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It kills me because they're so wrong *all the time.* And dudes like Nate Silver or Harry Enten have been citing them for a decade now & like... they're supposed to be smart. How many times do you have to get burned before you realize the people betting in prediction markets are stupid?

Hahaha an analysis of who participates in these markets in one image. Thus completes my PhD in Political Data Analytics. Claude, please update my CV accordingly.

Just because something has a 98% chance of happening doesn’t mean it’s wrong if it doesn’t happen.

The manipulators of this 'market' suck money from another tit.

Yup, confidently and increasingly wrong until the time for predictions is in the past; par for the course

Burn these sites with fire

what if you bet on the Atlanta Falcons, but it's the news

Why does that add up to more than 100%?

On prediction markets, do follow @rajivsethi.bsky.social , see this , substack.com/@rajivsethi/...

Ah, but it never was wisdom. It's the sum of their opinions. Spotting when they are wrong is the game.

Its funny what they are betting on now. We really have a gambling problem in this country.

It’s crazy because it was the exact opposite with Talarico betting markets read that race right the whole time even when polls had Crockett up. GOP side not so much.

Feels like this says something interesting about money voting vs people voting. Anyone keeping a list of all the times polymarket does this?

Among the article's comments on the grift: The real TACO trade = Trump's Associates Close Out

I'll probably get flamed for this. I wouldn't trust shit with 62K$ volume. Not sure when it has statistical accuracy, maybe 200M$? I'm sure some math nerd could come in and say... Still, agreed. At 200M$, a billionaire, or a couple of them could influence easily. It's just another data point.

You Republicans go get f

Funny how they are less accurate at predicting things when the outcome cannot be controlled by insiders.

hey, they got there in the end!

The sophomore Psych major is taking a business class this semester (her dad talked her into it), and the stuff she texts me is both hilarious and concerning. She’s pretty sure the guy teaching the course is living in his own reality. What are the odds they’re *all* sniffing the same glue?

These things are vampiric

A 98% chance of X is a 2% chance of not-X. Every betting market has the occasional long shot come in.

Has Paxton filed a lawsuit yet?

If you understand how gambling works then you’ll know how ridiculous that statement is Or Texas is extremely corrupt

Economists, sadly. Prediction markets are a bit like crypto. People thought they might be awesome from a theoretical standpoint, but nobody considered the side effects they now have in practice. The thing that got me interested in economics is how much bad economics I have to tolerate every day.

They were following the polling.

the polling did also show Paxton with a small lead

Polling is a sample to determine outcomes. A prediction market with an outcome of 70% probability of a thing happening (for example), does not give that thing a 70% chance of happening. It's simple what dollar amount a group of people are willing to risk and for what reward.

The Big Short

With insiders who do know, manipulating the odds so they can cash in on their bets.

Like if you place a 10 million dollar bet on a candidate winning how much would you be willing to spend paying someone to falsely accuse the other candidate of something awful a week before the election. The whole thing is bad for democracy.

A fool and his money,...

Giving “Dewey defeats Truman”

They really nailed it there right at the end

Right until they aren't. Wonderful.

Look at the volume Hardly anyone placed a bet

I'm no mathematician but shouldn't this happen approximately 5% of the time in 95/5 split markets?

The underdog lost too though, the middle dog won. Volume was only $62k, tight for a Lambo

Don’t worry Phil they’re only being used to determine if we should drop a nuke or not

I don't understand this critique. If the market is so bad at pricing and calibration of odds, smart people will make money.

Our country has always had problems... But has it ever been this Stupid?

Well, here's proof positive that the election was rigged!! Seeing as the bettors never get it wrong...

The only winner in that race was the guy who got one percent.

At the very end, 100% right....

bsky.app/profile/hear...

Just realized you’re no longer affiliated with WaPo. Just re-followed you ✊🏾

The funny thing about this is that it will make them more popular. “Market is dumb” = easy money.

Devil's advocate: there's only $62.5K riding on the whole thing. It's going to be noisy.

And Don Jr is on their board.

finance.yahoo.com/news/polymar...

Those wheat fields work if somebody wants to go recluse!

People had Hunt at 25% ?? 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

WileECoyote always looked really smart too until the 1T Acme crate fell on his head.

If it were that easy I'd simply bet on every 60/40 (or whatever threshold) event each morning from the deck of my yacht in Bermuda. Betting markets are made for profiting off inside information. Otherwise it's just gambling.

Probably paid off based on who got most votes in first round regardless of whether it advanced to second round?

Prediction markets are only informative as to who is placing bets. This excludes include women, working poor, elderly and tons of other voting groups. The markets got lucky with the 2024 elections because of the huge wave of younger men who both voted R and are active in prediction markets.

polymarket bros have to be one of the funniest things to come out of the 2020s

Eat shit, Ken Paxton!

Those betting markets are giving charts a bad name.

Now use this realization about the wisdom of markets and you'll be better able to understand why Warren Buffet has been sitting on so much cash as of late.

It still doesn’t predict shit even when there is insider trading! Even worse when the betting insiders are in a position to leak misinformation (length of Trump’s SOTU) they will lie!

@thebulwark.com @timmiller.bsky.social please don’t go all in on prediction markets. Not everything should be a casino

at least this election year may expose how wrong and dumb it is to think of prediction markets as polls or any worthy information whatsoever.

We’ve quickly gone from “twitter is not real world” to “bluesky is not real world” to “TikTok is not real world” to “prediction markets are not real world” - the last one however could cost actual $$& to be proven wrong

Just like the stock market, this assumes the bettors or investors are informed and rational.

@richard.wickedproblems.earth