Paul Meiners

Paul Meiners

@pmeiners.bsky.social

Postdoctoral Researcher @ The Norwegian University of Science and Technology; International Organizations, the EU & Political Psychology https://pmeiners.github.io/

846 followers649 following67 posts

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Paul Meiners reposted

Have you ever wondered about what we know about the broad patterns, the causes, and the consequences of contestation of IOs? We – @jonastallberg.bsky.social, Michael Zürn and I – did and therefore set out to take stock of the state of the art. Our review is out now in @iojournal.bsky.social.

cambridge.orgContestation of International Organizations: Patterns, Drivers, and Responses | International Organization | Cambridge CoreContestation of International Organizations: Patterns, Drivers, and Responses

Paul Meiners reposted

Es gibt soviel Forschung und dabei noch mehr Halbwissen -- ein studienbasierter Überblick mit möglichen Stellschrauben gegen die Erfolge radikal-rechter Parteien.

Cas Mudde@casmudde.bsky.social

“Down from the Peak: Conditions for the Decline of Radical Right Parties” Excellent reflection on a crucial question. Unlike most punditry, this piece is based on academic research rather than fantasies, gut feelings, and political preferences. (Scroll down for English)

Paul Meiners reposted

This is an incomplete understanding of academic freedom, and partly confuses academic freedom with freedom of speech. (🧵 adapting some things from this paper, esp. §5: philsci-archive.pitt.edu/28499/. Highly recommend the papers by Dea and Kronfeldner that I cite there!)

philsci-archive.pitt.eduphilsci-archive.pitt.edu
Sasha Gusev@sashagusevposts.bsky.social

Academia is a unique space where people can pursue controversial questions wherever they lead. If the work is pseudoscience (and, in my view, Cofnas' race science clearly is), academia has effective channels for response: public criticism and peer-review.

Paul Meiners reposted

In 2023, @nature.com published 'Papers and patents are becoming less disruptive over time', receiving world-wide media attention. Our Matters Arising, published after a 32 month delay (more on that soon), shows that the reported decline can largely be attributed to dataset artefacts. 🧵

Paul Meiners reposted

Replying to @jbenmenachem.com

Frankly, I don’t think frontier models should be used for research at all. Must be an “archivable” model (open weight or open source) that will be available indefinitely for reanalysis.

Paul Meiners reposted

Surveys like this always alarm people Fortunately, recent research from cognitive psychology shows that the reason people are so wildly wrong when estimating the size of minority groups is largely NOT because of prejudice — but rather how humans think about unknown proportions of any kind

Joel S.@joelhs.bsky.social

This actually explains something about how people talk about the Jewish community.

Paul Meiners reposted

Paul Meiners reposted

New publication! Unelected representation may influence how satisfied people are with democracy, opening up important discussions on the role activists play in shaping the legitimacy of liberal representative democracies. You can find out more below 👇

🆕 Unelected and untrusted? 🦹‍♂️ These authors 🧵 use a preregistered vignette experiment in Sweden, Germany, Italy, and Romania to assess whether citizens satisfaction with democracy is impacted by unelected representatives voicing political demands on behalf of constituencies buff.ly/YHgLyKN

Paul Meiners reposted

🛑 Chatbots are not fit for giving voting advice 🗳️ Latest study from @liberties.eu on the Hungarian election shows lack of transparency and reliability in the advice. Our research shows that 10-15% by now use chatbots for advice, for young voters up to one quarter. www.liberties.eu/en/stories/h...

liberties.euShould AI Tell You Who to Vote For?Open Ai's ChatGPT and Google's Gemini do not provide reliable political guidance on the 2026 Hungarian elections, our latest research finds.

(8/9) Again, we find no evidence for strong backlash against overturning the lead candidate system. Even when fully informed and after adding another procedural reform, respondents do not react strongly.

