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lol this image from last night shows SpaceX is popping open LOX tanks during routine pressure testing. The Starship program was being hyped as closing in on rapid commercial launch cadence 2-3 years ago

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Earlier this year some jamoke was telling Congress about how they're going to launch thousands of these things... Just to build an orbital refueling station for some hypothetical future Other spaceship that's not built yet. Can't even get one of them up and you're going to launch " thousands"?

The Falcon rocket exited development for its first commercial deployment in 2012 and the success of this program is basically the only reason why everyone assumes this idiotic superheavy Starship program will work eventually. It's pure faith completely detached from engineering or design principles

Looking at it, i don't see any frost on the side walls, but the failure itself looks like a pressure vessel rupture, so i'm thinking maybe it was just the header tank blowing up and then taking the rest of the LOX tank with it? IIRC the header tank was one of the new big parts on the V3.

The initial payload assumptions on 100 tons was stretching it but they've since reduced by 60% + so it's not quite that dumb But the mass to orbit assumptions for profitability/cost were and still are really stupid using the same gravitational constraints

I mean, it goes to space, it's more an issue of using a very complex new engine that has not yet reached thrust hoped for + rocket being too heavy because of design decisions based on thrust assumptions. They may yet 'succeed', but the thing may never be economically viable as a launch system.

In addition to Starship’s troubled development now lasting longer than the entire Apollo program, we’re also at “Starship has been in development longer than the gap between the end of WW2 and Sputnik”.

Alan Grofield@alangrofield.bsky.social

A funny thing about this is that Starship was announced in October of 2012, 12 and a half years ago. That is longer than the gap between Kennedy’s speech at Rice (September 1962) and the *last* Apollo flight (December 1972)

They're not getting Apollo's budget. Apollo cost about $260 billion in today's dollars. Starship is around $10 billion spent so far. Unless you're saying they should be getting even more money--in this case direct subsidies for R&D, not contracts--not sure what the point is

Wait that can’t be unless the metal just failed from embrittlement. This looks like an outward failure so they must have had a pressure event. Either way, I always assumed they had some sort of relief equipment to protect against this kind of thing for vehicles on the ground.

The competition was less reliable and they offered less for more. It would have been criminal to pay more for less. Like paying 30+billion for SLS+Orion for one test flight (so far)....

Normally it should look like a tube with fins on left, middle and right sides in the bottom section, but in the picture, the middle fin looks like a parenthesis instead of being straight and the right side fin is either destroyed or obfuscated by big shredded steel panels.

Damn, even given how much I despise Elon I was rooting for Starship to work. Even the originally relatively competent parts of his empire are starting to fall apart in the face of his increasing craziness I guess

I think it achieved his goals of shoveling a lot of government and investor money into his pockets while giving him a chance to play with toys on a grand scale while not really being accountable to anyone