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People are reading this way wrong. Schumer detached DHS from the other five bills in return for a two week CR on the DHS bill. Now Democrats can make demands on DHS spending without having to shut down agencies covered in the other five bills. They have way more leverage to get real concessions.

John@johnlk.bsky.social

People just going out here saying the literal opposite of what happened. Thune caved! Thune did! This is a cave by Thune and Senate Republicans, any possible way you cut it.

382 reposts1.1K likes

bsky.app/profile/wash... This is their 'three main goals' with it. So forgive me for not trusting them about this. They'll water it down further and likely not even try to reduce the amount of funding.

The Washington Post@washingtonpost.com

Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said the party agreed on three main goals: ° Require warrants in some cases and ICE coordination with state and local law enforcement ° Create a code of conduct and enforce it ° Require agents to wear body cams and not masks

What leverage? The shut down was the leverage. A second shut down would’ve been humiliating for Donald Trump. The optics would’ve been “we’re standing up to murderers and they can’t govern.” You shouldn’t have to put peoples lives at risk just to keep business booming for the wealthy donors.

What leverage do they have in two weeks after Trump starts his next crazy idea in the public pressure the White House is facing from the shooting subsides. This was the best possible moment to get concessions. You sacrifice the leverage of the shutdown and public pressure. It’s objectively terrible.

No no no you have to understand,Republicans LOVE funding the federal government! They would do ANYTHING to keep tax dollars flowing to all sorts of agencies!

This deal literally keeps funding going to all sorts of agencies. The only agency in danger of losing funds now is DHS. Which means this particular shutdown can drag out for a lot longer than a full or partial gov. shutdown could.

" Now Democrats can make demands on DHS spending without having to shut down agencies covered in the other five bills." You must be a believer that if you roll over and give your opponent 99 percent of what they want, they will have to give you what you want

No people are not reading this wrong. By only focusing on the DHS funding people are missing the larger point. Dems shouldn’t be voting to fund ANY portion of this lawless rogue government. The entire goddamn thing needs to be shut down. No Epstein Files. No Funding. Period.

There are 12 appropriations bills, each covering pieces of discretionary spending. DHS spending was bundled together with Commerce, Justice, Science, Energy/Water and Interior/Environment. All of those agencies would shut down if nothing passes. Now, the negotiation is only over DHS.

Doesn’t DHS have plenty of money to keep carrying on without appropriation process. Without the leverage of shutting down the rest of government isn’t this just a push of current conditions? Sorry, I’m missing something here.

I'm not super clear on what the OBBBA money can be spent on, but the ICE/CBP annual appropriation on top of the OBBBA money is massive. Almost $30 billion annually. OBBBA added something like $30 billion for deportations and $45 billion for detentions over 10 years.

No were reading it in the context of history. They had leverage many times and stopped after they " made their point" so i'd give it less than 1 percent chance of follow through on anything. But, if he somehow does follow through on anything meaningful. I will immediately get on here and appologize

I'm sorry, but the only way you can see this as democrats NOT caving is if you think their objective should be anything less than Abolish ICE and prosecute them, and shut down the entire government until it happens. Those are OUR objectives. Less than that is caving, yes.

To anyone reading the bullshit from the person that blocked me: NONE OF THAT OTHER FUNDING WILL GO TO THE LIFE SAVING PROGRAMS YOU WANT IT TO. They are pillaging our treasury. Stop fucking pretending that other funding even exists anymore! FFS, have you people been paying any attention whatsoever?

Nonsense. Mark my words: Schumer surrendered again by giving away his leverage ⤵️ bsky.app/profile/jnav...

Schumer surrenders again, giving away leverage: 💩 --- Dems Clinch Deal With White House as Shutdown Looms @axios.com "The deal doesn't promise Democrats the changes they want" ☑️ www.axios.com/2026/01/29/g...

That’s because it’s complicated and 90% of the people whining the most only want a fight. They don’t want to accept a win without one!

I heard about this plan a few days ago from here bsky.app/profile/dday...

David Dayen@ddayen.bsky.social

3-Senate Dems will try to advance the other five spending bills (which are relatively bipartisan) without DHS. 4-All of this would require Senate Republicans to agree, and the House to come back and pass before Friday. Both unlikely.

Sahil Kapur@sahilkapur.bsky.social

A Democratic aide says of the new deal: “Sets a 2 week clock on DHS funding by itself. If republicans don’t do shit for two weeks, DHS shuts down and there’s little incentive for us to reopen without the guardrails on ICE”

We previously had a zero-week clock on DHS funding, and other funding held hostage as well. Now we've given up 5 of the 6 hostages and given the GOP 2 weeks to change a currently very Dem-favorable factual/media context before the next deadline. How does this improve our position?