(9/9) Although many Europeans want direct elections of the European Commission, the lead candidate process is unlikely to improve legitimacy perceptions. Without attachment to and engagement with procedural reforms, they might fall flat.

(6/9) In order to differentiate between these explanations, we ran a survey experiment right before the European elections in 2024. We showed respondents different scenarios how their vote might matter.

(7/9) As another procedural reform, we add a hypothetical primary in which respondents could choose their own candidate. Then, we varied whether member state governments would refuse to accept the candidate chosen by the newly elected European Parliament, similar to the events in 2019.

(4/9) We argue that this came as a surprise to European voters. The sudden nomination of von der Leyen is our "unexpected event" that allows us to test how attached citizens are to the process. If citizens cared a lot, we would expect to see a negative reaction.

(5/9) Looking at survey data collected right before and right after, we find no evidence of a strong backlash. There are three possible explanations: 1. Europeans were not sufficiently informed. 2. The process is not important to Europeans. 3. Europeans were never attached to the candidates.

(2/9) The key idea here is that a lead candidate system increases the alignment between citizens' democratic expectations and institutional reality. However, if these procedures are not followed through, they could have a negative effect on legitimacy perceptions.

(3/9) We first take a look at the failure of the process after the European elections in 2019. Back then, von der Leyen was chosen by the EU member states to be their candidate for the head of the commission, even though she was never in the running during the electoral campaigns.

(4/4) There isn't much data on attitudes toward aggressive or retributive economic measures (especially in Europe). It would be interesting to see how the situation develops as China uses its economic weight more and more.

(2/4) Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions between the US and China, Europeans may not perceive themselves as being on one "side" or the other. Even those who want to increase trade with the US do not necessarily support restrictions on trade with China.

Paul Meiners reposted

New blog just dropped! This one is all about estimators—we cover James-Stein, classical test theory, empirical Bayes, penalized regression, and hierarchical models, showing how they all can be used to do a better job than sample stats alone 🤓 haines-lab.com/post/how-to-...

haines-lab.comHow to Estimate a Mean, and What It Means for Science | Computational PsychologyIntroduction If I asked you to estimate 30 means, you would probably compute 30 sample means. And you would be provably wrong (well.. maybe not wrong, but at least provably inefficient).

Paul Meiners reposted

I met with AI data labelers in Kenya who are organizing their colleagues to fight the brutal working conditions and horrible pay given to the workers at the "bottom of the AI supply chain." They believe the NDAs they've signed are unenforceable so are speaking out: www.404media.co/ai-is-africa...

404media.co'AI Is African Intelligence': The Workers Who Train AI Are Fighting BackKenyan workers are still the underpaid labor behind AI training, moderation, and sex chatbots. The Data Labelers Association is fighting back.

Paul Meiners reposted

I'm not gonna lie: Macron and his generals singing the Marseillaise to a nuclear weapon is a bit chilling.

Rory Taylor@rorytaylor.bsky.social

🇫🇷 Incredible acapella Marseillaise after Macron's nuclear speech at Île Longue. Almost makes you want to join the French Foreign Legion.

Paul Meiners reposted

Paul Meiners reposted

A blog post giving a more thorough take on survey experiments and the credibility revolution: cyrussamii.com?p=4168

cyrussamii.comSurvey experiments and the credibility revolution – Cyrus Samii
Cyrus Samii@cdsamii.bsky.social

This is an impressive project. My reaction to what it shows though is that survey experiments have gotten out of hand in polisci. I will blog more on this, but I do not think survey experiments are emblematic of the credibility revolution. Some are already interpreting as such, which is a problem.

