Simon

Simon

@analytic.football

Stat nerdery, #lufc and miscellany Football team ratings model: analytic.football I chat about FPL @analyticf.pl

1.7K followers356 following388 posts

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Major updates to analytic.football, now powered by shot-level data, after switching to Opta. Major things: - Takes into account game state - Downweights noisy very high xG chances - Accounts for uncertainty in the opponent's rating in update speed - Team quality is an additional input to finishing

His analysis is more bang on than he realises, it was his boss the tinpot dictator throwing a tantrum that caused it

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com

JD Vance: "Gas prices are too high ... they skyrocket every time some tinpot dictator decides to throw a tantrum"

Simon reposted

The Prince Charles Cinema Secures its Future The Prince Charles Cinema is thrilled to announce that we have signed a new 25-year lease with no break clause, ensuring our projectors will keep rolling for years to come. #YouSavedthePCC

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Apart from once again proving himself a dead eyed socipath, Jenrick is forcing Reform down a cul-de-sac. "How about war crimes" is not winning 35% of the vote.

Sunder Katwala (sundersays)@sundersays.bsky.social

Robert Jenrick for Reform says that Royal Marines using "lethal force" on small boats could end it in days. "Deploy the Royal Marines into the Channel. If they need to use lethal force then they'll be able to do so. I think the problem would come to an end within a matter of days."

Watching Tories repeatedly claim that "revealing what you want" is a bad idea in a negotiation, breaking my brain. How exactly do they think people get what they want from a negotiation without asking for it, rely on the other party to read your mind?

Indeed, this is exactly what the *EU* did in the negotiation with the UK during Brexit. So why didn't they run rings round them

Simon reposted

And now the best part: Bot traffic from the #Yandex network has plunged to near zero following the strike on its Vladimir data center. Bot traffic includes automated requests from search crawlers, scrapers and other online services. Twitter must be a ghost town by now.

Alina Pereverzieva 🇺🇦@perevaa.bsky.social

All three Yandex AI supercomputers are reportedly offline: Galushkin in Vladimir, Chervonenkis and Lyapunov in Sasovo, whose data center shut down after the Oct 8 strike. Yandex Cloud outages also threaten thousands of Russian firms relying on it for websites, databases and payments 👏

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It would seem the Home Office has now acquired the ability to impose, without visibility or accountability, shadow bans on students coming to British universities from particular countries. How? Because of the interaction between indiv visa decisions (made by HO alone) and visa rules for unis 1/?

Edward@fornbirkibeinn.bsky.social

Anecdotally what seems to be happening is that the Home Office is refusing all student visa applications from certain countries. The Treasury should have told them to knock if off years ago but at this point the FCO needs to tell them to stop trying to cause an international incident.

Major updates to analytic.football, now powered by shot-level data, after switching to Opta. Major things: - Takes into account game state - Downweights noisy very high xG chances - Accounts for uncertainty in the opponent's rating in update speed - Team quality is an additional input to finishing

And some extremely fun front-end bits: - You can select any number of results for the upcoming fixtures and see how it affects the projections - Shot volume/quality graphs have arrived, along with xG vs finishing PL live now, gonna retrain the Championship on the new model over the next few weeks

Piracy is a moral obligation

Robert Reich@rbreich.bsky.social

The richest man owns X. The second richest man owns The Washington Post. The third and fifth richest men control Google. The sixth richest man owns Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp. And the eighth richest man now owns both Paramount and Warner Bros. See the problem here?

Simon reposted

This is very good from Rob Rinder. The comments are a complete binfire, not sure why there are so many horseshoe Greens on a Nazi's site, but there we are.

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It is important that the German Greens directly reject the UK Green Party’s resolution titled "Zionism is Racism" and welcome the suspension of its voting rights within the European Green Party. It‘s urgently necessary for the @europeangreens.eu to distance itself from the UK Green Party’s position.

Sven Giegold@sven-giegold.de

Heute hat die Grüne Partei von England und Wales einen Beschluss mit dem Titel „Zionism is Racism“ gefasst. Dieser Beschluss widerspricht den Grundsätzen der Europäischen Grünen Partei (EGP), die sich für eine Zwei-Staaten-Lösung und ein friedliches Zusammenleben in Israel und Palästina engagiert.

Simon reposted

Replying to @iandunt.bsky.social

If that's all they wanted to say, they would simply say it. But they don't. They want to say something else. And that's why it's worded in the way it is.

Simon reposted

Replying to @iandunt.bsky.social

It is also perfectly possible to make the case that Zionism inevitably leads to the kind of behaviour from the Israeli government which we see today. Those positions are valid and respectable.

Simon reposted

The thing that gets me about these lurid anti-Zionist statements, like the one the Greens just passed, is that it is *so fucking easy* to criticise the Israeli government without engaging in that type of language.

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Just want it on record that regardless of what he achieved in a Leeds shirt or his ability as a footballer, Manor Solomon is a dreadful prick & he can fuck off. #lufc

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One reason England does so well is our second generation immigrants outperform their peers which is not true in most OECD countries. We are also very good at integration. And it's v sad that this is never acknowledge in debates on immigration.

Sam Freedman@samfr.bsky.social

New PISA data out England is now top ten in all three areas (reading, maths, science) and the second highest performing country outside of east Asia (after Estonia). This is a huge public policy success.

analytic.football is now using Opta data as the xG input, as the last bastion of only-cheaply-paywalled Statsbomb xG seems to be gone It meant a full retune, and the finishing module got a couple of upgrades (handling conditionality of rebounds better). New ratings on the left.

Simon reposted

you know what, challenge accepted. quotes that express ideas that are challenged or recontextualized by LLMs 🧵 "When I think in words, I don’t have ‘meanings’ in my mind in addition to the verbal expressions; rather, language itself is the vehicle of thought" -- Wittgenstein

would love to hear even a single actual argument about how AI "changes the nature of humanity" not based in fanciful speculation

If we get Bahoya I think we ended up close to here. Few differences: - Kept 4 CBs not 5, sold Struijk with a first team LCB not RCB - Moved Stach to CM and signed a RW (Wilson) instead - Darlow chose to go and replaced with Zetterer - Didn't get another 9 No complaints with the first 3 #lufc

Simon@analytic.football

Obviously, summers are unpredictable and it's not always possible to achieve everything, but I think this would be an ideal template:

The lack of 9 is the glaring hole, and it does leave open a vulnerability if DCL is injured for a significant period. I don't buy that we are significantly weaker with the sale of Piroe, Farke would shuffle relentlessly to avoid playing him anyway. But ideally we wouldn't run this risk back again

Looking at the window as a whole though, every other department bar CM (no change) is better. The first team, age profile and squad depth are all improved throughout, and we also managed to clear out a lot of the players not involved last season All in all, assuming Bahoya and no more, it's an 8?

Simon reposted

Mahmood's proposals would force medium-skilled & care workers to leave the UK & would deter high skill workers from coming in future. This would widen the deficit/fiscal home. Would be deliberate economic and political self-harm for Burnham/Healey to proceed with them. inews.co.uk/news/politic...

inews.co.ukMahmood's 'hardline' immigration reforms hit by growing rebellionMore Labour MPs to publicly oppose Home Secretary's changes to indefinite leave to remain

Hull only 8 points from matching Derby's record but they only get to play Manchester United one more time so it's touch and go