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OK, where is this bizarre idea that Taiwan = The Southern US Confederacy come from? I presume from the PRC and people who know literally nothing about Taiwan in 2026 beyond low-effort slop for the tankie trough?

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I imagine it started with something like "imagine if at the end of YOUR civil war some outside power who supported the losing side froze the conflict just short of complete victory and the CSaa endured in Texas" by way of helping Americans understand the PRC's view of Taiwan.

as someone who’s from a southern family and who has spent a few months in Taiwan I also find the analogy to be fascinatingly ill-informed

My guess at an analogy was there was some 1870s dream of relocating the planter elite to Cuba? Dispossessed elites emigrating as if Formosa didnt exist in 1950? Smacks of "history with blinders" Americanisms, or maybe someone that watched one Sarah Paine lecture and fancies themselves a geopolitic

Just a note I think Sarah Paine lectures are okay as part of a good curriculum in present day theory of war; she very much is a Clauscewicz of these times; but she is also very much addicted to historical constructivism to argue cause and effect to the point she begs the question oft in her lectures

I don't want to compliment the Japanese or anything, but they did more to develop the infrastructure and human capital on the Island than the Spanish or the Bananapublicans that came after did for Cuba It's mostly just A bad analogy

In France, there is one elected representative (Aurélien Taché) who said even worse, that "Taiwan = the Vichy regime in Singmaringen". It is the utterly stupid or/and cynical adaptation to the french context of this kind of analogy denying the History of the taiwanese people.

I think it's because so many people see every civil war internationally through American civil war blinders. Not every conflict works like that but a lot of people aren't good at seeing historical nuance.

I mean, I'm aware that Chiang is long gone? But I admit I was suprised to learn that the KMT was the more pro-PRC party. Just knowing the little I know of the period, I'd have expected the modern KMT to be the political home of the people most bitterly opposed to the mainland regime.

Then again, someone who knows not much about American history might be surprised to find that the modern Republican party is the home of revanchist confederates.

Like, do they realize that Taiwan’s in the process of cancelling CKS? Like, there’s a forest where they’ve dumped old statues of him. The first time I was in Taipei, they had repurposed Chiang Kai-Shek Memorial Hall as a SpongeBob SquarePants museum…

They’re obviously not the same, but is that what’s being claimed? I’m curious because my first read was along these lines (simply losing state in civil war is desired by winning state) bsky.app/profile/tita...

Sean@titaniumman91.bsky.social

I can at least understand this from a "this is why China is belligerent" POV, because Taiwan was/is the rump state of the losing side of a civil war. Doesn't make me think China is right, I can just understand where the belligerence is coming from at the State level.

To be clear, I think anyone on either side still claiming the other are dead end losers, I just understand having a higher base level of belligerence than you would expect been the two.

Does he for real think this would become some kind of deep existential grudge that pervades the minds of our leaders for a century or something? We infamously give up on grudges, like, all the time Like really badly, sometimes. That’s how we got Jim Crow. That would’ve been a good grudge

But the entire rest of our history is littered with enemies that we ground to dust and then became friends with in the span of like a generation Germany, Japan, Vietnam being some of the more obvious examples Vietnam in particular considering that, like in his scenario, we walked away the loser

Same people who were calling Hong Kong a British colony during the uprisings and crackdowns of the late 2010s, which, yeah, it was but that was 2 decades after the British left.

I saw that this originated with Mr. Piker, but I also think that it has a bit to do with the heuristic that fascist = anticommunist = nationalist parties = KMT = modern Taiwan and people just run with it from there. CSA is the USA equivalent of the right wing nazi threat is the other heuristic.