There seems to be a number of people who are reflexively indicting the Dem leadership for the temporary funding of DHS. Note: I completely understand considering the trail of ineptitude, feet shuffling and navel gazing posturing that Jeffries and Schumer have made their stock and trade.

And the reality was that there was not going to be a real negotiation for meaningful ICE/CBP policy changes before funding ran out tomorrow.

sooo let funding run out. Let the entire government shut down. Let everything collapse until the billionaires panic and also start demanding that Trump be removed. Americans are being executed in the streets. No less than shutting everythign down is acceptable.

Billionaires wouldn’t feel financial pain in a a millennium. Everyone dependent on a federal government check, from GIs to your grandparents on Social Security, would be in desperate straits.

I won’t judge them till the receipts are in except on the messaging. It is beyond terrible. Dem leadership should have been camped out in Minneapolis a week ago minimum. They are being dragged into action and it shows. Hopefully they get dragged far enough to matter. I hope so

Schumer's asking to: ° require warrants in SOME cases & ICE coordination w actual law enforcement (287 agreements nationwide?) ° Create a code of conduct & enforce it (make me laugh!) ° Require agents to wear body cams, not masks (& turn them off as desired) You call these "demands"? F off!

Real concessions? An ICE with more money than the US Marine Corps is a monster which should never have been created in the first place. It has to be destroyed and replaced by a much smaller, much saner alternative with rational objectives.

"Chuck Schumer is the Minority Leader, and not the Majority Leader of the U.S. Senate." "C. Schumer is always Dealing with, (The Devil in the Flesh) and it's next to impossible to keep the Devil, and (Devil-Dogs), from being Dealbreakers." Just Saying!!

Your words in gods ears, because I don’t trust Democrats in the Senate to do the right thing. Any vote for DHS funding needs to get a no unless it is part of the package that this GESTAPO behavior is stopped immediately und officers are investigate for violation of existing laws.

Well half the people commenting of this site yelling opinions on most things work at McDonald’s and Target and aren’t actual lawyers or politicians with an understanding of how the government actually works.

I'm not sure. Usually that kind of spending pays for new investments (new detention facilities, equipment, etc) rather than salaries for permanent employees. But I haven't read OBBBA closely. Wouldn't be the end of the world to spend down the OBBBA money on day-to-day stuff though.

True, but the amount of money is so vast and Trump has repeatedly shown zero hesitation in moving money around without legal authority to do so. The massive DHS slush fund has to be factored in to any analysis of leverage, and in light of it I'm not sure Dems have much at all.

Yep, which is why this is a cave. Democrats gave up all their leverage. In two weeks, it won't matter; they'll try to declare victory by giving a couple of hundred million dollars more for training (beer fund/fishing trips).

Yeah, no way we hold together the political will if masses of Fed employees and food stamps aren’t getting paid, we very well might if it’s just DHS agencies against the wall. I sure wish FEMA wasn’t mixed in that agency though.

The reality is the opposite. A shutdown of only DHS makes the debate about DHS. bsky.app/profile/did:...

Sahil Kapur@sahilkapur.bsky.social

A Democratic aide says of the new deal: “Sets a 2 week clock on DHS funding by itself. If republicans don’t do shit for two weeks, DHS shuts down and there’s little incentive for us to reopen without the guardrails on ICE”

Can you explain this for me? I've seen it a couple of times and don't really understand. Won't they have less leverage, because they can't threaten other spending and logroll? And because Rs won't have to take the popularity hit from being blamed for a shutdown any more?

The minibus packages a bunch of agencies that Democrats like with a bunch of agencies that Republicans like. DHS is one that Republicans like. So Democrats will be more willing to force a partial shut down because the worst case scenario is a bunch of DHS employees don't get paid for a while.

Since I have the attention of an expert... So could the Democrats actually shut DHS down when it comes up in two weeks? A lot of people seem to be saying that ICE and CBP are funded through other mechanisms and wouldn't be affected, or at least not immediately... I'm not sure if this is accurate.

Absolutely. ICE and CBP got a ton of money in the OBBBA bill, but that's over 10 years and the annual appropriation is almost as big. A lapse in funding would likely leave most DHS employees unpaid during a shutdown, although I'm not familiar enough to say that for certain.

So, would you agree that if the negotiation results in mandating no masks, visible IDs, and only working within 100 miles of the border then it was worthless and a huge mistake? Because those things are worthless.

