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Been through a handful of Army Leader Professional Development trainings which could have been titled "why we shouldn't invade Iran" which largely consisted of someone slapping this map on a PowerPoint slide and pointing out that Iran has three times the land and twice the population of Iraq.

Shipwreck@shipwreck75.bsky.social

The idea of overthrowing Iran’s regime is returning to the agenda in parts of the Trump administration after diplomatic efforts failed, the Financial Times said in an analysis.

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Relatedly, invading Mexico is dumb as shit as an idea too

Law Creep@lawcreep.bsky.social

Maybe a bit late, but Mexico is larger and more populous than Iran with substantially greater GDP. Iran has a larger military and the Strait of Hormuz, but Mexico could strike the US itself if we invaded/attacked them.

“But other people have conquered it” “The list is Alexander the Great, the Arabs, and the Mongols. Two of those three had help from a power vacuum brought on be significant regional conflict in the years pre-invasion.”

Alexander defeated the Persians outside of Iran. His "invasion" was a mop up operation which was more about convincing/intimidating the satraps into changing sides.

'sorry they have -how many - natural nuclear-tier bunkers?' It's basically a case study in 'what not to invade by force' coupled with 'and how would you possibly occupy it'.

You'd have to convince Turkey and Armenia to allow us to route all of our equipment through them and then for Azerbaijan to serve as a launch point for the invasion. I'm sure Russia would be fine with all that equipment build-up on their border.

For the not-military folks, it's kinda like the scene in The Martian where he says something like "so I started digging up the thermal reactor, which had been mentioned in several NASA briefings with titles like Under No Circumstances Should You Dig Up the Thermal Reactor". ...except it ends worse.

This map kind of looks like the land is made entirely of massive mountains, which I can’t imagine makes anything easier from my normie civilian position over here

They have also been supplying drones to the Russians invading Ukraine, which might put them in a position to ask, "besides what we can get from their propaganda, what have they been doing to cause you the most pain?"

I’m convinced that for most Americans, Iraq and Iran are mostly indistinguishable. Their names are similar, located next to each other, and have had unfriendly regimes going back decades. They think that invading Iran is gonna go as well as the initial phase of the Iraq War.

Im sure they wouldn't make use of the easy supply routes from Russia. And im positive the Russians arent salty about the thousands of casualties they've suffered from weapons we've provided Ukraine.

This would of course be the exact same problem as Russia invading Ukraine...except with worse terrain, more distant logistics, a less supportive domestic populace, and now having to prep a ground invasion for months while under missile fire.

When the idea of a Japanese mainland invasion was considered in the late stages of WWII, it was hypothesized that there could be up to 4 MILLION American casualties. Okinawa alone produced about 50K, with 12K dead - one of which was my grandfather.

I spent a $hit load of time thinking about the logistical and maneuver demands of operating in this geography. Holy Mary, Mother of God, pray for us sinners, now and at the hour of our death.

But luckily thanks to its successful warfighting in Iraq and Afghanistan the US now has complete control of those two countries and can use them to attack Iran from both sides in a classic pincer manoeuvre.

Can't help but wonder what would have happened if they had diplomats leading the diplomatic efforts instead of a bunch of incompetent Friends of Don with no negotiating skills. On the other hand, getting militarily involved with Iran was simply nuts and every sensible person knew it.

The sheer size of Iran is a very good reason why the US would be foolish to invade; but also the US has in no way prepared for the reality of drone warfare and Iran has a *lot* of drones. We all saw Russia get swiss-cheesed by drones in Ukraine, it's going to be the same thing here.