Fourth Turning Capital 🔸

www.nytimes.com/2025/10/08/o...

This guy needs to go to jail. He needs to be questioned, under oath, then indicted, then tried, then jailed.

Ossoff: "What a mistake he made, reverend, by launching his attack on voting rights here at the civic and spiritual center of the very Black history that the Trump administration tries so hard to erase"

Basically all my findings point to a monster year for Democrats. 1) Special election overperformance compared to the eventual House overperformance in the popular vote is directionally more predictive in midterm than presidential years. 2026 outpaces any other recent year, including 2018.

Authoritarian leaders abroad have repeatedly used their power to weaken political opposition and tighten their grip. In targeting voter registration, Trump is attempting to do the same in the U.S. 🔗: https://demdock.com/47X8ro5

Import prices show building and broadening pipeline pressures led by the AI stack but spreading into consumer products and autos

I took action with Indivisible. Will you join me? Use this link to sign up: www.mobilize.us/indivisible/...

Corporate profits and tax revenues grew together until the Trump tax cuts. Now corporate profits are at an all-time high while tax receipts are at their lowest since 2021.

Are you passionate about election data? Want to help guide a team of researchers in managing the data science workflow of the MIT Election Lab? We're looking for a new Research Director! Share and tell your networks about this exciting new opportunity.Learn more about this position: buff.ly/JT9HC3z

TODAY: Early voting begins in Maine and California, and the process has already started in many other states across the U.S. Are YOU registered to vote? As the Trump administration ramps up its attacks on voting, it’s time to check your registration status: https://demdock.com/4gRtE8P

@jahimes.bsky.social I am one of your constituents. Please take action on AI safety. 80000hours.org/podcast/epis...

‘Warsh spoke of one over-arching strategic consideration: It is high time to declare an end to the emergency state of monetary policy. That means that it is no longer appropriate to maintain the emergency settings established in the depths of the GFC.’ stephenroach.substack.com/p/warsh-on-p...

In my most recent piece for Foreign Affairs, I argue that we actually know quite a lot about how large trade imbalances eventually get resolved – and that the adjustment is almost always painful. The key question, then, is how it will be distributed. www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

Albert Edwards: “Ignoring China's recent monetary tightening could prove to be the biggest investment mistake of the decade.” www.businessinsider.com/chinese-econ...

Diesel and gasoil crack spreads (i.e., refining margins) are at their highest level *ever* on a 10-day moving average basis. Jet fuel cracks still slightly off prior pinch-point crises in March and before that in 2022; while diesel driving it, jet fuel naturally comimng along for the ride.

Trump's job approval at low point of 34%, according to Pew Decline this term primarily from Republicans and Republican-leaning independents: approval down from 84% in Feb '25 to 69% now Partisan gaps in both Trump terms are widest in more than seven decades (followed by gaps under Biden and Obama)

‘Hourly earnings are not growing fast enough to keep pace with inflation and the lost purchasing power will land like one more punch to the gut for workers.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

LOL

This is another step towards a one-party state: only give government grants to your political friends www.nytimes.com/2026/07/24/b...

Looking for ways to help keep our elections free, fair, & safe? 🤝 Volunteer w/groups like VoteRiders.org to help others get to the polls 📞 Save the Voter Protection # at 866ourvote.org 🕊️ Join local Election Observer/Peacekeeper programs like TurnoutSunday.com More: protdem.org/community-resilience

You think Troy Jackson just fell out of a coconut tree?

If you're feeling the heavy weight of polarization and deep distrust in our institutions, join us in taking steady, intentional steps toward action. We outline how we can start building our civic muscles this holiday weekend and beyond: https://www.ifyoucankeepit.org/p/who-are-americas-keepers

US data center construction reached another new record high in official data released today, hitting a pace of nearly $60B/yr (and this only includes data center facilities, not the expensive computers within) Spending's up 23% over the last year and 328% since ChatGPT's launch

NYT polls show Ds have Senate path, but it's close... within margin of error of flipping enough seats to win 51 NC likeliest to flip, ME toss up Warning in OH/AK/TX/IA: % wanting R control 3-6 pts higher than % voting R; Rs have room to grow if majority looks shaky www.nytimes.com/2026/07/01/u...

‘Conventional wisdom holds that the current bull market is all about AI. But if investors' gains are down to a "large deficit model", ​rather than large language models, it means the boom is vulnerable to any tightening of Uncle Sam's budget.’ www.reuters.com/commentary/b...

