Fyodor

Fyodor

@fyodor.bsky.social

890 followers269 following7.5K posts

I am very worried that Dem success in the house will kill the necessary motivation to do our own gerrymanders. In a D+8 wave it doesn't matter much if you have 235 seats or 240. The point of these Gerrymanders is to make it possible to hold the house even if Democrats win by three or four points.

i.amwill.i.am - East LANew single out now
Stephen Wolf@stephenwolf.bsky.social

Good explainer of the term “dummymander,” which seems widely misunderstood online. Many GOP gerrymanders will fail in 2026—but not outright backfire and hurt them compared to a nonpartisan map. And if a map did backfire only in a Dem landslide but worked every other year, is it truly badly drawn?

I hope that he wins but AES may give us a Republican senator during a wave year whereas Fetterman won in an R+3 environment and still votes Democrat 80-90 percent of the time. Unless and until he pulls it out is is extremely strange to be touting his political benefit.

lastpositivist.bsky.social@lastpositivist.bsky.social

In fact I will say the Earnest and Pious Charismatic Ethnic Minority political figure (AOC, Mamdani, El-Sayed) has been a pretty good bet for the American left so far, whereas the Disaffected Gruff White Guy Showcasing True Masculinity (Fetterman, Platner) has been a worse bet. Just an observation.

Fyodor reposted

Replying to @marisakabas.bsky.social

A serial rapist was elected twice as President, a fact we don't reckon with nearly enough. Now one of two major political parties has been molded in his image, run for and by violent sexual abusers who hate women.

I agree with Jacob that these results are completely baked in and nothing can go wrong and that Democrats should just take their feet off the gas and chill for the last week or so. You've worked hard and it's time to kick back. Everything is good to go.

Jacob T. Levy@jacobtlevy.bsky.social

What you expect in the final stretch is that both parties' numbers rise at least a little bit, as undecided voters break toward their natural home and uneasy base voters consolidate. These are small numbers, but in the last month there's been zero [evidence of] increase on the Republican side.

Fyodor reposted

Scrolling through online discussions of heterosexual marriage sometimes makes me feel like Homer Simpson saying "I sleep in a big bed with my wife." "I like my husband. He's a good person and kind to me."

Your proposal is acceptable

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com

Trump: "We'll take care of Cuba on our way back from Iran ... those beautiful ships, they'll pass Cuba. We'll have one of them stop about 50 yards off the coast. They'll raise up their hands, and then we're gonna send Marco Rubio in."

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Why is this student so upset about the mushroom, though? What could it have done to make her protest across the whole continent

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this remains a great study of the estranged parents movement, and one of the almost universal features of these narratives is the missing missing reasons--the extreme caginess with which these parents present the events that led to the estrangement

issendai.comThe Missing Missing Reasons – Issendai
Michael Hobbes@michaelhobbes.bsky.social

The other category of coverage is *extremely* implausible first-person accounts from estranged parents. According to this woman, her son cut her off after she was mildly rude to his fiance's family a single time. There's no way this is the entire story. www.goodhousekeeping.com/relationship...

I suspect that this is a hint about what is going on.

Michael Hobbes@michaelhobbes.bsky.social

The other category of coverage is *extremely* implausible first-person accounts from estranged parents. According to this woman, her son cut her off after she was mildly rude to his fiance's family a single time. There's no way this is the entire story. www.goodhousekeeping.com/relationship...

Fyodor reposted

Replying to @mattgertz.bsky.social

“I should only pay taxes for things I use” is a fun precept to adopt after you’ve stopped using services that were funded by the full tax base — you would have needed to pay much much more when your kids were in school if seniors hadn’t been pitching in with property taxes back then!

Fyodor reposted

The problem is always that on Congressional and Senate maps that are tilted so badly towards Republicans, the optimal strategy *in all of the individual competitive elections* is usually to run as a bipartisan problem solver even while the optimal strategy for the party as a whole is to trash Trump

Will Stancil@whstancil.bsky.social

What's weird to me is that this is the exact kind of talk that leveled the Bush administration and it took Democrats a decade to figure out you can just... use it again.

I like David French but the thing is that while I believe he is sincerely opposed to fascism, he likes a lot of the traditionally conservative things this Supreme Court has done and wants to avoid the cognitive dissonance of admitting that its preservation conflicts with survival of our democracy.

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Fyodor reposted

RANDOM POSTER WHOSE OPINION I HAVE NO REASON TO TRUST: A result like this in NV-03 would be seismic. That’s deep Blortles country. It was Vinkum +8 in ‘24 ME DURING ELECTION SEASON: totally. i just need to look at 9000 more of these

It always was darkly hillarious to me that the only reason they summoned the effort to impeach Trump the first time is that it it was on a "secret" phone call that was leaked. If Trump had just gone on TV and bragged about it would have been treated as a normal partisan dispute.

