aaronsmith44.bsky.social

gets selected over João Pedro, and then Brazil holds 34% possession against a Nordic country with 5.6 million population

Brazil elected Lula again tonight. Poll averages appear to have had Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro effectively tied, maybe Bolsonaro up 1 on Lula — so not sure why the markets had this race at 80-20 Bolsonaro. Markets might miss big in the U.S. midterms in 9 days too.

As far as our data can tell this is pretty much unambiguously good news for Democrats. Young voters strongly favor the Dems this cycle, including young men allianceforyouthpower.org/wp-content/u...

We don’t know if the early vote will be predictive because all Republicans could just be waiting to vote until Election Day. But what this means in practice is that to win, Trump/GOP will have to have the most successful EDay mobilization operation in modern history— and that it’s completely stealth

Joe Burrow has been grinding the midterm polling (video courtesy of @bbaby41.bsky.social)

i don't think we can come to a reasonable compromise with this

I’ve been released from IDF custody with a “warning,” apparently because of my public profile (I told them I wasn’t even a congressmember yet, just a nominee). But several dozen rabbis & participants harvesting olives with me are still in detention.

Vibe shift. Kaplan was elevated to this role after Trump was reelected in 2024. Same time Zuckerberg went full manosphere Now power's about to flip in Washington, so Zuckerberg puts on a new skin, again

Hockley and Madison are complete Travis, Dallas, Hays open til 7 The other 4 working through lines Dallas cast 10% of its entire 2022 vote today already

Basically all my findings point to a monster year for Democrats. 1) Special election overperformance compared to the eventual House overperformance in the popular vote is directionally more predictive in midterm than presidential years. 2026 outpaces any other recent year, including 2018.

You wonder at what point the guy started to wonder if he’s made a pretty bad mistake

Real wages are shrinking year-over-year for the sixth month in a row. The Iran War brought an end to three years of real wage growth.

At the University of Chicago, male applicants are now nearly twice as likely to be admitted as female applicants are. chicagomaroon.com/53804/viewpo...

Fairly reputable polls out today that have Florida & South Carolina tied & Talarico winning almost to the MoE. Also, Jolly up for FL Gov & Hinojosa tied for TX Gov. Good time to remind everyone that in the 2024 POTUS race FL was closer than AK, IA, or TX.

Daniel Cox: “Men with larger social circles tend to have much more romantic success. But that’s only true for men! The number of close friends a woman has seems to have little bearing on her ability to go on dates.” www.derekthompson.org/p/are-men-th...

The latest from YMRP: As MAGA splinters and spirals, expect it to turn to increasingly grotesque and shameful measures to cling to power. Here's how they are actively trying to weaponize the "Cornell 7" for political gain. ymrp.substack.com/p/a-splinter...

It is incredible we have a real chance of 54 Senate seats and potentially 30 Governorships

here you go

Conley leads Lawler 🚨

And after the 2030 Census, a red Texas makes things very difficult for Democrats. Mission: Blexas is upon you whether you would wish it or not.

Strength In Numbers called this eight months ago www.gelliottmorris.com/p/meet-ameri... (from The Bulwark's latest Focus Group pod)

The latest from YMRP: the State of American Men report is out! Combining many research streams we find that... most of the Discourse around young men is wrong or exaggerated, these are adults with lives and responsibilities, they are not a "political problem." equimundo.substack.com/p/belief-in-...

If AOC goes to a Bills tailgate and jumps through a table, the Dems shouldn't even bother holding a primary in 2028.

I think the issue is you used to have to go to a third space to really "hang out," even in the AIM days, to "accidentally" run into that cute guy/girl from math class, and now it's not really like that.

From 16,000 to 185 to Zero: Trump’s Claims of Illegal Voting in Nevada Fizzle. "The state sent a strongly worded rebuke to the federal government: Every single person on the list was a lawful citizen."

Israel can call itself the "only democracy in the Middle East," but this is not how any legitimate democracy behaves. www.haaretz.com/israel-news/...

Tough competition of course, but the Trump admin deciding that white South Africans are the only group of people on earth currently worthy of refugee status has to be the most overtly racist thing any administration has done in decades

Here's a chart from the post.... quite a change in a single generation.

HUGE EXCLUSIVE from @bloomberg.com Inside the US ‘Kill Chain’ That Destroyed an Iranian School Pentagon investigators discovered that flawed intel, outdated imagery & overreliance on AI contributed to a missile strike that killed 123 children in Minab 🎁 www.bloomberg.com/graphics/202...

…has the US military killing between 400 and 1,000 Iraqi civilians in 2006 (600 of them killed in firefights where it’s not always clear which side killed them) and between 700 and 2,000 in 2007 (with the same caveat applying to 1,300 of them who were killed in firefights).

www.nytimes.com/2026/09/18/o...

Jürgen Klopp on national pride in Germany, and waving the flag for the national team, in response to and pushing back against increasing far-right nationalism.

Good writing in my view - while some commentary on here has framed Sheeran's justification as a demonstration of the hollowness of "neutrality", as a professional moral philosopher it is also what we in the business refer to as a "lie" and it may be helpful to refer to it as such

www.nytimes.com/2026/09/14/o...

"These billionaires’ total estimated wealth is $8.4 trillion...An enormous number, but it’s less than five percent of total U.S. household wealth. By comparison, households in the 90th to 99th percentile of wealth (from $2 million to $11.5 million) have total wealth of $63.2 trillion! "

Siri, please show me an example of “the opposite of toxic masculinity.”

Yikes, if this is accurate, its basically the owner class using their power to shut down dissent. The Patriots Robert Kraft told Sheerhan his concert would be cancelled if Mackelmore stayed on the your, and that other stadium owners would follow suit.

Shanah Tovah, New York! Wishing all Jewish New Yorkers celebrating a sweet, joyful and meaningful Rosh Hashanah. Here’s to a new year filled with health, happiness and blessings (and yes, even another Knicks championship).

Been messaging with a number of folks but man, today really feels like the day the wheels fell off for the GOP huh? Like, we were looking good. But today feels….different. If I was a Republican, I’d likely just be preparing for the worst because it’s clearly coming. Shit is gonna be wild!

If you're feeling a bit of whiplash, you're not crazy. www.offmessage.net/p/elon-musk-...

Breaking news: Trump administration officials say work will begin on the 250-foot-tall triumphal arch near Arlington National Cemetery in the next two weeks.

www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2026/09/juan...

i did it, i finally wrote about Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey (and the Statue of Liberty, and Planet of the Apes, and Iris Murdoch)

Any sweeping systemic change you want to make in the United States has to begin with adding seats to the Supreme Court in 2029. No major reform bill will survive the current court. No civil rights law, no anti-corruption law, no wealth tax, nothing.