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I understand the freakout here but honestly this one reads as a sign of weakness to me a) peltola is going to win by more than the second dan sullivan's margin b) this argument is pathetic, and if their strategy is 'throw pathetic shit at the wall and hope something sticks' I'm less worried

Carl Quintanilla@carlquintanilla.bsky.social

* TRUMP ADMINISTRATION SUES TO BLOCK ALASKA SENATE RACE CERTIFICATION IF REPUBLICAN LOSES, CITING CANDIDATE NAME CONFUSION -- AP REPORTER ON X @reuters.com #AKsen

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Their strategy is always 'throw pathetic shit at the wall and hope something sticks' and if something doesn't stick they just move on and try something else. (You can do that when you're backed by the richest people in the world and have a well-organized army of amoral sycophants at your disposal.)

Other Dan Sullivan has a right as an American to run for office and other Americans have the right to vote for him. And I fucking dare the GOP to set laws on who is allowed to be considered a "legitimate" candidate

Doubly so because they're doing it *last-second*, if you wanted to truly cast doubt on the result and start laying the grounds for a drawn-out Florida-2000 style ratfucking, they should've filed a month ago! But they know it would've been tossed and forgotten weeks ago if they did!

Specifically, SCOTUS will probably say it's non-justiciable, Constitution Art. 1 gives Congress itself the power to judge election controversies. SCOTUS would wash their hands of the matter and walk away.

They have absolutely nothing. The only way to stop elections in a nation this size is troops everywhere. Even if they had the stupidity to do that, they have 11 days to mobilize millions and dispatch them. Oh, he’s going to nationalize the national guard? Good luck!

Yes, I think these are throw-stuff-at-the-wall delaying tactics, but I don't take much comfort in it. Trump's MO for 50+ years has been… 1. Do bad things, 2. Throw everything at the wall to delay consequences, 3. Rely on enough of it sticking for just long enough, 4. Fail upwards, repeat

Micah@rincewind.run

I understand the freakout here but honestly this one reads as a sign of weakness to me a) peltola is going to win by more than the second dan sullivan's margin b) this argument is pathetic, and if their strategy is 'throw pathetic shit at the wall and hope something sticks' I'm less worried

Didn’t Republicans run ‘ghost’ candidates in Florida with the same names as Democrat candidates to confuse voters?

We are incredibly lucky they are so dumb and lazy If anything, this has a high chance of backfiring and costing them the House seat as well

See my problem with this is that if it will work or not. My problem with this is a good number of American voters who see this and shrug because their only focus is their pocket book. There’s no collective conscious of America anymore and that doesn’t bode well for the future.

It also just seems like pretty dumb legal strategy. Announcing a plan to challenge the results *preemptively* sort of taints the attempt to actually do it

I don't know the details but I think it'd be challenging on ballot design / access grounds, not "the results" per se I think it's a bad case in any case

Oh sure, but I mean they're challenging the ballot design pending a loss, which feels like putting the cart before the horse a bit. It's effectively announcing "if we lose here's our backup plan"

I don't even get what the 2nd Dan Sullivan does in the race. Alaska's ranked-choice voting system make it moot! Voters who want to vote for the "real" Dan Sullivan can just rank one of them as #1 and the other as #2, and all votes will get to the "real" one in the end!

Accordingly, if the actual goal of this play was ratfucking the Republican candidate, Alaska is the stupidest state you could have done it in. I have no idea why the "fake" Dan Sullivan did this and other people giving signatures went along with it.

I agree that the danger point is the seating of the new congress, but if this is the caliber of legal argument we're going to be seeing to support their efforts to overturn the midterms, they are going to have to do it without court backing - yes, even SCOTUS imo

It also seems like the more they do, the more they force Congress to go full on investigation mode. Jan 6 shows how members get highly motivated when their election is challenged.

It’s an interesting theory, this Alaska case: Court: your argument is that voters are too illiterate to know which Dan Sulllivan they voted for? DOJ: well, we would say they will be confused. Court: on that premise, then, statistically half of the subset of “confused” voters would vote for Dan J

Other DOJ lawyer: "Uh, no. An equal *proportion* might be confused. But since our Dan is 10x more popular (from vote totals, polls), the confused votes will generally break the wrong way).

and half for Dan S., right? DOJ: No, we argue that all votes for the independent, J, would be erroneous. Court: what if those folks aren’t, in fact, confused, they just prefer the independent, J, over the S candidate? You

want me to pre-emptively take away their vote? DOJ: well, no, only the J voters are confused and would otherwise vote for S. COURT: so the S voters are not confused. DOJ: No. Court: show me the evidence for that assertion. DOJ: the evidence, your honor, will be the final vote

legally speaking this is absolutely correct, and between this and the pathetic lawsuits you're looking at a situation where they're going to have to basically conduct an armed coup if they want to do this and, look, these guys are desperate, maybe it all goes real bad but that's a much bigger lift

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They would have a much better level of emotional support from the troops that they would need for that armed coup if they hadn't had Hegseth -aggressively- running things into the ground and being fairly distatseful to all military people ('no tab pete').

I agree with everyone you're saying, but also, they've shown they're willing to do a coup. I don't think any of this nonsense is ultimately going to work for them, but it's going to be a chaotic couple of months.

I am not saying this will happen but it isn't beyond the pale that they might try something like using the National Guard conveniently already in DC to bar entry to Congress or detain elected officials "while the courts decide".

Mexican here. We had that fear in the elections of 2018 but once you cross the threshold of 50% in both chambers of the legislature and get the power with trifectas in many of the states the coup game is over. Vested interests prefer a party they don’t like in power vs political inestability.

fundamentally where I'm at on this: their legal arguments are going to fail, and they are going to have to decide if they want to run a military coup based on losing congress in the midterms I don't think they will, in large part because donny still gets to be the president in that scenario

Gotta wonder too if generals and soldiers would even follow the order. He's made their lives meaningfully more difficult and they've seen Trump/Hegseth and their treatment of casaulties. It doesn't exactly inspire hope.

Their (laughable, shitty) theory is that every Sullivan vote is for a be wrong Sullivan in their favor, and so unless we win the race by twice the Other Sullivan vote they will persist.

I think they bitch and moan and scream about FRAUD and get laughed out of court and spend the next two years getting in increasingly dangerous spats with congress where they just flatly ignore oversight and budget stuff, aided and abetted by the Court I don't think Jan 3 ends with gunfire

Basically, since 🍊💩 is going to remain in office after 1-3-2027, he will leaves this to all republicans in congress to fight it this out. They can learn in real time that the 🍊💩 is out for himself and only himself!

Also isn’t this under ranked choice? If you rank both Dans Sullivan your vote will be counted even if you voted for the wrong one first

I think any Trump lawyer willing to put their name on this filing probably takes a: “That sign can’t stop me, because I can’t read” approach to the argument you’ve laid out here

The problem with their argument is that they are infantilizing Alaska voters. They are assuming that every vote for "Dan Sullivan" is meant to be for the incumbent, which I can tell you is not the case in Alaska. 1/2

I actually think more people will now vote for the other Dan Sullivan instead of Ohio Dan, the incumbent, because people will be pissed that Trump is trying to tell them what to do. That's the Alaskan way. F the feds and outsiders even if it's Trump. 2/2