markpalko.bsky.social

markpalko.bsky.social

@markpalko.bsky.social

The job description says data scientist, but still just a simple country statistician at heart. Blogging at observationalepidemiology.blogspot.com Andrew Gelman: "There's something wrong with the world that [Palko's] blog doesn't have a million readers."

226 followers19 following2.9K posts

markpalko.bsky.social reposted

For the fabulously wealthy, paying taxes is pretty much optional. They can borrow against their vast wealth, which is mostly an untaxed capital gain, without paying taxes. When they die, the capital gain goes to zero. And loopholes exist to bypass the estate tax too.

Jen Taub@jentaub.bsky.social

“Billionaires who popularized stock-based lending include Larry Ellison and Elon Musk. Both borrow to avoid having to sell shares—which could trigger a taxes and dilute their voting rights—in companies they founded.” www.wsj.com/finance/the-...

markpalko.bsky.social reposted

In his acceptance speech, Lula says he will work to regulate digital platforms in Brazil. “Digital crimes must be dealt with like real-life crimes.” This comes after Meta directly interfered with the Brazilian elections, favouring Flávio Bolsonaro.

markpalko.bsky.social reposted

To expand on my point about these “markets” I’m not getting into the issues w corruption or damaging impacts of gambling. Their supporters in the political space habitually argue they are superior to polls in their predictive ability. In the simplest sense they’re just not. But to the extent they …

Josh Marshall@joshtpm.bsky.social

lol reminder that betting markets are extremely accurate measures of conventional wisdom

markpalko.bsky.social reposted

“Democrats will strenuously oppose efforts to restore things to the Obama-era status quo ante,” I say, presumably after suffering significant head trauma

markpalko.bsky.social reposted

In which the Speaker of the House learns the concept of polling for the first time.

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com

Mike Johnson: "When I'm in these big arenas, I ask for hands -- 'Show me your hand if you've answered a poll in the last six months.' There will be like three hands among 300 people. I'm telling you, these polls are off. All of them."

It's important when discussing this to remember that the "zero" may be up for debate but the fact that the payoff is a fraction of where it needs to be is not.

Bloomberg News@bloomberg.com

Despite the significant investments ploughed into artificial intelligence it has provided “zero payoff” to corporate America outside of technology, according to Apollo's Chief Economist Torsten Slok. Read more: bloom.bg/3UO2c30 📷: Victor J. Blue/Bloomberg

markpalko.bsky.social reposted

What these dumbass republicans dinging Obama for making light of the Cheesecake Factory don’t understand or pretend not to get is that people who go to the Cheesecake Factory don’t take it seriously

markpalko.bsky.social reposted

Musk said he restricted Starlink in Ukraine- causing fast moving drones to lose connectivity - and that he had every right to do so because of some terms of service or contract that he didn't show us. (He didn't address suddenly doing this with no warning to Kyiv.) www.cnbc.com/2026/10/24/u...

cnbc.comAfter SpaceX restores high-speed service, Musk claims Ukraine violated Starlink agreementUkraine says restrictions on Starlink and Starshield have been lifted, restoring connectivity to fast-moving military systems after disruptions.

markpalko.bsky.social reposted

Trump wanted to create an Orban style autocracy & take away everyone’s liberties. But Orban knew u need to be popular when u put that into effect. But in just 20 months Trump failed so hard he’s more unpopular than any midterm Prez in 80 yrs. Chump just doesn’t have the cards. 🤣

markpalko.bsky.social reposted

markpalko.bsky.social reposted

When first reported, 2025’s jobs reports added up to 1.2 million new jobs. After revisions, the economy added just 116,000 — 90% less.

markpalko.bsky.social reposted

The Justice Department's last-second letters about noncitizen voting contain people with no history of voting whatsoever, and they're moving so fast they sloppily sent one county the wrong list of names.

Chris Geidner@chrisgeidner.bsky.social

NEW, NYT: More action from the U.S. Attorney’s Office in the Middle District of California that is not based in law and runs counter to DOJ policy. DOJ is threatening local elections officials in CA after DOJ did not get what they wanted from their BS lawsuit. www.nytimes.com/2026/10/23/u...

markpalko.bsky.social reposted

This is corruption by #Amazon It’s currying favor It’s a form of bribery It’s part of a RICO scheme But I am very doubtful anyone will investigate. This is also a state level crime. Any state where Amazon does business can investigate.

apple.newsReport: Amazon sends Prime refund checks with Trump's name — MLive.comMillions of Americans are expected to be sent refund checks in the coming months from Amazon credited to “President Trump’s Federal Trade Commission,” according to a new report.

markpalko.bsky.social reposted

It's funny that normally right about now in an election cycle in North Carolina, I'd be complaining about the flood of political advertising. Except as far as I can tell the GOP has basically abandoned the state, so I haven't actually seen that much. 🤷‍♂️

markpalko.bsky.social reposted

markpalko.bsky.social reposted

This is why it's dangerous to give rich people so much power over our lives. Sometimes, they are appallingly ignorant. The Nazis added the word "socialist" to their name purely as propaganda to appeal more to workers. But the party--and Hitler--hated real socialists and communists.

markpalko.bsky.social reposted

do...do...do you think that the Germans chose the lesser evil in 1933? I would not, generally speaking, characterize the Nazis as a 'lesser evil' and think the world would have been a lot better off if, like, Zentrum or the SPD had won a plurality of the vote in 1933.

