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Wisconsin Democrats Vote Against Universal Health Care and Child Care Governor Candidate Francesca Hong, Choose Republican-Backed Democrat David Crowley newsvideoclip.com/wisconsin-de... Republicans spent $3 MILLION attacking Francesca Hong, they got the candidate they wanted.

The problem is that prediction market companies like Kalshi have made exclusive deals with media companies and news organizations. It's why when you see them going over polls on CNN they'll mention what prediction markets are saying.

Odds are what bettors think will happen, not what experts discern through research and knowledge. If there really were experts, they would make money and retire at a young age.

Except in as much as it impacts National Security and National Absurdity.

Perhaps the terrible polling was designed to create $ millions in the prediction markets. Because it’s run and used by the mob. @chrislhayes.bsky.social @elizabeth-warren.bsky.social

Agreed.. I barely believe polls anymore.

Sadly they've been more accurate than the polls recently.

After the primary... Odds of the November 3rd race... David Crowley (D).........95% Tom Tiffany (R).............. 5%

Just a bunch of chuds watching Kornaki like the rest of us, gambling in real time on his every word. ‘Wisdumb of crowds.’

Yes! They haven't been accurate for at least 10 years

Just betting markets, but I’m sure legally can’t be called that there

Prediction markets are political casinos where people bet against America, and not only should they not be covered in the news, but they should also be illegal. It's "Twitter"⸺Oh, I'm sorry. "X"⸺for the bored, gambling addicted Investor class.

Misogyny trumps racism.

…and the house always wins

"Prediction markets" is just gambling and should not be allowed

Did anyone really think she would win after wanting to do away with Thanksgiving 🤔

Especially when he won in the end...🙄

Yes, the 'wisdom of crowds' can be overrated.

GAMBLING sites like Polymarket & Kalshi must never be trusted to give accurate information "Polymarket colludes with X & seeks to maximize attention for its markets- It frequently involves spreading FALSE & DANGEROUS misinformation" "The “truth machine” is lying" open.substack.com/pub/populari...

Don't expect "prediction" markets like Kalshi to predict anything accurately. They don't reflect reality; they simply reflect the opinions of those who are using the site to gamble.

It's appalling how often these are being used as news, official polling, or anything really. It started with the right doing it, but now everybody is doing it. So fucking stupid.

I have no problem with sports gambling other than right now it's too invasive in everything. It's betting on game outcomes. But prediction markets (which is gambling no matter what loophole they use to get away with not being regulated as such) that take bets on non fun and games should be illegal.

🎯

The only “poll” that really matters is the one where voters cast ballots in the elections.

By the looks of that image somebody made bank!

Seems like it will eventually be their downfall too tho. 🤞🏼🤞🏼🤞🏼

Before the advent of prediction markets, way back in 2016, a great many number of pollsters had Clinton handily beating Trump, and "the science" did about as well as the prediction market. Turns out, we are all just guessing.

The goal is to influence, not predict.

But gambling is very profitable and whitewashing its image in the eyes of the public is very desirable for the lobbies preying on people.

Worthless democrats actually voting for Crowley. They handed Tiffany the governorship in one fell swoop.

Im guessing you r under 40? Under 40 is young for making a name for yourself in Politics. She has been a rep for WI for several years, is really dedicated to her constituents & a really hard worker. She is very deserving of recognition at such a young age.

Not surprised. The real left is (mostly) not like the "left" as imagined by third way and the rest of them.

Good for her!

Just another name for gambling

That would have been a nice $1 bet on Crowley

actually, this is how prediction markets fail. if one outcome is heavily favored, everyone will bet the same way. that can't work.

it's no different than when republicans say something like, 'polls say 70% of America think democrats suck.' no sh*t..you spent the last 5 years hammering the false narrative that democrats suck. this is happening with prediction markets.

They’re fucking casinos.

Agree

Exactly!

Someone made big money off the wrong odds baked into the bets

Utah is among a few states suing them.

Whoever bet on Crowley is making some serious money now.

Oh, it's more. Just like an athlete wagering and throwing a game (or just having inside information), these encourage unethical, corrupt, illegal, and potentially deadly behavior.

Prediction markets are not predictive and should be banned.

fuck prediction markets

“A fool and their money are soon parted”.

These “Truth Machines” are lying to you. bsky.app/profile/mexi... @juddlegum.bsky.social

Basic stats. Skewed sample.

Amen

The polls started this problem.

Dems were lucky this time. They took away a real problem. These voters were savvy, and realized that she would not be electable in the general.

