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New piece: Trump’s approval rating among low-engagement voters has fallen 30 points since Jan, the worst decline for any group. The GOP’s big advantage with hard-to-reach voters has evaporated as economic turmoil & toxic politics turns them away from Trump www.gelliottmorris.com/p/what-do-di...

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Managing to piss off even the people who don't read the news is the sign of a truly incompetent president. It is really hard to piss off the people who don't even want to be informed.

So in your worldview, activism, protest, strikes, other kinds of direct action: they don’t exist? They don’t work? People who feel regret can’t work to fix things? Like, ever? Because people DO protest even in authoritarian systems and protests DO work, a thing I have witnessed directly.

They can work, but Republicans will never remove him. They’re 👌 this close to the dictatorship they’ve worked towards for decades. Hopefully one or both chambers flip in the midterm election because you can’t vote your way out of a dictatorship one it truly has taken over.

I find it fascinating that you’re looking at the coming dictatorship with dread as if the rule of law has not already been killed and yet you’re also operating under the assumption that there will be free and fair elections next year without mass protest and direct action?

I’m a little surprised by that, but great news. I knew the moderates and independents who are paying attention would turn on him. It’s been 100 days of chaos and evil, and it would be hard to miss even with MSM’s “both sides” approach. But why would those who aren’t paying attention? Interesting.

Is it GOP decline, though? Do they understand these are the underlying principles of modern conservatism, or do they they think it's just Trump? That's not even getting into blue maga, Dems acting conservative, and how that turns off non and low info voters.

I do not think the conclusion is driven by a mode effect (specifically from non-prob online data). Pew picked up the same thing in their probability-recruited panel. Magnitude of effect may be noisy from sample size and external validity problems, but I'm confident about the trend

Yeah but that cohort are mostly unhappy he hasn’t deported millions already. They were hoping the news would be all about “illegals” whisked off to work camps and crying children sent to sweat shops for life.

They did. NYT was running headlines saying Trump would make IVF free. Every news org was saying he wasn't connected to Project 2025, repeating his random, pie in the sky policy lies. They all sanewashed him. People should not need a poli-sci degree to vote. They were failed by the system.

I find it laughable that a degree in anything was required to realise it was a mistake to vote for the guy that literally said he would be a dictator. 2 functioning brain cells would suffice normally, i guess that was just too high a requirement for +70 million people.

Who said anything about a degree? In the US, access the higher ed is limited to the privileged, decades of conservative cultural rot has taught people higher ed is about getting a job instead of learning. If you can get a decent job without it, why care? Society says you shouldn't.

It’s still going on! Major news organizations have all the information they need to track imported goods and asses if and when there will be shortages on basic staples. And they simply…don’t cover it.

One or two news outlets have kind of mentioned that Christmas orders are low at the time of year a big headline could matter. Instead, they'll wait till September or October when nothing can be done, and we are deeper in the facsist hole. A total failure of their job. It's always months too late.

By far the most intriguing part of this chart for me is the enormous difference between the "hardly at all" and the "only now and then" groups. I'd be really interested to try and dig deeper to see what's going on there.

Woulda been cool if the media had hammered the consequences of tariffs as hard as they hit Joe’s age or pardoning his son or Hillary’s emails or some sophomores’ protest signs or the plague of trans people or literally anything ever. Oh well.

When you cut your budget change your spending decide to cut costs bc the US economy is a mess: TELL YOUR VENDORS THAT IT IS ALL ON TRUMP AND THE GOP Tell them, in detail! These low information voters won’t know that it is trump & the GOP that are costing them your business unless you tell them!

I think there's room here to connect this to the turnout environment too. Low info voters switching sides looks more dangerous for Trump now but the lowest engagement voters dropping out of the electorate entirely may be worse for Trumpism going forward.

A better idea is to engage them on the things they care about earnestly, instead of constant bait and switch. They get engaged when progressive ideas are championed and implemented. Trump lied about having progressive ideas this round, and many mistook pandemic aid for being from him.

I'm also very interested in what the effects of the GOP's voter suppression tactics will be now. Those tactics target the low-informed, low-engagement voter by creating unnecessary hurdles. So did MAGA shoot themselves in the foot?

I could see a scenario where something about the modern info environment keeps low information voters somewhat engaged and voting even if they hate politics but could also see one where they get disillusioned with Trump and just stop and we go back to something like a 90s electorate.

While I opposed the SAVE Act on principal, making it way harder to vote by requiring a bunch of documents that it takes time and money to obtain won't cut the way the GOP thinks it will, I don't think