Christy Quirk

Christy Quirk

@cequirk.bsky.social

Opinion research and advocacy/political strategy in declining democracies and emerging autocracies. Don’t ask questions you don’t want the answers to. Nice, FR

2.6K followers344 following3.6K posts

Sheep, and transhumance, in Roma

New Lines Magazine@newlinesmag.bsky.social

NEW: For millennia, shepherds have herded their flocks through Rome to graze, adapting to modernity and the urban landscape. But the coexistence of sheep and humans is becoming more fraught, writes Federica Rossi for @newlinesmag.bsky.social newlinesmag.com/reportage/ho...

Christy Quirk reposted

Where freedom is forged: Ukrainian women redefining military service #ELLE Ukraine has unveiled a new print issue featuring women who are challenging stereotypes and shaping the future of Ukraine’s defence forces. Read more of their stories on the official website. 📷: ELLE Ukraine/Sashko Yavir

Christy Quirk reposted

The left all over the world needs to stop whatever they’re doing and pay very close attention to what just happened in Brazil. In a matter of 3 weeks, an organic, grassroots movement was born, took back social media, reclaimed the mantle of fun in politics, and won the election in the process.

Christy Quirk reposted

Nothing can be done without accountability. Nothing. There were no consequences for the war on terror’s transgressions and look where that got us. There were no real consequences for an armed attempted overthrow of the government and look where that got us.

Acyn@acyn.bsky.social

Kamala Harris: I think that going in the direction of impeachment is not a good idea. I was in the Senate for the last go-round, and the votes aren’t there. I think after the election, we all have to just also agree that our attitude has to be to get stuff done…

Christy Quirk reposted

Among things Meta did in Brazil was have their AI bot within WhatsApp allow users to generate election poster for Flavio but deny requests to do so for Lula. When folks asked for posters for invented candidates, AI tagged them with #22 - Flavio's # - in a country where folks vote by #.

Indivisible ❌👑@indivisible.org

In a joint letter to Mark Zuckerberg, ranking members of the House Oversight and Judiciary committees wrote “corporate censorship of political speech raise[s] serious concerns about Meta’s dedication to ensuring free and fair elections.”

Christy Quirk reposted

FTFY: "Men have no business sending unsolicited nude photos to women."

The Downballot@the-downballot.com

Justin Pearson's response: "Men of faith––let alone men who are married, in their fifties, and in public office––have no business sending unsolicited nude photos to women."

Christy Quirk reposted

I emailed Patrick Healy, assistant managing editor for standards and trust at NYT, to ask why their story about a House report with new details of rape allegations against the President of the United States included neither those details, nor a single use of the word "rape." archive.is/1s9AM

Christy Quirk reposted

‘Lustration’ is one of the most fraught concepts in transitional justice. It will be fascinating if Serbia tries it. The reformist wing in Ukraine wanted it after Maidan, but they were too often sabotaged by the corrupt remnants of the ancien regime. Hell, even Germany didn’t do it properly.

Jasmin Mujanović@jasminmuj.bsky.social

Dejan Šoškić, the former head of Serbia's central bank, is one of the more serious candidates to be the country's new PM. He has suggested lustration, in particular of Vucic's expansive party-oligarchs, will be a priority for the/his new government.

Christy Quirk reposted

If there is to be a regional 'viral' effect from Serbia's elections, it is (sadly) not likely in Bosnia's RS entity. It's Albania where PM Rama is facing off against the most protracted opposition to his own increasingly illiberal rule since coming to power in 2013.

Christy Quirk reposted

Lot of fear of people lying to polls. We don't have much evidence for it & don't need it to explain error. People uncomfortable sharing their choice are more likely to be in the now ~98% of people who don't respond than to take ~20 min survey to lie. Non-response much bigger deal

Christy Quirk reposted

Replying to @gabrielagreilinger.com

In fact, this is the hallmark of competitive authoritarian regimes: elections still exist, but they are unfair (skewed media landscape, regime pressure, etc.), while there is also distrust and anxiety over whether the regime will accept defeat.

If you want to learn more about the Zuckerberg/Facebook vs Brazil dynamic and can stomach the author's shock over all the gambling in the casino at which she was a senior executive, pick up Careless People.

You can play by the old rules and lose or play by the new rules and defeat these f***ers

Bruno Dies@brunodias.dev

What's striking to me are the rules of engagement and the methodology of action here, which more or less is predicated on burying liberal delusions about "debate" or the "marketplace of ideas". The rules were ultimately very simple: amplify your own message and suppress your opponent's.

Christy Quirk reposted

Any talks/negotiations about a post-war security arrangement for Europe need to start from the indisputable fact that Russia’s neighbours have an acute need of protection from Russia whereas Russia has no demonstrable need for protection (and it already has nukes for that).

Christy Quirk reposted

Replying to @jakubjaraczewski.bsky.social

Both catalyst events paved the way for new opposition movements - the Student List in Serbia, built out of outrage over the Novi Sad catastrophe, and TISZA in Hungary, assembled by Varga's maverick ex-husband, Peter Magyar. While these parties differ in character, their origin stories are similar.

