Mauricio Salgado-Moreno

Well some central banks do, but not everyone at these central banks care too much for monetary aggregates, or so I’ve heard 🫣

Kevin Warsh wants money to play a bigger part in monetary policy It wasn't half bad after the pandemic as an early warning Is it time for monetarism to stage a comeback? www.ft.com/content/a7de...

Oh boy, are the Right excited by this graph recently published by The Economist! And of course none of them has bothered to read the article itself (TBF, it is behind a paywall!). So as always, let's add a little context and explain why these kinds of comparisons are so problematic 🧵1/25

Like clockwork

New Liz Truss book doesn't disappoint. Thrust is blaming the Bank of England for the Sept 2022 market fallout, especially its quantitative tightening announcement the day before the mini-budget. She claims that she and Kwarteng were "caught off-guard", blindsided by the BoE's announcement.

8% of people heard a lot about arguments in government about Home Sec's plans on indefinite leave to remain. Two-thirds did not hear about this Least noticed of 11 stories tested (with a Phil Foden hat-trick) well behind protests in France, storm warnings, north sea oil & music without headphones

That is nuts obviously. But the falsehood that really got me was that she says the BoE outlined its QT programme the day before the “mini” Budget on 22 Sept 2022 and didn’t inform ministers. Er…. It was on 1 Sept 2022 and in the public domain www.bankofengland.co.uk/markets/mark...

If alchemy is not a peak signal, I don’t know what is

“When the people concerned are being told that their contribution is insufficient to deserve settlement, yet apparently too important to allow them to leave their occupation, the contradiction becomes clear.”

Immigration and net migration over the last 10-15 years

Times: Cabinet must be told to "toe the line" But what is the line? “I'm listening & will come to a fair resolution. People would expect me to bring a new pair of eyes: to find the fairness & the right balance” - Andy Burnham, 27/7 "Range of options. It is policy to be settled" - Mahmood, 15/9

But how can such a retroactive change be credible at all? 🤔 Fool me once…

Be the central bank that failed politicians see in you.

It’s very important to internalise that manufacturing has not been in decline since 1950, manufacturing *employment* has been in decline since 1950 and much of the decline happened when output growth was strongest.

It’s almost as if it was more about the people trying to settle in the UK than anything else…

The name of New Mexico is funny because it's one of those things that you'd think is really simple (oh, it's it used to be part of old Mexico, so we'll call it New Mexico!), but it's much more complex New Mexico as the name for the area predates Mexico by several hundred years!

I keep banging on about this: in the Uk we have actually over taxed high earners and under taxed middle earners and it’s terrible that the Tories did this when they usually move taxes the other way because they have closed off labours usual route. UK needs to hike the basic rate.

“That is why most macroeconomics thought he [Woodford] was always going to win the Nobel prize. We just need politicians prepared to use some of those insights rather than ignore them.”

🇩🇪 gov't presents no proof of the claimed concerns about the freedom of information act. Well, perhaps it should not be cut.

This is probably the most personal piece about my intellectual journey I've written. I hope others enjoy it. www.crisesnotes.com/the-death-of...

Fed discount window borrowing is ticking up, maybe something, maybe nothing.

So someone had a thread on how the right parallel to this was the shale oil boom and I think I agree, but I just want to highlight one very specific parallel. A feature of the shale oil boom and bust was that everything was just a bet on oil prices.

Agree. An AI crash is almost inevitable, and following that policy rates will go down, perhaps all the way to zero, and longer rates will follow. (The hard question as always is when.)

RBADVISERS: “.. Consumers believe inflation is hurting them more than during the late-1970s. How long can this go on before it starts encouraging higher wage demands?” #UMich

By a weird coincidence this just came out, as scheduled for the past weeks. I managed to squeeze a mention to Perry’s passing and a dedication at the end of the acknowledgment note in the cover page right before it was scheduled to come out. A tiny homage. www.bis.org/publications...

On the microeconomic foundations of macro stabilisation: The Hall-Woodford prize in historical perspective beatricecherrier.wordpress.com/2026/10/12/o...

This is absurd. The US just lifted sanctions to import diesel from a country that: (1) bans its own diesel exports, (2) is rationing fuel domestically, (3) is bombing #Ukraine energy infrastructure. This is subsidizing Putin's war chest for fuel he can't even reliably deliver. Who does this serve?

Better not show this to the President, via the NY Fed libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/10/how-...

What’s the evidence on rent control? I charted the findings from 112 studies: Great for rent-controlled tenants ✅ But: Pushes up rents for other people ❌ Pushes down new housing construction ❌ Pushes down building quality ❌

In the simplest and most reductive way, the Uk political class seems to have resolved to pay 4% of gdp a year to investors to avoid raising taxes by 2% if gdp a year. It sounds mental when you put it like that but that’s actually the situation.

🤣

Oh so we are at that time of the year already, were my timeline is full of “iT is nOt aCtUALlY a nObEL” and lists of predictions about who might win this year. Let the fun begin 🍿

“Bet against me.” (via Macropaper) 🇺🇸

the most important story in the world keeps getting a bit important-er

Mahmood's comment makes sense if either 1) there is a fixed pie of labour and stuff and people who come here mean less pie for others [false] or 2) British workers and the young just don't want people coming here - ie racism. This might be true of some but it's not universally true.

🤔

Worth noting this from Mahmood at the HASC last week. A tacit admission that over a year after the proposals were published they *still* haven't modelled the impacts property - and that the Home Office's £10 billlion number was, as I have repeatedly pointed out, completely nonsensical.

Mahmood's rationale remains the same. Fewer (legal, working) migrants => less racism Nothing to do with integration. No evidence. I'd add this *doesn't* show she hates immigrants (FTAOD don't think she does). It shows her contempt/distrust/fear of ordinary Brits.

Via Wolf Financial:

I think some in the New York Fed are quite interested in selling the idea of demand-driven reverse provision model.... Comparing Select Central Bank Frameworks for Steering Interest Rates

Subtle. @nytimes.com www.nytimes.com/2026/09/24/b...