Eric Holthaus

Water table (sea level in this case) was above the storm drain at the Embarcadero today. Similarly tranquil weather at Thanksgiving & Christmas will yield tides ~1ft higher due to ☀️ 🌕🌎 gravitational effects. Adverse weather (wind & waves) could add another 1-2ft. Rain would have nowhere to drain.

Sunny day flooding in San Francisco amid the city’s highest October tide on record.

The high tide in Los Angeles set a new record this morning, based on preliminary data. San Diego tied (no pun intended) its record, but there may have been a data glitch. Slightly higher tides are possible tomorrow.

El Niño 2026-27 is already reshaping life routines for millions. (Drought + ag fires are a classic El Niño outcome in Indonesia: www.csis.org/blogs/latest...)

a green new deal president and they redecorate the white house like rainforest cafe

Here’s our recent story about a highway through the Brazilian Amazon. Lula supports it but only with dedicated conservation areas and other rules. Bolsonaro wants to pave more such roads and said that’s slowed by “left-wing ideology in the licensing agencies.” www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...

A potential new data center in West Virginia is “almost certain to kill” 1.2 acres of American Chestnuts that have thus far managed to survive the chestnut blight and produce chestnuts, according to the American Chestnut Foundation. wvpublic.org/story/energy...

Imagine spending $4000 for World Series tickets to sit behind this guy

50,000 people died this summer due to European heat waves. We are in a climate emergency.

1st photo of Earth from space, 80 years ago! On October 24, 1946, scientists launched a V-2 rocket carrying a movie camera to a height of 65 miles (105 km). That's past the Kármán line, the boundary of space, 62 miles up. Read more: buff.ly/wrB9F30 📸 Wikimedia Commons.

San Diego and Los Angeles could experience record high tides next week. Model guidance predicts Monday’s tide in San Diego being 2.5ft above a typical high tide. Tuesday will probably come in around 2.6ft, which would be the highest in San Diego history. Record tides are also possible in L.A.

Year-to-date temperature departure from normal.

Evolution of Super Typhoon #Champi over the last 24 hours. Watch until the end to see the rapid deepening over the past 6 hours following what was likely ERC.

Announcing the 2026 #AMSPhotoContest winners! 🥇 "Diamond dust sky eye" by Jaroslav Fous 🥈 "Sea Dragon" by Chris Elkinton 🥉 "Cirrus, the Veils of the Moon" by Roberto Bueno 🏅 Members' Choice: "Rainbow Cataclysm" by Jeremy Janus Check out more photos on AMS Headlines: https://bit.ly/481Yg28

Trump administration's cuts to next generation weather satellite program could set back forecasting by a decade, experts warn. Note the lack of the lightning mapper on the new GeoXO constellation... www.cnn.com/2026/10/19/w...

Updated estimates of 2026 + 2027 expectations - new and improved graphic! data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/gmsta/

This area in front of Gare du Nord in Paris used to be full of cars and totally chaotic, but they recently limited the street to pedestrians and cyclists and it has made a huge difference. This is what cities that care about people do.

Vindication of Hansen et al.: "The rate of global warming appears to have accelerated, rising from ∼0.05°C/decade between 1880 and 1970 to ∼0.19°C/decade between 1970 and 2010, and finally to ∼0.36°C/decade between 2010 and 2024"

Only 6 times since 1872 has the Twin Cities reached 90˚ in October. Two of those times were both days this past weekend, including their record latest in fall 90˚ high. Par for the course in what has been America's record warmest year-to-date in 132 years.

The sting jet from Hurricane Isaias showed up in striking detail as seen by Sentinel SAR instruments. This marked the early signs of extratropical transition. #Isaias

Today was the latest-ever 90-degree day in Minneapolis.

Update: Now Post-Tropical Storm Rachel has made landfall along northern Baja CA north of Ensenada. San Diego is thus spared brunt, but bands of torrential rainfall & severe thunderstorms are occurring from CA's Imperial Valley eastward into AZ, w/serious flash flood threat. #CAwx

Seems like there's an upward trend in this dataset. Has anyone looked into that?