@michaelpettis.bsky.social

Since when do corporate lobby groups get to dictate the quality of our food? CLICK THE LINK to tell Big Pork to stop trying to eliminate state's rights to demand better food! https://act.link/gi-2y5lm

FREIGHTWAVES: “.. Truckload spot rates hit an all-time high, topping the COVID peak.”

'Global policy rates and commodity prices are rising, tightening financial conditions, with futures markets signalling there is more to come. The environment is becoming less friendly for risk assets.' blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories... by Simon White

BARCLAYS: “.. Last week, long bonds broke. Not in one country. In all of them. Simultaneously. Four countries. Four different political systems. Four different central banks. But the same trade — ‘get me out of duration!’” (via @johnauthers.bsky.social)

High in STRONG disapproval of Trump (52%) and low in strong approval (20%) -> widest gap of term (32 pts) And noteworthy result about key segment of Trump base: last month his approval with White, non-college Americans dipped below 50% for first time in this poll; it's still underwater at 46% today

US spending on data centers & computers has grown so much that it's larger than basically all other physical investment categories—more than all single-family housing construction, factories, power plants, industrial equipment, apartments I'm running out of points of comparison

Trump's approval rating is down 14 points since start of term, from 53% in Feb '25 to 39% now Young people and less politically engaged have seen biggest drops (20+ pts) New lows today with '24 non-voters (30%) and men <45 (36%) And White non-college number underwater for first time (48% approve)

Core PCE was firm in February because of goods. Goods inflation was +0.84%, a huge month-over-month increase (10.6% annualized) and the largest since Jan 2022. Core goods prices rose 2.3% over 12 months. If you exclude 2021-23, it's the highest run rate since 1991.

Republicans hold onto their seat in Georgia's 14th, but Democrats post another BIG overperformance It's a district Trump carried by 37 pts, so this is a blue shift of over 20 pts Most outstanding votes are in counties Democrat is leading (Cobb + Paulding), so current R margin should narrow... 1/2

1/7 Martin Wolf, in an important piece on unsustainable current account imbalances, makes a point that most American economists miss: "the counterpart of external deficits tends to be unsustainable domestic borrowing." www.ft.com/content/49e3... via @ft

1. Iran establishes a toll for Hormuz passage. 2. China begins issuing licenses for rare earths. “.. The lesson is that the way to deal with American economic coercion is to fight back.” @nytimes.com www.nytimes.com/2026/04/02/b...

www.nytimes.com/2026/03/31/o...

Relevant again today - my NYT op-ed from November: The Boomers Are Protesting Trump. Where Is Gen Z? www.nytimes.com/2025/11/24/o...

Literally un-American in contradicting our deeply held civic norms and traditions

share.newsbreak.com/hwclcumn

JUST IN: Democrats tonight have flipped a GOP-held state House seat in Florida. And not just any seat: This is the district that contains Mar-a-Lago. (It voted for Trump by 11% in 2024). That's right: Trump will now be represented by a Democrat, Emily Gregory, in Tallahassee.

‘Deutsche Bank forecasts US CPI to hit 3.81% in April and 4.02% in May. With the Fed funds rate at 3.64%, these rising inflation projections are expected to push the real policy rate into negative territory next month for the first time since April 2023.’ thedailyshot.com/2026/03/24/u...

Lost count of all the times people scoffed at a 1970s-style inflation “double top.” Not as much laughter now. 😞

So dark. Kushner raises billions for his fund while the family of a soldier killed in Truml’s war gets help on Go Fund Me: www.gofundme.com/f/major-alex...

The is the federal government telling news stations to provide favorable coverage of the war or their licenses will be pulled. A truly extraordinary moment. We aren't on the verge of a totalitarian takeover. WE ARE IN THE MIDDLE OF IT. Act like it.

Unprecedented corruption. Literally asking for billions of dollars.

‘On Thursday, a gauge of expectations for inflation over the next year, known as the one-year break-even inflation rate, jumped to 4.62%. That is the highest level since June 2022, when the annual rate of the consumer-price index peaked at 9.1%.’ www.marketwatch.com/story/a-key-...

BESPOKE: "Oil is up 34.3% this week, which would be its biggest weekly change since at least 1985." #OOTT

🚨 BREAKING — Rep. Darrell Issa (R-CA) officially withdraws his re-election bid, missing the 5pm PT filing deadline. He is the 32nd House Republican not to seek another term. The open seat improves Democrats’ chances of flipping CA-48. The newly drawn district voted Harris +3.