Con Flambers

Con Flambers

@themagicconch19.bsky.social

Tempered optimist. Wisconsin politics and other things. Certified EMT. Opinions are mine and mine alone. He/him Blog doing deep dives on politics and history here - https://delving-deeper.ghost.io.

2.3K followers800 following9.4K posts

Con Flambers reposted

Nute
@nutedawn.bsky.social

a weird set of people who only exist online are people who celebrate the defeat of global fascism in every other country and are then horrified and appalled at the idea that they should also be expected to vote for their domestic opponent of global fascism if some of their stances are Problematic

Con Flambers
@themagicconch19.bsky.social

Lula's last 2 wins are such an L for anti-electoral political people, honestly. Man is helping save the lungs of the earth and meaningfully preventing the acceleration of global warming, but voting is cringe and capitalist I guess or whatever

Con Flambers reposted

Moira Donegan
@moiradonegan.bsky.social

These people don’t want to win; they don’t even want to persuade. They want a world where they are a pure and rarified elite, with none of the responsibilities of actual power, only the smug gratification of being right.

Con Flambers
@themagicconch19.bsky.social

It is pretty much always a good idea in electoral politics to try to peel away voters from your opposition. How you do it matters, but yeah.

Bill@bill-of-lefts.bsky.social

what is an *actual*, *specific* opinion that you hold that will be unpopular on bluesky ? Mine is that Javier Milei is horrible but probably did a better job in fixing Argentina’s hyperinflation crisis than any of his opponents would have

Con Flambers
@themagicconch19.bsky.social

Like Dems have mostly sewn up the "I am a Republican, but not a TRUMP Republican" type people. The vast majority of GOP voters ended up being fine with and frankly heavily supportive of Trumpism as a political project, but that tenth or so who weren't... yep, Dems already win them.

Con Flambers reposted

Dan Mauler 🎃
@meelar.bsky.social

I just think Matt's wrong about this. We're at a point in our technological development where a ton of problems spill over national borders--if Flavio Bolsonaro burns down the Amazon, that will flood houses in Miami.

Con Flambers reposted

Stacie Rosenzweig
@ethicking.com

This is not the response in Wisconsin, unless you are trying to vote and don’t have valid ID on you. If you get there and aren’t registered, try to re-register. If your qualifications are challenged, there is a process. But also call the WisDems hotline, 608-336-3232, or message me. 

Paul Marvin@paulmarvin.bsky.social

Con Flambers
@themagicconch19.bsky.social

While I of course cannot put eventually electing the man above America, I will say this: notably indicative of JD Vance's political instincts that he encouraged Vivek Ramaswamy to double down on that truly diabolical ad, even as other Reps advised against it.

Con Flambers
@themagicconch19.bsky.social

JD Vance's instincts are to be vicious and cruel. The America he believes in is small, resentful, and stews in its own worst impulses. Wish I could say there's no basis for such a belief, but he does at least lack the sort of evil charisma his boss has.

Con Flambers
@themagicconch19.bsky.social

I mean... it's October 25th and the Dems are at D+9 according to FiftyPlusOne. Very possible that by November it's D+10 or more. 🤷

Con Flambers@themagicconch19.bsky.social

A plausible trendline here is the Dems gain 3 points in vote margin every few months or so So if the last poll in Feb had D+2, this one has D+5, by the end of summer it could be D+8, and then by November it could be D+11 (which would be their best national vote victory since... the '80s at least?)

Con Flambers
@themagicconch19.bsky.social

I am trying to resist the impulse to snark because it is rarely productive, but sorry, if you think that the Dems will win Texas because they outvoted the Reps there... come on, man

Con Flambers
@themagicconch19.bsky.social

Explaining: The Republicans will win a high turnout election in Texas because a lot more Republican and Republican-leaning voters live there than Democrats. If a Democratic candidate cannot encourage some defections from the Rep side, they will lose. If Talarico wins, that will be a big reason why.

Con Flambers
@themagicconch19.bsky.social

Like I have lost track of t he number of voter profiles being like, "Yeah, I voted for Trump, but I think Ken Paxton is a corrupt asshole." The dissonance of that statement aside, it's a big reason Talarico is breaking through against Paxton - because he seems to be getting Republican defections.