Maybe if bluesky folks are misunderstanding the dem strategy, the Dems might try better/ consistent messaging? We are stronger when we all move forward together, and that requires understanding each other first.

Ah bullshit, DHS has enough funding for the next decade, Schumer was so shook by the F word escaping his mouth, he went to Trump and folded as always! Dems had leverage but that’s now gone ! QED

The need for faux revolutionaries to kill Dems at every turn is disgusting and wrong. They pull off solid wins, and the idiots STILL trash them. THIS tactic is EXACTLY what we wanted, and they call it a "cave"???

Check this shit out motherfucker [I slide one foot out from under me and fall on my ass, its not clear what kind of move I was trying to do] - Dems; what a win, giving Trump extra time to regroup.

Sahil Kapur@sahilkapur.bsky.social

A Democratic aide says of the new deal: “Sets a 2 week clock on DHS funding by itself. If republicans don’t do shit for two weeks, DHS shuts down and there’s little incentive for us to reopen without the guardrails on ICE”

I mean, for one thing two weeks is plenty of time for ICE to shoot more people. We had 3 shootings in 3 weeks, and that’s not even talking about the homicide in one of the ma y concentration camps they run. That’s just 3 shootings in 3 weeks in one city.

They will not be stopped no matter what. They have all the funding they could desire in the BBB. Carving this out from the CR to keep us open means NOTHING in terms of their function. It does let us kill the new money in 2 weeks. No POLICY can be legally added to budget/CR bills. Dems did well here.

There is a crisis *right now*, not in two weeks. The lack of urgency from the warm and comfortable on the Hill is a betrayal of all of those in MN risking their lives daily to protect their neighbors.

It's urgency that got this done. Carving out DHS from the CR means we keep open, stay on top of everything we need done and in 2 weeks we can fight the DHS part without imperiling everything else people depend on. DHS/ICE have billions already in the BBB that NO Dem voted for. This is smart tactics.

If Schumer is such a brilliant strategist why isn't he on every media outlet explaining what he did so people understand? Right now many are saying that Dems caved. If this is not true, he needs to educate the people. Why are Dems so bad at this?

What is the win here? The Dems gave up the one lever of political leverage they had. In two weeks none of this will matter, Trump will get his funding for ice and nothing will change. Eventually the resistance against ICE will weaken and we will live in a police state akin to Putins Russia.

You don't know anything about me, but making a standpoint argument here isn't going to accomplish anything. Neither is pretending this configuration of the state isn't different or more insidious. Neither is implying that nothing should be done about it?

I don't think it will weaken, the way things are going it's going to escalate when it becomes clear that Dems aren't interested in helping

I hope it doesn't, but every day the overton window shifts more to the right. In a couple of months the argument might be over how many citizens get to be deported with Democrats saying they got Trump to only denaturalize those who became citizens in the last 10 years vs his initial demand of all

You have it backwards - Dems want the government open because Dems like govt programs and govt workers. Republicans don’t give a shit about the govt working. Remember DOGE? Or the longest shutdown in US history? Rs *want* to stop paying govt employees in DC and VA

Yes. They are also rightly blamed for the last government shutdown. The polling numbers for Dems improved from it, until they caved. This hurts their political project, which isn't to get rid of the government, but to consolidate central control of it. What happened with the promised ACA subsidies?

Im for this, but Im not sure I would characterize it as a more leverage situation. Holding up more funding can provide a bigger lever if your serious, but it harder to keep everyone in line. This may be smaller but easier to whip given the focus.

"Now Democrats can make demands on DHS spending without having to shut down agencies" Fun fact: you can't actually make demands when you do'nt have a majority if you're not willing to force a shutdown, which is the only leverage Dems have.

Sahil Kapur@sahilkapur.bsky.social

A Democratic aide says of the new deal: “Sets a 2 week clock on DHS funding by itself. If republicans don’t do shit for two weeks, DHS shuts down and there’s little incentive for us to reopen without the guardrails on ICE”

Dems care more about hurting Americans than the GOP does. The other 5 bills constitute the bulk of government agencies that prevent Americans from dying; the DHS bill is largely about airports and related shit. Dems care less about people making their flights than people dying, while GOP cares more.

(Shutting down DOD as they murder people in the open sea and play king in foreign countries was a nice side-effect and should’ve been in the table today)

We had hope of Democrats shutting down the government tomorrow would stop the ethnic cleansing and terrorism. I'd usually be far more pragmatic, if not for all the, you know, ethnic cleansing and terrorism.