Odds that prediction markets are wrong: 99.9%

Anyone in that platform deserves losing their money.

It's outrageous that CNN seems to cite them as a credible adjunct to polling.

Yeah but "AI" isn't Artificial Intelligence either, yet here we are.

Online gambling might be a scam you say?

Don’t prediction markets also pay news sources to cover them? (Per you and Judd Legum?)

Events with a 5% probability happen 5% of the time

Suspect a lot of people lost a lot of money and so deserved it!

I think that gambling has gone too far.

One of the dumbest bets I've ever seen🤣🤣

Prediction markets need to be outlawed.

🤣

💯💯💯

Opinion polls are opinions, not facts.

Kalshi: nailed it! Good job!

Has anyone actually done an academic study on the accuracy of these predictions? There are many legitimate reasons to oppose Kalshi & Polymarket, but I always assumed they’ve been more accurate than polling for predicting elections.

They aren’t crystal balls; they’re just high-stakes mood rings for people who think their bias is a hedge fund.

Be careful of racist democrats

MF you people!! All I see is racist 

It's crap like this that earns them their huge profits. Anyone who bet on Crowley made off like bandits. Anyone who bet on Hong took a bath.

Just another form of gambling…just sometimes with insider info

Amen.

I hope people lost their shirts on this race. This is why it needs to be illegal.

Good news is that a lot of idiots lost money

Clearly a case of too much focus on Hong by Fox News. They obsessed over her because she made the perfect foil and their audience bought in.

I don’t even care about polls!

Polls and prediction markets mostly serve as a warning to the Establishment that they need to put last-minute resources into a race or else people might get healthcare.

Translation: a few people won big money and a lot of people lost it.

the many (too many) ways that gambling is tolerated in the human psyche in moderns times is such a fuqqin dog whistle that the corpo-crypt-rats are preparing all us "little people" for the future of a Hunger Games style existence.

Wonder what percent of them spoiled their ballots by voting for Hong and then republicans down ballot! 😂😂

Nobody could have predicted canceling Thanksgiving.

Gambling brain rot at critical levels

We need a forensic investigation. If it proves the elections were clean and free from digital manipulation, great—we can move on with confidence. The women Trump purportedly beat, did not investigate the election upsets, due to their (Democrats) “peaceful transfer” values.

They serm to me to be more of a "what does everyone think everyone else thinks."

They are businesses that only do one thing: collect profits from idiots and gambling addicts.

they should not even be legal...

Can’t bat 1,000 but cc @profgalloway.com

He should have bet on himself

Yeah, 51/49 polling is entire consistent with 99/1 odds. Two entirely different set of numbers.

Wow 😮

At best they represent a tool to incentivize specific criminal activities with vast sums to be made only by the person who controls the outcome entirely. This is not Gambling because there is no chance only crime and money.

Last I heard Donjr and Eric were major parts of Kalshi? Seems like MORE market manipulation... 🤷‍♀️

It also tells us how poorly surveys are these days

I wonder how many dumbasses parted ways with their $ on that.

The polls are misleading and shouldn’t be allowed. I woke up expecting Hong won and was shocked to see she didn’t. Crowley had 16% in the polls and won! Either way he’ll get my vote in November.

Bullshit! They're not prediction markets, they're gambling sites...

Absolutely, I think states have the right to sue them as Gambling services, I'm actually surprised the Tribal Territories haven't tried yet either.

Someone made a bundle on that. It's entirely possible that people bet on Hong not to win but to juice her "poll" numbers.

this

The rise of the DSA is not so inevitable either.

They're also rigged. Look into "market makers", basically they get rich fucks to take the unpopular bets but also allow them to decide who wins them.

That's a tweet from kalshi. Use a picture of the news showing people that, I'm sure they are. But that's not what this picture is.

😂

They should be called “Responsive Markets”

*Dammit, predictive

Trump children business!! These are money grab ventures by Trump and his children. Anybody using this to cover any meaninful discourse is a fool!! Look at this nonsense!!

You didn't use enough words for your intended meaning to come across

Is that real? Too funny! I hope the Trump boys lost a ton of money on that. :-)

In horse racing, you can almost bet that the favorite (the one backed by the most bets) will lose: the betting favorite wins only around 1/3 of the time.

I always think back to HS, where our Valentine’s fundraiser was a matchmaking questionnaire. They were equally as accurate.

They skew the predictions intentionally

If you think about the arithmetic of it all, predictive markets are obviously skewed. There's no incentive for those odds to reflect reality if they want everyone to lose.

Cosigning that. But the media will hype them to hype their stories.