Con Flambers
@themagicconch19.bsky.social

Looks like Lula is well ahead of his benchmark here with the vast majority of the vote in (Bolsonaro Sr won this by almost 20 points in 2022).

Taniel@taniel.bsky.social

Another state has joined the group that's counted at least 50% of precincts: Paraná, in the South. Bolsonaro is up by 25%. (He led by 28.9% here in R1. His dad won by 25% four years ago.) Also noteworthy: Bolsonaro's edge in Distrito Federal now at +8.8% with 87% reporting.

Con Flambers
@themagicconch19.bsky.social

I am referring specifically to the Distrito Federal, but yeah - in general it seems like Bolsonaro Jr is underperforming Bolsonaro Sr, sometimes by a little bit, sometimes by a lot. He needs to be *beating* his father's numbers to be on a path to victory, and he isn't so far.

Con Flambers
@themagicconch19.bsky.social

Not good enough for Flavio Bolsonaro as it presently stands (Bolsonaro Sr lost to Lula by about 2 points nationwide in 2022 in the runoff, which means he needs to be beating his numbers to be on a solid path to victory)

Taniel@taniel.bsky.social

Another state has joined the group that's counted at least 50% of precincts: Paraná, in the South. Bolsonaro is up by 25%. (He led by 28.9% here in R1. His dad won by 25% four years ago.) Also noteworthy: Bolsonaro's edge in Distrito Federal now at +8.8% with 87% reporting.

Con Flambers
@themagicconch19.bsky.social

"he" here is referring to Bolsonaro the Younger, to be clear. I am not a Brazil expert, I will defer to them but based off of what I've been seeing, seems fair to say that the attempt to suppress the vote from pro-Bolsonaro mayors was in anticipation of a Lula upset.

Con Flambers reposted

mtsw
@mtsw.bsky.social

imagine if a democratic candidate anywhere said something like this about a jewish candidate, would be a ten-alarm fire in every media outlet for days. but the literal president promoting this sort of insane bigotry against a muslim won't even merit a story

Mark Chadbourn@chadbourn.bsky.social

Trump: “Abdul El-Sayed is a jihadist. He should not be allowed to serve in our Senate.”

Con Flambers reposted

jamelle
@jamellebouie.net

i feel like this evan barker person does not understand the joke obama is making, which rests on being familiar with the cheesecake factory and understanding that it is nice but not opulent.

Scott Lemieux@lemieuxlgm.bsky.social

"The party left me. I used to be a Democrat, but know that Obama has made fun of Trump for making the White House look like a dictator designed an over-the-top chain restaurant I favor starving African children and bringing measles back"

Con Flambers
@themagicconch19.bsky.social

Would mean Lula is hitting his number here if you're just using 2022 as a baseline, but you need most of the results to say that with confidence.

Taniel@taniel.bsky.social

The state that is furthest in its count, by far, is the Distrito Federal (Brasilia): 31% of precincts have been counted. Result so far? Bolsonaro is up 9.2%. Bolsonaro won the first round here 51% to 38%. His dad won the 2022 runoff here 59% to 41%.

Con Flambers reposted

BeshearStan
@beshearstan.bsky.social

Kansas Dem Sen. nominee Adam Hamilton on trans rights: “I don’t think we should take a small group of people and bully them, pick on them, and hurt them. I understand one thing really clearly when it comes to transgender people, and that is Jesus told me I was to love my neighbor as I love myself”

Con Flambers
@themagicconch19.bsky.social

This is really not the message you want to be sending just before an election, especially when you're the party in power. You don't want complacency!

BeshearStan@beshearstan.bsky.social

These people are gonna LOSE IT on Election Night

Con Flambers reposted

Chatham Harrison dba TRUMP DELENDUS EST
@chathamharrison.bsky.social

Ditch-digging is pleasanter work than full-time job searching & almost definitionally pays better

Matt Darling@besttrousers.bsky.social

There's this concept that unemployed people should "treat looking for a job like it's full time work" that doesn't really survive first contact with the *actual* labor market. There are very quickly diminishing returns to looking for work.