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markpalko.bsky.social reposted

markpalko.bsky.social reposted

Vivek Ramaswamy ran an ad attacking his opponent for being raped as a child. But he's also one of the few Republican politicians who is still allowed within 200 feet of a school or a Chuck E. Cheese.

markpalko.bsky.social reposted

markpalko.bsky.social reposted

Replying to @ianboudreau.com

Ah, the auto influencers have explained that this carbon fiber-wrapped ball, which sits right behind the driver's head, holds about 100kg of nitrogen pressurized to about 10,000 psi. Let me just go review the tolerances people found in their Cyber Trucks

markpalko.bsky.social reposted

“C.D.C. has lost about 30% of its staff since last year, including many members of the rabies team, which no longer has the capacity to advise state officials after hours…The agency also temporarily suspended rabies testing this spring, a pause that lasted for months.”

nytimes.comIs Rabies Making a Comeback?As several states report surges in animal cases, federal officials are warning about an apparent increase in human exposures.

markpalko.bsky.social reposted

markpalko.bsky.social reposted

Yes and also this sort of 'uniparty' nonsense feels so hollow deployed in the midst of a national stove-touching. It turns out the difference between a 'milquetoast corporate Democrat' and Trump was really big! President Harris would not be driving trans soldiers out of the military!

neuse river hag@neuseriverhag.bsky.social

youtubers, streamers, podcasters, etc are always on this beat bc they don't know how anything works & know that if they say something like this, their audiences will lap it up now & also 3 years later when they point to total gay commie revolution not happening and go "see? i was right!"

markpalko.bsky.social reposted

NEW AD: Have you seen these anti-Talarico attack ads? Elon Musk paid for nearly all of them. The world's first trillionaire knows if he drags the most corrupt politician in Texas across the finish line, Ken Paxton will owe him everything. Elon Musk: Texas is not for sale.

markpalko.bsky.social reposted

For years what protected the USPS from antigovernment Republicans screwing with it too much was the fact that Republicans from rural areas would step up and say "Hey, the Postal Service is vital for our constituents." But when forced to choose between Trump and their own people, guess who they pick.

ProPublica@propublica.org

NEW: A ProPublica data analysis shows that delays resulting from USPS’ cost-cutting measures have endangered the validity of ballots mailed in rural areas. Counties that voted for Trump in 2024 have been most affected.

markpalko.bsky.social reposted

Replying to @niedermeyer.online

I love the FT, but any article about this potential merger that doesn't mention the only obvious, screaming motivation for the whole thing happening is engaged in journalistic malpractice this is all about speedrunning a nearly trillion dollar pay package 🎁🔗: www.wsj.com/business/see...

wsj.comSee How a Tesla-SpaceX Merger Gives Musk a Shortcut to His $1 Trillion PaydayA critical clause in the CEO’s Tesla stock award would wipe away lofty performance targets if a merger happened.

markpalko.bsky.social reposted

the combined company would have a negative free cash flow of at least $54b, it would have to divest or ring-fence the Chinese operations that produce 22% of Tesla's global revenue, and the two firms do billions in related-party transactions, but the merger makes sense because ✨buzzwords✨

Financial Times@financialtimes.com

The world’s richest man is preparing for the 'AI singularity' by trying to fold SpaceX and Tesla into a single company spanning rockets, satellites, internet service, chatbots, social media, robots and cars ft.trib.al/FBrypdo

markpalko.bsky.social reposted

Yeah, this slop-project sucks, but on the upside, the view count suggests that it is boring and being ignored too. Let us hope it remains so.

Joel@sentantiq.bsky.social

Scholarly Klaxon: If you haven't heard of universitas Scholarium, be prepared for horror of an initiative that uses the scholarship of dead people to create new academic-slop universitas-scholarium.org/the-project

markpalko.bsky.social reposted

I am old enough to remember when #Tesla was projecting 20 million/year *in new car sales* in 2030. At 50% margins! Complete with renders of plants totaling 80 million square feet at their Texas site. Any other company, in a sane market, would get a BIG re-rating… but not in this fake US economy.