For those not in the Twin Cities, it is 90° here today

I love taking the train between San Diego and Los Angeles since it's such a gorgeous view but there's just no way it'll still exist on the same track a generation from now. www.instagram.com/reels/DeSCAh...

Hurricane Isaias packed quite a punch as it struck Friday evening, worsened by a probable sting jet that developed on its back side, which sent winds topping nearly 120 mph rushing to the surface in the Pensacola area. My Saturday morning wrap-up ⬇️

Preliminary track verification statistics for #Isaias show that the Google Deepmind model dominated the model guidance by a huge margin. The National Hurricane Center closely and wisely followed it. Details at bmcnoldy.blogspot.com/2026/10/isai...

Extreme Wind Warning for coastal parts of #Okaloosa, #SantaRosa, #Walton and #Escambia Counties in #Florida. This warning is only issued when a major #hurricane (Category 3+) comes ashore. #Isaias maintaining Cat 3 strength. Landfall soon. #wx #flwx

“Significant coastal flooding and erosion possible.” Most recent coastal flood warning in this part of Southern California was February 2014.

With a Hurricane Warning for Isaias on the Gulf Coast, along with a Tropical Storm Watch on the West Coast for Rachel, it’s the first time the National Hurricane Center has issued watches/warnings simultaneously for both coasts. yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/10/cate...

Tropical Storm Rachel, which is now expected to make landfall near MX/CA border, is not currently a very impressive-looking tropical cyclone, with sparse deep convection & clear dry mid-level air intrusion. However, ambient ocean conditions are extraordinarily warm... [Thread]

A tropical storm watch has been issued for San Diego County. This is just the second time a tropical storm watch has been issued in California, after Tropical Storm Hilary in August 2023 www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh...?

Another update to this figure... showing all 11 track forecast cones for #Isaias as of Friday morning. There's a very focused 75-mile stretch of coastline that has been inside every cone so far. Landfall will be very near Pensacola FL around midnight tonight.

Thunderstorms wrap around Hurricane Isaias' developing eye.

My colleagues at Rebuild & I are co-hosting a national call tomorrow afternoon to give a briefing about Hurricane Isaias & how we can coordinate & deliver rapid assistance to folks in harms way. Please join if you and/or your org want to listen and/or get involved! us06web.zoom.us/meeting/regi...

Through the first eight advisories for #Isaias, the length of coastline contained within all eight track forecast cones is 120 miles. The forecasts have been very steady. Landfall is Friday evening.

time to update my default out of office message

Ten hours of an intensifying Tropical Storm #Isaias on October 7, from sunrise to sunset.

The water level of 3.57' predicted for Pensacola from Isaias would rank as the 9th-highest. Their tidal range is normally ~2', but on Fri/Sat, some of the lowest tides of the month are coming, with a tidal range of only ~0.5'. Thus, surge impacts are not very dependent on landfall timing.

From the Wednesday afternoon cycle of the 1000-member Google Deepmind ensemble, nearly the entire ensemble is east of the NHC track forecast, and 74% of the members reach Category 3+ intensity now. The most likely intensity at landfall is Category 1 hurricane. #Isaias

Six months have passed since the #ArtemisII mission and NASA has just released the reentry video from the Orion capsule! Here is a timelapse of the reentry, but be sure to check out the realtime version linked below! 🔭🧪

Isaias is expected to make landfall as a hurricane Friday night or early Saturday, but the storm will likely be accelerating and expanding as it approaches. People well east of the landfall location may experience deteriorating weather Friday afternoon: yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/10/stre...

Tropical Storm Isaias is looking very spinny today. Landfall is likely between Mobile, AL and Destin, FL on Friday PM.

i love minneapolis so much

The TDR for #Isaias is in, showing its structural improvement. There's a strong SW side, with a clear RMW that it will try to build a core off of. The center relocation has gotten it more aligned as well, with tilt down to 10-15 km. Certainly explains the faster strengthening