Ryan Shaffer

Ryan Shaffer

@ryanshaffer.bsky.social

Lawyer, game designer

41 followers43 following53 posts

Ryan Shaffer reposted

Samantha Brennan@samanthabrennan.bsky.social

A new survey of 1,000 American adults found that the strongest supporters of transgender sports bans are not the people who admire women most: they are the people who hold the most hostile views about women. www.helenwebberley.com/news/transge...

Ryan Shaffer reposted

Replying to @nathansnewman.bsky.social

Democrats need to state that if this is done, they will have no choice but to turn Trump and his subordinates over to international tribunals for war crimes prosecutions, if Trump makes it impossible to prosecute them domestically. Make subordinates accepting pardons understand the consequences.

Ryan Shaffer reposted

FORT MYERS, Fla. (AP) — Trump says he ordered the Justice Department lawsuit over Alaska's US Senate race: 'I'm the one that said do it.'

Ryan Shaffer reposted

The Executive Branch has no authority to regulate states’ election decisions as to candidate qualifications, and the choice to file a lawsuit like this just days before an election speaks volumes about the political corruption festering at the top levels of the DOJ.

VoteHub@votehub.com

NEWS — The Trump administration sued Alaska over Dan J. Sullivan’s Senate candidacy, arguing voter confusion could affect the race between Sen. Dan S. Sullivan and Democrat Mary Peltola, per Courthouse News.

Grim sign for the long-term viability of the country: when the machinery of its one nominally pro-democracy party operates more in the manner of a Ponzi scheme, existing more to siphon off the wealth of vulnerable elderly individuals than actually sell the party.

Jake Grumbach@jakemgrumbach.bsky.social

Just as a private equity firm buys out a corporation and strips it for parts, a consultant class is raiding the Democratic Party and getting “generationally wealthy” along the way New from me and @adambonica.bsky.social newrepublic.com/article/2163...

This thread put me in mind of one terrifying knock-on effect of an AI bubble burst. Plenty of people have noted the parallels to the fiber boom and bust of the dot-com bubble - how fiber supply came in far ahead of demand, leading to price crashes, which freed up international communications. But...

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Selling the cheap compute of vacant data centers at rock-bottom prices won't bring those jobs back; it'll make it even easier to justify locking those people out. The only people who will benefit will be investors. And the same people who were laid off will find no home in a recession.

That ratchet effect - technology that replaces workers falls into receivership, gets cheaper, and so makes it easier to replace workers - can only be overcome by identifying work that can't be done simply through data centers or government intervention. And neither party has a plan for that.

This thread put me in mind of one terrifying knock-on effect of an AI bubble burst. Plenty of people have noted the parallels to the fiber boom and bust of the dot-com bubble - how fiber supply came in far ahead of demand, leading to price crashes, which freed up international communications. But...

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with cheap fiber/spectrum, there weren't huge sectors of workers who were laid off in anticipation of the boom times of cheap fiber. When creditors seize your fiber lines, new tech companies can use that subsidy to innovate and create jobs. But cheap compute came at the cost of human beings.

Ryan Shaffer reposted

Turns out the friction of having to learn photoshop was a crucial firewall protecting society from the terrible taste of small business owners

When I first heard about AI being used for menus and advertisements, my concern was largely that it would be used to idealize the food and make it look better than it actually was. At no point did I imagine that restaurants would willingly put out horrific looking images of their food on purpose

The lesson I've learned from designing a board game about lawfare in the last two years is that if the Trump administration was led by someone with his ruthlessness but even 20% more political talent, democracy would have been totaled. Not a good look that we've been only saved by his incompetence.

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com

it's a bit concerning that instead of responding to obvious political incentives and moderating on some of their worst and most unpopular policies, the Trump administration is getting more and more extreme

People like to claim that Dems are too internet-focused, but this is clear evidence that wide swaths of GOP Congressional staffers are irreparably brain-damaged from reading too much far-right conspiracy theory content on Twitter. A poor sign for the longevity of the party (and the country).