Christy Quirk reposted

Replying to @jakubjaraczewski.bsky.social

This event became, for many, emblematic of the Vučić era: Serbia falling apart, literally (check), shady foreign investment (check), authorities doing nothing to materialise any accountability (check), and provided the spark that started a fire.

Christy Quirk reposted

Ćalciland this morning. That's the former goon squad camp in front of the National Assembly in Belgrade. Masked men in black arrived at 7.30pm last night - then legged it when Vučić conceded. The Student List supporters cleared out the camp. For the first time in 18 months, it's safe to walk here.

Celebrate today. Get to work tomorrow. Be patient for the next few months.

Jasmin Mujanović@jasminmuj.bsky.social

The election results in Serbia are good news for the security and stability of the entire Western Balkans, as Vucic was the chief architect of virtually all major disputes in the region. That said, the Student List is a heterodox coalition. We should not expect...

Christy Quirk reposted

Lula winning is great for the planet, great for Brazil, and great for people who aren't revanchist assholes everywhere in the world, but let's not forget that it's also going to make some of the worst people on Earth extremely sad and mad. We should enjoy that, as a little treat.

Christy Quirk reposted

A few basic points as we await results from Serbia later today: a. It is unlikely that we will have a clear winner tonight. Turnout is looking impressive, and Serbia’s ballot counting is slow at the best of times. High turnout also suggests large mobilization by the opposition...

Christy Quirk reposted

If still debating whether Donald Trump or Elon Musk willfully crippled Ukraine's missile defense, helping to slay innocent civilians, you are a rube. If the U.S. President had no role, then an oligarch governs national security. If not, the U.S. President serves Russia. Both answers are mortifying.

Christy Quirk reposted

The question is: Why did Trump derail peace talks?

POLITICO Europe@politico.eu

Czech President Petr Pavel says a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine was “quite close” – until Donald Trump lifted sanctions on Russian diesel. 🔗 vist.ly/5pjp8

Christy Quirk reposted

Trump and Musk are just stringing Ukraine along and letting Russia attack it with impunity. And the American press is foolishly falling for blue smoke and mirrors, arguing whether Musk or Trump are responsible. Hint, they both are!

Christy Quirk reposted

From someone who has lived in Ukraine over 30 years (me), this is bullshit. Hundreds of billions didn't flow to Ukraine - Ukraine's oligarchs made their (relatively modest) fortunes by ripping off Ukrainians, not foreigners. Ukrainians are fighting to stop this happening again.

One of the world’s worst jobs

John Hudson@johnphudson.bsky.social

New: The widespread confusion over the state of U.S. support for Ukraine is also impacting the U.S. embassy in Ukraine, where U.S. diplomats have raised questions internally about where Washington stands, per an internal memo:

Christy Quirk reposted

Who is ultimately responsible for throttling of Ukraine's access to Starlink? Musk? Trump? Hegseth? Honestly, I'm not sure which is the worst scenario here. All of them are terrible, but each in different ways. Europeans need to take note. So does the United States.

Interesting dynamic, if it holds up

G Elliott Morris@gelliottmorris.com

New: Low-info voters, who put Trump in the White House, now look even more anti-Trump than high-info voters, and give Dems bigger margins on the generic ballot. 1 out of 3 Trump voters who can't name the party in charge of Congress now back Dems for 2026. www.gelliottmorris.com/p/poll-low-i...

Christy Quirk reposted

Replying to @gelliottmorris.com

Basically, the FiftyPlusOne team now has extensive enough sourcing and the data chops that if you're doing bad shit with polls, we are going to find out about it.

Christy Quirk reposted

What the Attorney General of the United States seems to not understand, but the people who matter do, is that Congress hasn’t given DOJ any authority to block states from certifying the election. This isn’t a thing. And we don’t have to pretend it’s a thing just because he says it’s a thing.

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com

🚨🚨🚨 Q: Is there any scenario in which DOJ would try to block states from certifying the election? AG TODD BLANCHE: Yes, of course. It is not DOJ's intention to improperly interfere with elections or the state certification process, but ...

Christy Quirk reposted

Christy Quirk reposted

Replying to @spavel.bsky.social

With the illusion of UNLIMITED productivity, that forcing function is gone. Now you can just ask Claude to slop up the idea you thought of on the toilet, and feel like you've done something. It's basically the equivalent of thinking that poasting is praxis: a quick dopamine hit mistaken for impact.

@english.lemonde.fr story about the man arrested for burning Limoges city hall has it all: Hodei C. D.'s grandfather had been a Spanish anarchist: "Hodei's father is a revolutionary anarchist, it's a legacy from the Spanish Civil War. They don't care about the left." www.lemonde.fr/en/france/ar...

lemonde.frBurned French town hall: What we know about the arrested suspectThe man arrested after the fire that destroyed the historic building in Limoges amid protests is a 34-year-old carpenter who lives in a rural environmentalist and anarchist community.

Christy Quirk reposted

The POTUS and VP hyping the Acton ad is like Springfield “eating the pets”. You think the guys at the highest levels won’t go so low — surely they’ll leave the gutter swimming to their minions — but no they will absolutely go to the depths. You have to conclude, they like it.