Constantin

How it started. How it's going.

“We should not fear Russia's defeat. We should fear a world in which Russia comes to believe that it cannot lose.” - Marko Mihkelson, Estonian MP news.err.ee/1610056219/m...

Extremely interesting

Not to mention that production costs in the US are much higher than in many EU countries, such as Poland. “It will be 10 percent,” he argued, and cost “billions and billions of euros” to replace America’s nuclear deterrent.”

The same Russia that calls NATO an enemy now relies on NATO’s proximity as protection. Source: United 24

2000 Meters to Andriivka was snubbed by the Oscars, but it's still the absolute best documentary of modern warfare. When the soldiers who survived stood up after the film's premier in Kyiv last summer, they received a 15 minute standing ovation. Watch here 👇

Zelenskiy is right. Putin's shadow fleet operates freely in the Baltic. German and Italian firms transship lots of goods to Russia. And the EU can't even seize Russia's frozen FX reserves. If you don't stand up for yourself, people will keep kicking you... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/das-recht-...

Like FPV drones taking down Russian helicopters was not enough, the Ukrainian SOF have taken it even further. For the first time in history, a Russian military Mi-8 helicopter has been shot down by a guided deep-strike drone FP-1. 200km from the frontline, Kuteinikovo Rostov region of Russia.

US security guarantees expired with the Budapest Memorandum Frankly worthless

Another proof that someone can be both a moron and a billionaire — sometimes even the president of a country. Here’s Trump promising that future prescription drug discounts will somehow exceed 100%.

A boy from Shostka, Sumy region — a city under Russian attack. Our little hero. Ukrainians are a strength that cannot be defeated.

The rise in very long-term government bond yields (red) is happening everywhere. For sure there's idiosyncratic trouble spots like Japan, France and the UK, but what's playing out is far bigger than that. Fiscal policy globally has been too loose for too long. That is now having consequences...

Quick reminder that there are literally endless ways for the EU to stick it to Russia. Stopping the flood of goods to Moscow via all kinds of transshipment hubs would be a start. Shutting down the shadow fleet in the Baltic is another. You just have to want to and the EU clearly just doesn't...

Just sent out this free post. Russia attacked Poland last night--and the NATO response indicates institutional and national failure. They were clearly not prepared, cannot even call the Russian attack an attack, and do not understand their real security concerns. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

It seems only a matter of time before more drones appear over the Baltic states or Romania.

Updated EU Wall of Shame: new all-time high for Dutch exports going to Kyrgyzstan in latest data for May '25. Countries in orange clamped down on transshipments to Russia. Countries in blue refuse to. The EU is deeply broken. Short-term greed overrides medium-term security. Spare me the moralizing.

Two days ago, russians killed this girl.

The EU "Wall of Shame"

Hi all, I published my latest Substack post earlier today, offering an initial assessment of the FP-5 Flamingo’s specifications, lethality, survivability, and strategic implications. Access the full post via the link below: missilematters.substack.com/p/the-flamin... Short summary below. 1/6

Do not bet on Trump being able to force Ukraine to accept Putin's surrender terms.

If you haven’t seen it yet, our team has released one of our largest investigations to date, revealing the scale of Chinese involvement in Russia’s Shahed drone program - a program that would be impossible without China frontelligence.substack.com/p/shaheds-do...

Budapest? Not everyone may remember this, but in 1994 Ukraine already got assurances of territorial integrity from the US, Russia and the UK. In Budapest. Maybe I’m superstitious, but this time I would try to find another place.

People in a warzone showed up immediately to protest in defence of democracy and stand up to their government's attempt at impunity for corruption. Ukraine continues to lead the way. #3E

🕯️💔Never forget! Never forgive! Photo from the funeral for a tiny victim of russian terror. Evgeniy Maloletka. Ukraine. Kryvyi Rih. Russia is a terrorist state!

A fun fact: the USSR (much more capable of absorbing losses than Russia) has lost 118 fixed-wing aircraft over a decade of fighting in Afghanistan, while 138 Russian fixed-wing aircraft have so far been destroyed and 20 more damaged since the start of the 2022 invasion of Ukraine

For some reason, Trump is unable to prevent this conflict, yet he supposedly could have prevented the war in Ukraine had he been president.”

WE COULD HAVE SENT ALL OF THIS EQUIPMENT TO UKRAINE AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH I HATE THIS ADMINISTRATION SO MUCH THESE STRYKERS SHOULD BE IN KURSK

In the past 3 years, I've tracked a rise in EU exports to out-of-the-way places like Kyrgyzstan. This is obviously transshipments to Russia. If Russia knows how to do transshipments, China can certainly do the same to circumvent tariffs. Today's substack: robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-china-...

I’ve been shown unreleased footage of Sunday’s SBU drone attack. I can confirm at least two A-50 AWACS aircraft were struck by drones; the FPV drones landing directly on the radar domes before detonating. Multiple Tu-22M3s can also be seen struck in the footage.

Japan's 30-year gov't bond yield has been rising very sharply. But if you think it's now crazy high, think again. This scatter plot looks at 30-year yields (vertical) versus government debt levels (horizontal). Japan's 30-year yield is still MUCH too low and needs to rise more...

This is why I don't buy the whole "We DOnT HVAe EnOuGh paTRIoT MiSsilES To GiVE UkRainE" thing. You do have enough, you have more than enough. You just really don't care that much.

People still don't get it--European leaders are saying that they are "stunned" at Trump's behavior yesterday and that he seemed to be fooled by Putin. Its all nonsense. Trump knows exactly what he is doing--which is working with and helping Putin. newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/europea...

Well, well well... Putin apparently wants to address the ‘root causes’ of his invasion...

Trump asked today, why didn’t Ukraine fight back in Crimea in 2014? As I wrote in my book, The War Came To Us, Ukraine’s decision to not fight against Russia’s invasion was largely influenced by behind-the-scenes pressure from the US. Here’s what then-interim President Oleksandr Turchynov told me:

The US is now working with a dictatorship to kill Ukrainian civilians. It is a conscious enemy of freedom and democracy in Europe. Here is the conclusion of the piece.

Kozak Ukrainian Eatery is more than a successful small business — it’s a pillar of the community here in New Westminster. Thanks to the staff for the warm welcome, and the pastries for the road. #SlavaUkraini

Two years since NATO invaded Helsinki & forced 🇫🇮 into alliance. Vuledar after voluntarily joining Russia.

Russia is a peaceful country, surrounded by ceasefires.

Fund managers have said that Trump’s Make America Great Again agenda has instead unleashed a Make Europe Great Again trade that is reordering global financial markets. www.ft.com/content/2e81...

The value of the 1700+ nuclear weapons Ukraine gave away in 1994 was $2 trillion. Under the USSR, these weapons were aimed at the US. During negotiations, Ukraine offered to give them to America. Instead the US insisted they go to russia. We agreed because we trusted their promise to protect us.

Ukrainians will hunker down, uttering something like "this is life", then the darkest of jokes will come about and people will continue with what they were doing. You see, Ukrainians don't expect much good to come to them, so when it doesn't it's ordinary life.

Posted by @vatniksoup.bsky.social on another platform.

This is like your ex - always focusing on the past instead of moving forward.

After yesterday's events in the White House, Haltbakk Bunkers, one of Norway's largest marine fuel companies, appears to have announced that it will no longer refuel American Navy vessels. Haltbakk has called on other European companies to refuse service to American forces.

I don't have much following on Blue Sky, so i truly depend on your reposts. I would appreciate it if you can repost/like comment this fundraiser.