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Proof that Trump rigged the election!

Polymarket is a scam.

The thing is that this is only true when polls themselves have biases that are larger than the markets, which you can’t know ahead of time, and which was not true in 2018 or 2022

Likewise, they are good at predicting elections that are heavily influenced by money interests, because such elections have the same bias as prediction markets.

I understand why one would be sceptical of a claim like this, but having watched West Wing I’m not sure why you’d have THAT high opinion of polls that a mere “lol” is sufficient. Prediction markets is a very old concept and isn’t tooooo shitty at predicting en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predict...

Betting markets mainly give odds based on money bet. For stuff like democratic elections we have polls to indicate a potential result, but papal elections are an unknown so the odds are just driven by noise and media coverage.

The degens took a bath on this one

Can wait to see someone bring it up in his canonization procedure, decades hence

Rik Devillé & SNAP, who defends victims of abuse in the church, finds his appointment “A slap in the face" Prevost has protected a priest who abused children for years. “It’s unbelievable, the whole world is cheering, but the victims are not.” www.vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/20...

Has anyone done a welfare check on Nate Silver?

Holy Spirit makes bank.

Did people bet on this??? I never would have picked him.

A $0 bet returns $100. Still, not a lot of takers.

What were the odds on Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa I wonder...that would have been UH-mazing! In all seriousness though, liking this new #WokePope, as he had already given JD Vance a theological smackdown.

Ftw

This is a good joke

So funny

parable of the widow type shit

going after the vatican polling orgs for conclave interface

There's no way 💀

Someone just made a lot of money

He was a dark horse candidate for sure.

To bet on gods own choice…

Just so I understand, if I'd put $20 down on an American becoming Pope yesterday, how much would I have made?

I wouldn't read too much into this. They don't have any insider info like they do with sports or movies. It's just analyzing betting patterns. If money was being wagered Prevost, bookies would assign odds. That assumes gamblers are experts here.

Just goes to show that Trump had nothing to do with it otherwise his insider trading would have moved this betting market bigly

@drmatthewwall.bsky.social

Is there a way to analyze the accuracy of their predictions? Like when their markets indicate something has a 10% chance of happening, does it actually happen 10% of the time?

There is a massive disconnect between people who are terminally online and those who live in the real world.

Which explains why the msm is beside itself. They just can't get over how wrong they were. I don't have cable but I did tune into ABC, and NBC. Both, not amused that the Pope is American and of all things CHICAGO.

That's why they call it gambling.

I'm happy he won.

Quite possibly, yes. (Also a possibility is "Well, maybe Vance won't kill someone who was practically his neighbor...")

This is the funniest shit 🤣

"New Members! Bet $100 on Robert Prevost to secure a 'no lose' guarantee for your bet."

It's spiritually correct that a bunch of degenerates voting on the next Pope got a bad beat.

No one gave credit to the “nah nah nah nah” guy

Lol but if you really put your bets on it you made a heavy profit

Same craptower that called 2024 for Trump.

That obviously isn't true, because betting markets are how you tell the future. So, clearly, they were saying something else, sir.

Pope Leo coming out of nowhere to take some names and kick some ass. Hell yeah! youtu.be/B_fW-1q4DpA?...

functionally what does a 0 cent Yes contract mean? You just pay fees?

They were that one time.

Damnit!!! Haha well done…or whatever 😎

I live in America during the time of trump pt 2. How lucky do you think? ;)

Damn why didn't I lay down some cash

Does that mean if you bet on him you got infinite money?

Some elections are harder to model than others.

Betting markets are always 100% right. Retrospectively!

Everyone knows the pope market is inscrutable