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com

holy shit -- turns out Jack Smith went to a Hawkeyes game in Maryland but Schmitt's team is so reckless they concocted a conspiracy theory that Smith was actually in Atlanta seeing a Hawks game and colluding with Fani Willis. Klobuchar points out to Schmitt, "you have your teams wrong."

What a day to be reading a bunch of #DeltaGreen scenarios and seeing the world through paranoia beer-goggles.

Scott Horton@robertscotthorton.bsky.social

NYT has now independently corroborated all the major allegations against Susan Collins in the ProPublica report, including that investigators were prepared to move against her and then Trump intervened to shut it down. This put Trump in a position of exceptional and extortionate leverage over her.

Ryan Shaffer reposted

Lot of issues here but one part that sticks out in light of the almost-attacked-a-Chinese-ship story today: people with very important jobs where lives are at stake have bought the hype and outsourced their whole brains to AI. We're going to see more and more of this. www.cnn.com/2026/09/18/p...

Jason Leopold@jasonleopold.bsky.social

HUGE EXCLUSIVE from @bloomberg.com Inside the US ‘Kill Chain’ That Destroyed an Iranian School Pentagon investigators discovered that flawed intel, outdated imagery & overreliance on AI contributed to a missile strike that killed 123 children in Minab 🎁 www.bloomberg.com/graphics/202...

A fascinating read that suggests (a) Gen Z historical literacy is at an all-time low but (b) in their minds, all the predicates are there for mass revolution in the face of oligarchy-through-mass-unemployment. Your historical determinism doesn't need to be up to snuff to break out the guillotines.

lesswrong.comlesswrong.com

My longstanding theory has been that innovation is outpacing human adaptability; AI layoffs have been one obvious consequence of a Peter principle economy. But I'm bleakly fascinated by the thought that in that prisoner's dilemma capital will always defect, so you need to defect first: guillotines

The fact that they're so cynical about human beings using AI to eliminate other humans and yet don't understand that Hugging Face was an example of humans being the essential failure point in the AI system is also very grim. The dead don't care much for the difference between malice and incompetence

Ryan Shaffer reposted

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Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com

Kash Patel: "Applicants who have engaged in beastiliaty means they were victims of beastility because they were forced to do so. At this FBI we are not going to criminalize and prevent victims from serving."

Ryan Shaffer reposted

Replying to @jacobtlevy.bsky.social

Money that comes into the United States government is government revenue. It is part of the public fisc. There's not "taxpayer money" and then "extra bonus money outside the rules." It's all taxpayer money. And spending *any* of it requires Congressional authorization. 2/

The ballroom case decision (transparently from Gorsuch) isn't wrong about the standing analysis per se, but really drives home that Lujan is worthless with this Court. If nobody has standing to challenge illegality (because Congress sure doesn't), the constitutional order collapses.

The Washington Post@washingtonpost.com

Breaking news: The Supreme Court said construction can continue on the White House ballroom. The justices found that the historic preservationists who challenged the project had not suffered the direct personal harm required to bring a lawsuit.

Everyone knows that an injunction to halt construction is really a fight on the merits! In what world is this Court going to really countenance a demand to tear this down? Guaranteed in three years this same Court will grant standing to a GOP puppet to enjoin demolition because it would be a "waste"

This is a good reminder of what a grievous injury to the prevailing order Trump v. CASA was. Everyone knows that injunctions are the heart of constitutional battles, because the year-plus it'd take a federal court to hold a trial is eternity in our politics. No injunction means no fetters, no law

My parents met working for Reagan's DOJ on civil rights cases. Seeing the institution gutted in this way is, well, gutting. Needless to say, if I review a resume from someone looking for a job someday and see they were at DOJ 2025-2028, my presumption is going to be to huck that resume in the bin.