Paul Meiners reposted

The billions of research funds channeled into the pockets of Elsevier and other commercial publisher in return for very little actual value is one of academia's big inefficiencies that will eventually be replaced by more attractive Community-run alternatives

Stefanie Haustein@stefhaustein.scholcommlab.ca

Over the past months (and at least 11 versions!), I was lucky to work with 11 amazing colleagues on a call to action to reform academic publishing. Not another declaration, but an appeal to our powerful friends, research funders & institutions, to Stop the Drain of Scientific Publishing. 1/n

Paul Meiners reposted

Super happy to see this out in @jeppjournal.bsky.social 🎉🎉

JEPP Journal@jeppjournal.bsky.social

Citizens in 🥜-regions closer to Russia became more supportive of EU defence, enlargement & foreign policy after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine (exception: energy policy) By @giorgiomalet.bsky.social and @svenhegewald.bsky.social 🔗 www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Paul Meiners reposted

the disastrous refusal of the self-styled silicon valley technokings to keep anyone in their lives capable of questioning their increasingly incomprehensible politics has lead to a crisis of thinking so severe that a fifty-eight year old man believes something is important because he knows about it

This post is unavailable.

Paul Meiners reposted

Unless the article is fully generated (not likely) this is a symptom of a much older problem, which is that people aren’t reading many of the sources they cite — just gesturing at them.

Olivier Simard-Casanova@o.simardcasanova.net

It's not the first time that I'm seeing this I'm afraid that hallucinated citations is an issue that scientists and experts will have to deal with from now on

Paul Meiners reposted

Every time this worry comes up (www.ft.com/content/d419...) I post some Landy et al. (2018). People just answer questions about proportions (of anything) in a rather particular way. So I think it's unlikely that what they are being asked about is as important as you might expect it should be.

Jonathan Portes@jdportes.bsky.social

Impassioned plea for more mixed-methods research (quant & qual) from @timharford.ft.com "The hard data is never as eloquent as a good story. Humboldt would measure the cactus but also sketch it; drag his barometer up a volcano, but spin a yarn about the epic climb." www.ft.com/content/d419...

Paul Meiners reposted

First they came for the immigrants, and I did not speak out (because the message test performed at a low percentile rank compared to other messages in our testing bank for non college men who opt into online surveys through various consumer reward programs)

G Elliott Morris@gelliottmorris.com

okay ryan, but does it raise or lower trump's approval rating among people who sign up to take surveys in a digital ad-testing production system? that is the only question that matters

Paul Meiners reposted

If the articles from my PhD were my children this article now published in @bjpols.bsky.social is my favorite. Written together with truly amazing supervisors and mentors, Pieter de Wilde, Oliver Treib, and Lene Aarøe, I had the support I needed in bringing this baby into the world. Summary below 👇

NEW - Venturing Beyond the Vote: Routes to Feeling Represented through Unelected Representation - cup.org/4lkNXKt - @andreavik.bsky.social, ‪@pieterdewilde.bsky.social, Oliver Treib & @leneaaroe.bsky.social #OpenAccess

Paul Meiners reposted

Now in an issue @psrm.bsky.social: I show that the 🇩🇰 Social Democrats could have won policy support for a pro-immigrant platform if their messaging were framed in moral terms. Findings provide a central corrective to the popular notion that the Social Democrats were destined to go anti-immigrant 👇🏻

👅Can moral language boost pro-immigrant messages and be as effective as anti-immigrant messages? ➡️ @kristinabsimonsen.bsky.social shows that pro-immigrant actors are not always bound to lose against the anti-immigrant side www.cambridge.org/core/journal... #FirstView #OpenAccess

Dangerous things are happening in Germany. We know that a lack of trust is a significant factor in RR voting. Has anyone also looked at whether RR politicians trust the state? These people always seem to radiate intense hatred for democratic institutions. But maybe that's just for show.

Anna-Sophie Heinze@asheinze.bsky.social

Viel wurde über die "neue" Strategie der AfD gesprochen - ich bezeichne diese als "elektorale Ausdehnungsstrategie ohne inhaltliche Mäßigung". Letzteres fällt im öffentlichen Diskurs gerne einmal herunter. Mehr dazu hier (zu hören und zu lesen): www.tagesschau.de/inland/innen...