost leaders" (high viz goods they lost money on but that gave the impression they were a discount store) except it's losses all the way down.

They gotta make like $100B in 2027. Given there's mebbe 7B people on this benighted rock, which means that with 100% subscription, they need to get about $1.20 per person per month for _everyone_ on planet earth. If they're just going after Americans, that's about $28/mo, assuming 100% subscription.

But probably more than that. I suspect the addressable market in Asia and Africa is... significantly less than 100%, especially since China has its own AI models, and there are a significant number of Americans who just aren't interested (at least, not enough to pay for it).

Also a bailout is typically a short term payment to help keep a business afloat until they can stabilize. AI companies have never been stable and won’t stop needing money any time soon. It would need a new record bailout every few months with the hope these companies eventually make profit.

Oh is that right? You think? You think reducing your pricing while your costs stay the same might have a negative effect on Anthropic and OpenAI’s margins? That’s crazy man

i feel like it should be called something other than "profit margin" if it's in the negative. or at least "eroding profit margins" is clearly the wrong image to use in this context. more like "sweeping them out to sea, out of sight of the shoreline of profit margins" :p

Because VC money and their patience for throwing said money into an incinerator are both infinite as Sammy Altman knows. VCs would never ask "when do we start making a return on investment?" or cut off a clearly losing bet.

"an early test of the strength of both companies' business models" their business models seem to be burn investors money like there's no tomorrow until they magically make a profit. At least the Underpants Gnomes has something substantial when they stole the underwear and made no profit.

People who vaguely remember 2008 and the aftermath kept hearing about bailouts without remembering the details and have a trauma response like the bailouts are hiding under the bed or something

May not be a plan but Govt are looking at some kind of backstop due to China, keeping stock mkt humming. Even if it is implicit 'nationalisation' of key industry components. Something is going on ... bsky.app/profile/enig...

enigmajx #FBPE@enigmajx.phantomjinx.org.uk

Aaron Parnas had the following news item in his newsletter. Socialising AI's debt / profits (?) (& losses) is on the agenda: "Trump says he plans to meet with major artificial intelligence companies as soon as next week to discuss a proposal that would allow Americans to share ..." 1/4

you're imagining scenarios because you don't want to think about the actual outcomes of what i'm saying, it allows you to intellectualize something that's actually very stupid and think the world runs on logic versus chaos and greed

I've mentioned this before, but I really think it bears repeating that Sam Altman's business plan is essentially "create god by feeding a predictive text algorithm every sentence that has ever been written, then ask it how to make money."

I, for one, welcome the race to the bottom before the financial implosion. This will be a whacky case study. I'm not sure what the hell we are doing anymore. We have this Sword of Damocles around these IPOs, and I'd like to get it all over with. We saw the SPCX prospectus... Anyways.

Ah I see we’ve hit the “destructive competition” part of the American railroad history comparison after “explosive buildout of unnecessary infrastructure”

Two words: Bail out They are super chill about losing money nonstop. They will go for the bailout card anytime. And taxpayer money is the best money because nobody will complain about losing it again. That's why the orange clown is president

It is simply institutional and elite accumulated capital being put to use to convincingly win this era of class warfare. They just have to last long enough to sufficiently immiserate the masses

This is like a knife fight between OpenAI and Anthropic where they are stabbing themselves as fast as they can. Neither of them can afford for growth to stall, it's as good as death. Anthropic cutting prices now sounds like trying to kill shot OpenAI while they're weak.

That pushes back any timeline, no matter how fantastic, for profitability. Offering token billing but at too low a price is just as bad as subscription pricing without limits.