Jon Kimball

GeoSlice Halves, Oct 26 Round 1: 98/100 (48.8%/51.2%) Round 2: 98/100 (51.2%/48.8%) Round 3: 99/100 (50.3%/49.7%) Total: 295/300 Play at geoslice.net

How bad can it b---- oh no

The Cook Political Report is moving the Ohio Governor's race from Toss Up to Lean Democrat. Read the full analysis from @jessicataylor.bsky.social:

Google illegally cut down 250,000 trees in Finland to build a data center (or "datacentre") www.theguardian.com/environment/...

Election Night Profit Makers

listening to an old episode of election profit makers and apparently i had previously paused it at just the right moment to hit play on at least 30 seconds of frog field recording in the middle of the subway before i realized that phone was not connected to my airpods

Live by the battle axe, die by the battle axe

“Democrats lead by 14 points among those who say they’re at least “very likely” to vote or have already done so. The Republicans lead among only one group by likelihood of voting: those who said they were “not at all likely to vote.”

“By banning abortion, Idaho has become a more dangerous place to give birth.” In the United States. www.nytimes.com/2026/10/20/m...

New EPM: ⤵️ “Two Weeks Out From The Midterms: Our Experts Weigh In” overcast.fm/+AAr_ruau3_w

Sabato’s Crystal Ball moves #NC1 and #NC11 from Toss Up to Leans Democratic #ncpol sabatoscrystalball.substack.com/p/the-house-...

I early voted in my @epmcool.bsky.social t-shirt.

ACAB fundamentally includes prosecutors

Turns out deliberately dimming the sun might have some downsides.

The Making of Blue Velvet Was Even Weirder Than You Think Forty years after David Lynch’s iconic film, the people who helped make it say Wilmington was the strangest character of all.

Elon Musk is single-handedly funding the Ken Paxton campaign:

New EPM: ⤵️ “It Won’t Show Up Anywhere If You Wire Money To American Express” overcast.fm/+AAr_ruy3JKk

21 days from Election Day: NC's absentee-by-mail voting (all that's currently available until Early Voting starts on Thurs) is down 29% vs 2022 (despite the state's growth), with Unaffiliated voters least affected, and Dems the most. I'll be posting this & other ~daily insights thru Election Day.

NC has 7,885,560 voters, +2,374 in registrations processed Mon Oct 12 as counties finish processing registration backlog. Change by party: Democratic +1,192 Republican +57 Unaffiliated +1,112 Libertarian +4 Green +9 D over R margin now 2,252 U over D margin now 836,887 #ncpol

That $366 million Elon is spending to try and convince voters that Congress should stay Republican? It's more money than McCain's 2008 campaign spent. But it's also, relative to Musk's net worth, the same as a household at the median income spending $32.

Once had a listener who was disappointed in me for not helping Republicans cure their ballots even though I was working for Dems.

Watch an ICE agent run down and then run over a man. The man was was then writhing on the ground, saying "You broke my leg! You broke my leg!" Agents didn't help him. And btw, the man wasn't the target of their operation.

More like the Gaintors

The ICE agent at the center of the shooting in Marble Hill on Thursday is a familiar face to those closely following the Trump administration’s ICE crackdown in NYC. The City Reporter wrote about Brenden Cuni in May. 🧵

Again, this type of weirdness will never be topped by another president. Peak presidential weirdness.

Within the first 10 minutes, @jonkimball.bsky.social figures out the actual reason why Trump said Iran would destroy San Diego!

Lots of details on how to register to vote in NC before 5 pm Fri Oct 9 deadline at www.ncsbe.gov/news/press-r... including online for those with NC Driver license and special ID, paper forms to submit by mail, or register in person at county board of elections office. #ncpol

GOP margin over Dem has gone from 8,937 a month ago to 2,707 as of yesterday.

This really made me think

Triumvirate of gaining

The face of a guy who knows he’s about to gain

Triangle traffic/tree cams

New EPM: ⤵️ “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER NOW!!!” overcast.fm/+AAr_rvk6DBs

NYT has now independently corroborated all the major allegations against Susan Collins in the ProPublica report, including that investigators were prepared to move against her and then Trump intervened to shut it down. This put Trump in a position of exceptional and extortionate leverage over her.

Municipal Waste tonight at Cat’s Cradle

Unsolicited, unpaid-for suggestion from a guy who hates politics podcasts: I just really, really love Election Profitmakers. It’s hosted by @jonkimball.bsky.social and Get Your War On’s David Rees. It used to be about prediction markets before that became a disease. Now it’s just very funny.

The Onion special issue and Get Your War On by David Rees are the two things in immediate post-9/11 culture that kept me sane. I was in central NJ, going into the city all the time. www.mnftiu.cc/category/gyw...

Patreon episode PREVIEW: “Tree Canopy Percentages — Reconciling Data and Vibes” overcast.fm/+AAr_rs76y3U

In the Leandro case, she wrote: “It is difficult to estimate the damage this Court has done to its own legitimacy by trying to rewrite a fundamental constitutional guarantee because it no longer comports with the Justices’ individual political preferences." www.theassemblync.com/news/politic...

This is amazing. Thank you!

New EPM: ⤵️ “Could Hasan Piker Name Five Choreographers?” overcast.fm/+AAr_rtxGYTo