Post

a good metaphor for politics is when you have a drill for boring holes in a board, and you find a hard board, and you immediately give up

Jake Grumbach@jakemgrumbach.bsky.social

A helpfully clear exchange here Hasan: "So your argument is that [Minnesota ICE protesters] should stay at home because immigration is a salient issue for Donald Trump. Opposing ICE is only going to help Trump. Wait until we win the election in 2028." Yglesias: "Yes that is what I would have said"

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The notion that you can earnestly tell a protest movement that they're "not politically helpful" and expect to be taken seriously is both bonkers AND a depressing illustration of how anemic American protest movements really are.

I’m sorry, but Matt just isn’t actually very smart. I sincerely do not understand how it came about that so many smart folks listen to him I really do not understand this

Yglesias has always been a centrist dipshit and he is always been a person who loves to be wishy washy in the extreme He and other pundits like him are the reason Dems messaging has been so pathetic Their strategy and positions are why the past ten years have been wasted in, don't go too extreme

that guy has never worked on a single campaign. I don’t think he’s ever even had a real job. The fact that anybody listens to this bullshit artist is baffling. The only thing he believes in is his career.

recalling that the actual quote from Max Weber about "slow boring" is 180 degrees away from limp dishrag centrism. he explicitly says you have to be a hero who reaches for the impossible

Iglesias thinks politics is top down exertion of state power and anything that isn’t aimed at maximum top down exertion of state power is useless politics. It’s anti-democratic, stupid, false, and abhorrent.

My theory is that he misread it as "slow, boring" and thought it was Weber's description of the perfect Substack/podcast hosting style.

that is the other thing. in order to stop the natural and organic reaction against ICE’s fascist occupation, you would need an oppressive force even more violent and tyrannical than ICE itself bsky.app/profile/gold...

Nathan Goldwag@goldwagnathan.bsky.social

I do not feel the need to engage with this argument morally because, as a political strategy, "impose Democratic Centralism on everyone left-of-center" is about as viable as "achieve true communism in our time".

“everyone shut up and let your neighbors be kidnapped and murdered in the street. a substack guy thinks that might slightly increase Democrats’ odds of winning the next election”

Also what is this but not self censorship, a thing that I had to hear a lot about when it was conservative professors mad they couldn’t blame black people in class

generous of you to even consider the possibility that yggy has read or cares about the original context. this is a guy who was explicitly told by his philosophy professor not to go into philosophy. in some nontrivial way christine korsgaard is to blame for the world having to deal with him

This is why I'm so pissy about data-obsessed twits who insist the public cannot be swayed on issues. If you SAY it is a problem they will move towards you! Trump did this constantly, the only reason liberals won't is cause of ideology and interest groups!

Have a half baked metaphor between Matt and early baseball sabermetricians who ignored defense because it was harder to measure. Figuring out what affects winning the next election is easier than what changes public opinion over time, so maximize the former and pretend the latter doesn't exist.

Actually better to just assume you'll lose and prepare a totally immaculate concession speech Actually better to just take a lethal dose of sleeping pills while you're young and healthy so you look nice at your funeral

Cowardly centrist in the dictionary etc. Just a waste of words and air. Ignore any and everything this guy ever says and the fact that he gets paid for these stupid and oblivious bon mots shows how worthless punditry is.

This is what stupid is if we was to do this and keep silent they would go and run us over! Because he has no bottom line! There’s no way in hell we stop don’t ever be silent! You’ll be helping them if you are! That’s what they want you to do shut up and do what they want you to!

It's just the stupidest theory of change. People look to their leaders to know what's important. If nobody raises a fuss about jack-booted thugs terrorizing people in the streets then they assume it's not important.

The threshold for a valid protest with these people is set just before citizens need to organize a guerilla force to bomb train tracks and throw molotov cocktails off highway bridges...

Probably started out with the sensible idea that it's not a bad idea to emphasise your strengths; thought himself very smart; was rewarded financially by being contentious; painted himself into this corner.

I think this is a bit unfair and his point is more subtle. If winning is the not thing that matters that there is a good chance Matt is correct because it displaced news that was even worse for Trump. It is a fair theory of change.

Does Yglesias really not recognize that the Twin Cities’ response to ICE was instrumental in turning immigration into an issue Trump is now losing on? If he thinks that would have happened anyway, we’re into extraordinary claims territory and I would like to see his evidence

Yes? The point is that as long as immigration is salient it is Trumps best issue still because it turns out racists. If it isn’t an issue then other things where Trump is even worse become the most salient things and drives voting. It isn’t crazy as a theory.

The civil rights movement ended segregation but also led to Nixon's election so who can say if it was a good idea. Probably would have been better not to march, which just raised the salience of the right's best issue and turned out racists.