This headline is terrible. SCOTUS only rescinded a temporary stay on enforcement of the order (meaning adoption of implementing regulations, which may be separately stayed), having no effect on other stays likely to be entered, none of which will likely affect 2026. /1

But the point of the order isn’t really to affect voting - only in the diseased mind of our president is there this scourge of mail-in voting. The point of the order is to set up a pretext for some unlawful attempt to ignore the election results in January. *There’s* your headline. /2

SCOTUS knows all of this, of course. Hence hiding behind procedure and posture in this way. But they won’t be able to pretend Trump’s gonna honor their powers forever. He’s too vindictive for that. What happens when he refuses to obey them? They don’t know. They don’t want to know. 3/3

This, and also with a news media that credulously accepted most claims about AI through at least Q2 2026, including in particular SpaceX's attempt to mark-to-market a business model of "every human being will buy our product every minute of their lives forever."

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On the plus side, when these deals collapse and we’re left with all these useless data centers, computational power will be cheaper than ever. Sorry, I meant to say “establishing a fortress from which to rule over the wasteland will be cheaper than ever.”

Timnit Gebru@timnitgebru.blacksky.app

"As Japanese financial newspaper Nikkei Asia found in a recent investigation, just five US tech giants — Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Oracle — are hiding an estimated $1.65 trillion in debt that doesn’t appear on balance sheets. futurism.com/artificial-i...

Ryan Shaffer reposted

My takeaway from that speech is that we are headed down the road of Trump trying to outright rig elections. It probably won't work, but he's going for it.

And so we return to the status quo from three months ago, where both sides blockade Hormuz. After all, international trade is a two-way strait.

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com

Trump: "Based on highly productive conversations with Middle East leadership, I have decided to replace the 20% United States Reimbursement Fee with Trade and Investment Deals that the various Gulf States will be making into the United States. Those Investments will be MASSIVE"

Ryan Shaffer reposted

Saw a meme of GenZ baffled by how pre-internet travel worked, and realized we’ve crossed an enshittification threshold where IRL services that once seemed outdated, like travel agents, now seem luxurious: “You meet with a human expert who plans out your whole trip with you” sounds incredible now tbh

Jay Willis@jaywillis.net

You guys are never gonna believe this, but going to a brick-and-mortar running store and getting sized by employees who know what they're doing and can recommend brands and models for you is a WAY better strategy than Googling "Nike running shoes" and buying whatever's on sale

Ryan Shaffer reposted

Heartbreaking hearing that the woman who Platner raped was hesitant to come forward because she agreed with his politics and didn’t want to damage the movement. If you didn’t already realize, this sort of thing happens a lot you just don’t usually hear about it

I recommend reading Gorsuch's concurrence in Slaughter, and I think it will be remembered most from this case - though perhaps not in flattery to Gorsuch, since for all the hand-wringing about Congress's derogation of its own duties, the best he has to say about the new autocracy is "whoopsie."

"The power to write new regulatory crimes still exists, but now the pen ultimately rests in the President’s hand. The ability to judge disputes in-house remains, but now the house is white." I love the new hot dog suit, sir.

Ryan Shaffer reposted

In other words: the U.S. gives Iran everything it wants immediately, including billions in cash, for a pinky promise to negotiate a future deal on the things the U.S. wants

I think this is the second prominent attack from courts on full-faith-and-credit in as many weeks? This foretells a crisis in 2029; if GOP states obstructed the Obama administration before, now refusing to honor other states' or federal law - that is, soft civil war - threatens to be a party plank

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I agree 100% with the assessment that Thomas and Alito are downstream of the most toxic right-wing ideology, but they're definitely upstream of how that legal theory becomes policy, certainly moreso than the other four justices. If this country crumbles, it's gonna be under the auspices of "law"

Ryan Shaffer reposted

We are still a long way from a second civil war or breakup of our country. But, if it did happen, I think a breakdown in Full Faith and Credit and fights over long-arm statutes could be triggers. A nation of many sovereigns can't survive if they don't respect the laws of the others.

Liz Dye@lizdye.bsky.social

TX Judge O'Connor is going to war with RI Judge McElroy over DOJ subpoenas for trans kids' medical records. She quashed the subpoenas. He orders the RI hospital to comply, and orders them not to seek relief in any venue but NDTX, Fifth Circuit, or SCOTUS. storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...