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This is an interesting premise. Potentially the hard part might be in the checks and balances around the fraud aspect you mention. Potentially setting a bar for payout, for example tie it in with package security best practices, a min package age, min number of verified dependents.

Obviously to a degree those things are game-able and finding a set of criteria that isn't might be tough, but it might make or break the concept in the era of AI agents.

I’ve jokingly said this to many people, much of the OSS I maintain is akin to a great Dev product and in any other time it would probably be a very profitable company. Even 0.001 per download would make a big revenue for a lot of these

The sad part is that npm won’t evolve to do this and the two sided network effect of a new registry won’t be feasible as long as they exist.

Coming from someone who has built a lot of products aimed at developers and eventually never published anything due to getting discouraged by AI. Most of my effort goes to OSS anyway and realising the profits coming forth from OSS comsumer is disheartening

I love a blog post where I can't find anything I disagree with. Nice job. That said I have questions: 1. Have you run any numbers to determine how viable this would be and how much it would actually impact maintainers'/contributors' income as opposed to those other streams?

3. Are the payout distributions appropriate in any existing "second half of your solution"? In a project with many contributors, is a maintainer worth more than a contributor? What about projects with much more complex governance?

Only that the ballpark is "billions" as opposed to the ~100m currently on offer. It's at least an order of magnitude more money, but depends enormously how they price it.

"how they price it" can also impact the industry's choice of default (companies, like developers, do have the ability to ragequit and change vendors), so this is a delicate game to play. 🤔

Analysis is spot on! 🎯 But the exact choke-point to meter, and who does it at what price point, will remain a tight balancing act. I’m still amazed Docker managed to pull it off. And what the companies pay for (security, private packages, etc) will remain something else than what gets funded (code).

You don't do it in code. You rely on the legal framework. Source is free. Binaries/packages are licensed separately and require a maintenance fee. Companies are used to paying for inputs. They have whole departments dedicated to paying invoices and conforming to license agreements.

Doesn't work with copyleft code. Not that you can't charge for it, but because you can't attach restrictions on redistribution. Permissive licensed code could allow it in theory, but this still essentially assumes tiered releases

As I mentioned in the post, the ESS is against this happening, despite several high profile attempts. How do you avoid competition from unencumbered copies?

This looks like it would be something GitHub would implement and not a third party by way of EULA scanning. That doesn't work for the broader open source / free software ecosystem.

Should work just fine across the entire OSS ecosystem. The EULA works with the very strict FOSS guidelines. Took a good bit of time with a lawyer to get that all correct. :)

Bravo - fantastic piece. This is something I’ve thought about a lot, as someone who builds both indie commercial and open source software. I can’t help but feel there is a middle ground for some, but it often starts with the proper license at the outset - rather than a change midstream.

Seems like a great idea. I wonder if payout could be contingent on some added promises from the packages - signed publishing etc. That way companies are not just paying for access but also for some baseline security guarantees. Easier pill to swallow perhaps

Have you considered what perverse incentives this might create? One thing that comes to mind is devs would choose not to archive/deprecate a package, since that would reduce their income. "Don't use this package anymore, it's [bad/broken/whatever]" would not happen anymore

I suppose, but it would also foster competition for better forks and alternatives. Wouldn't hurt if the registry listed similar dependencies to avoid abandoned defaults.

That's true, might incentivise competition. I would worry the registry recommending other packages would be seen as putting their finger on the scales, influencing who gets paid.

Also interesting to point out, the fact that the default registry for games was curseforge who became greedy/stale was replaced by an open-source version modrinth. npmx could for example implement a reward program

> Nobody wants a bill that goes up every time CI reruns. It's funny because actually, nobody sells CI for free (once free tier reach) so a bill goes up. And despite that, people make CI shorter because the costly part is waiting. I think people don't like this just by principle and not by economics

Docker revenue did not come from registry it was purely for Desktop. Most customers were using Artifactory etc for production stuff. We did spend a bunch of time discussing buying Tidelift when they were for sale and it could have been a great fit in some ways.

This is an epic crack at the argument, well done. I think modeling a real example is next to making this How does a metering event modulate value to a package? Tons of variables here each with a chance to create a weird incentive And then from package to real hands, how might money be split? Etc.

The Spotify economy is the perfect citation, especially because it touches on AI, complicated rights per song, the motives of recommendation engines, metadata integrity, lookalikes, etc But also are we trying to reward Shakira or new artists

Maintainers probably become very formal here, maybe arbitrating how money gets split. But then there’s a crazy international income tax thing if they are passthroughs not to mention a lot of other laws and embargoes if dollar amounts get scaled up

This was a very interesting read, thank you. It boggles my mind how much relies on people willing to labor for free. My partner loves backpacking, and a couple of times a year, she joins other volunteers who spend a few days doing physical labor to clear the trails.

I appreciate you writing all of this. Especially the diagnosis at the beginning 🎯 I am lightly skeptical of the medicine you propose tho. Just on the practicality of “for profit company” being handwavy or reminiscent of unlikable ASCAP chasing down bars & restaurants for their background music.

It's the same with most free for personal use licenses? Corps could theoretically use a personal license for enterprise use. But they pay because they don't want to expose themselves to (much costlier) legal risk

I guess my reading of the piece is: complex/tiered licenses are not successful. Maybe software+license != service+tos ... but they seem analogous to me. I guess the "find out" is whether a tiered TOS would lead to package manager competition, where "we give it away...profit" is re-attempted.

I guess the piece addresses this with "Won't companies just switch to a free mirror?" If I play the scenario out, I imagine my infra provider (who I try to consolidate services to) would bundle a mirror, and I'd just pay them. I dunno. I don't disagree with the piece. But change is scary.