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Labour's support has splintered. Over 1 in 5 of their 2024 voters are now undecided. Labour could win these back, but there is a risk. The Conservatives lost a similar amount to indecision after the last 3 elections, and they won most back in 2017 and 2019 (but not 2024).

Labour's next biggest losses are to left-liberal parties (Liberal Democrats and Greens). Reform's growth in support has mostly come from the Conservatives and non-voting (much less from Labour). These reflect patterns of party-bloc voting that we saw in the 2024 UK GE: tinyurl.com/y5pv7thw

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Presumably, Labour's plan was to usurp the Tories and become the centre-right party of choice in the UK? Or the current leadership are just very right wing and believe in right wing/free market only policies? Comes to the same thing, I guess. But clearly they're heading electorally in the wrong 》》

Labour also faces more direct competition from left-liberal parties for the voters that they've lost to indecision. These Lab -> undecided voters like the Liberal Democrats, Greens, and Plaid Cymru a lot more than they like Reform UK and the Conservatives. So, these party blocs matter.

Labour's strategy since the election seems designed to appeal to right-conservative voters. This strategy hasn't worked on its own terms because they have lost the (very few) right-wing voters that they had, while also losing (much) larger numbers of left-wing voters.

Nice to see this set out in detail but the real message was visible from space whatever Labour strategists think to the contrary. Imagine running a strategy to finally destroy the Conservative Party and only achieving your own self - destruction…

This is a blemish on an otherwise good study. Asking people to specify a preferred "Level of Immigration" just weights the answer towards right-wing views and splits/distorts the rest. Similarly, asking if Labour are good/bad on immigration lumps together people with polar opposite views.

Labour's slump is significant. Labour’s vote has splintered between indecision and other left-liberal parties, with its rightward shift yielding little gain. Labour's main competition for their 2024 voters are other left-liberal parties. They have time to win them back, but a tough path to do it

I don't know how the question was asked to respondents,but I'd suggest how the results are presented is ambiguous. My #1 reason for disliking Lab now (+ them losing my vote in next year's local election) is "Immigration" - but not because "small boats" but because they are illiberal and xenophobic.

What I'm seeing in the immigration graph is that around 13% of the UK voted Labour while answering 0-3, 15% did while answering 4-6, and 6% did while answering 7-10 - and the dropoff in Labour support in the first group is especially steep.

The complete collapse of Starmer's Labour is the latest and clearest example of why the liberal obsession with "let's just all work very hard to get the neoliberal corpocrat elected and everything will be fine". There's compromising, which is good, and then there's capitulation to these ghouls