Will Stancil@whstancil.bsky.social

What’s astounding to me is how “the president builds himself a palace with money given directly to him in secret by the richest people in America,” literally the most straightforward and worst executive-branch corruption story in US history, just gets shrugged at because Trump is unapologetic

I don't think that there is anything to be done about this, but virtually all the data from specials/2025 points to ongoing collapse in the Jewish vote. There are a lot of Jews who may disapprove of the war crimes in Gaza who won't vote for a party they see as hostile to Israel.

This is a prime example of how the constellation of bigots and crazy shapes self-identified "Centrists" like Singal.Since he fancies himself a reasonable persons positioned between the different sides he must treat any claim from the right no matter how obviously deranged as a credible point of view

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Fyodor reposted

Replying to @swin24.bsky.social

Frankie and Johnny was specifically about unattractive people and they cast Al Pacino and Michelle Pfeiffer.

Fyodor reposted

The gap between “This feels satisfying to believe, this validates me, it embarrasses my enemies, it supports my politics, I can make arguments to support this, my friends believe it, I’ll be lauded for believing it” and “This is true” is small and very easy to step right over. But you shouldn’t!

This question is going to be a lot harder when they can very clearly out think us in a few years.

Will Stancil@whstancil.bsky.social

That is not to say "AIs are conscious like we are." I don't think that's likely, either. But if you pretend it doesn't force any tough questions about what makes us special, I think you are probably lying to yourself.

Speak for yourself.

EAll@ealluia.bsky.social

Humans don't know what it is like to have a blue whale's penis. It takes more than saying a being lacks access to a particular kind of experience or skill to say that being is therefore lacking in knowledge, awareness, etc. These kind of "warmth on my back" arguments are underbaked.

What you are seeing here is that there was big savings glut during Covid when people had incomes and government checks but nowhere to spend it and since 2022 they have spent down some of that glut. This is part of the inflation story too as the economy couldn't absorb all that money.

Will Stancil@whstancil.bsky.social

Pictured: all of you

It is pretty clear that Ossoff thinks that he has 2026 wrapped up and he is auditioning right now for the nomination.

Will Stancil@whstancil.bsky.social

He acts like he believes it

Fyodor reposted

Replying to @tvmojoe.bsky.social

It doesn't seem hard. Just say "this isn't America. We don't watch someone die on live TV, even if we think they don't deserve to live. And more and more, Trump doesn't represent America."

Fyodor reposted

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He looks like one of those rap guys girlfriends

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com

Trump and his gigantic wagon greets Ravens players Tyler Loop, Ryan Eckley, Nicholas Moore, and Marlon Humphrey (Win McNamee/Getty)

"Hard work is not an American Value."

River_Tam@rivertam.bsky.social

I fully believe that this is Wayne's culture, because it's recognizably lower class white culture of the kind that JD Vance correctly excoriated in Hillbilly Elegy. However, it's not American culture or even PMC white culture. It's just hick culture.

I would also like to know about the flood of transgender girls and women dominating women's sports that polling shows Americans to believe in despite the statistics showing them to be incredibly rare. Will you respect people's lived experiences or the sneering charts of people like Will Stancil?

Will Stancil@whstancil.bsky.social

Likewise, I think it’s important to learn about the secret crime wave being suffered by real Americans, that isn’t being captured by actual crime statistics

He said in 2012 that Obama was going to eschew reelection so that Hillary could be the 2012 nominee.

River_Tam@rivertam.bsky.social

Dick Morris was considered a has-been when I got into politics more than 20 years ago.

This was partially a bad electoral environment but also national polarization really hitting. It just wasn't possible for candidates to outrun the president by thirty points.

Conor Sen@conorsen.bsky.social

Here was 2006 (just thinking about these President’s year 6 midterms):

There are a few things going on. I think that in Minnesota the Walz administration is extremely unpopular and Flanagan is legitimate a weak candidate as a result. I would bet on her probably squeaking through but it's a real problem that everyone wants to imagine isn't happening because they 1/2

ghost malone ergo propter bones@proptermalone.bsky.social

btw I think the weird red state/blue state dynamic is left-leaners who are mad at Dems in blue states dragging their feet on coming home while in red states they’re super happy with any hope of victory

supported her on the primary on this site. Same with AES. I think that we are seeing a lot of voters loose in the socket in the current double haters category and these people are sensitive to candidate. I think that in some blue states the anti incumbent feeling is also directed to the Democrats.

Fyodor reposted

My ex-husband is one of the rapists at Aella’s simulated rape orgies that John Wentworth, Nate Soares, and I’ve heard Eliezer Yudkowsky also attended. He was an emotionally abusive partner and, until I left EA/rationality, he used the cult to keep me trapped. Journalists please DM.

Fyodor reposted

When I lived in the Bay Area, there were streets with a ton of glass on the ground. Those were the streets where you didn't want to park overnight or have anything in the car, because car thieves would break your window. I think most people can see that this is a failed state. This isn't normal.