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I've been researching the idea of Unconditional Universal Basic Income since 2013. Here's a collection of findings I've compiled from various UBI experiments and studies of cash transfer programs around the world. This will be a VERY LONG and ongoing thread focused entirely on empirical evidence. 🧵

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UBI WORKS "We have not found any evidence of a significant reduction in labor supply. Instead, we found evidence that labor supply increases globally… and the existence of some insignificant and functional reductions…These reductions do not reduce the overall supply…" mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/22/9459

Alaska has had an annual UBI since 1982 averaging about $1500 per person per year. This is one impact: "There is no significant effect, positive or negative, on employment as a whole, although part-time work does increase by 1.8 percentage points, or about 17%." harris.uchicago.edu/news-events/...

harris.uchicago.eduUniversal Basic Income Policies Don’t Cause People to Leave Workforce, Study FindsCHICAGO – February 14, 2018 – New research from the University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy suggests that a universal basic income would not cause people to leave the workforce.

Then a study of merely two years on one village in Africa where likely people are already very entrepreneurial to survive is then added to the list with Alaska's one-time stipend and everything else. You have to study ALL indicators in ONE place over time with MONTHLY UBI.

I know this is counter intuitive in our dominance culture, but people need work. They need to be productively engaged with others on a shared purpose in order to have a sense of well-being in their lives. UBI will not cause unemployment, rather it will open opportunities for better employment.

Leah Gazan, the NDP member for Winnipeg-Centre introduced a motion in favour of a national UBI two years ago. But her party is ambivalent & was reduced in numbers in the 2025 federal election. But the issue remains alive in that party and the Greens in Canada & to a lesser extent with Liberals.

We had the opportunity for a basic income in Ontario Canada. The pilot programs $2,000 a month no questions were very successful but in their wisdom (not) they voted for Buck-A-Beer that never arrived and we got a mobster premier who is handing out public property to his developer buddies instead

I hope once the current regime is in ashes that the need for strong evidence based policy will be more clear. No policy should be based solely on emotion/reflex. I initially was skeptical of UBI, haven’t studied it like you have but the more I see, the stronger the case gets. Even Nixon supported!

And given the inroads of AI & automation jobs could decrease and/or change, can’t count on tech bros to consider implications of their work, will fail to make sure workers land safely, retrained. How much unnecessary costly stress can be reduced if you know yoj can keep a roof over your head?

I have to confess I haven't read this thread in its entirety, though I did get a good way down it. I didn't see any mention of potential inflationary effects, supply and demand imbalance etc. Was anything recorded on these issues in places where trials were done?

I've had a quick read through and will go through it more slowly and watch the videos later. In Britain we have a big issue with house price inflation which tends to sop up any spare cash in the economy. Looking at UBI as part of a package which reviews taxation and price controls makes more sense.

Great thread. I’ve saved it for later reference. Thx! We have an enormous and growing abundance in our society. In our current design, that accumulates in a few hands who park those resources in the finance casino. The value is drained away. UBI can flow that abundance back into the real economy.

The Kenya experiment is 12 years and covers entire villages. The Uganda one is 7 years and an entire village. Then there's Alaska which is 40+ years and the Eastern Band of Cherokee Indians which is tribe-universal and that's been going since the late 90s.

This country has become so far removed from the values of its founders. Right-wing "capitalism" is based on resource scarcity and fears of never having enough. Fostering the common good is threatening to them. They only feel powerful as long as there is a minority of the unempowered.

There is no such thing if you are looking for one single thing covering everything. For example, here is IMO the best peer reviewed summary of employment impacts. But that's not everything. www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12... Here is a peer reviewed UBI journal. www.degruyterbrill.com/journal/key/...

degruyterbrill.comBasic Income Studiesp>Basic income is a universal income grant available to every citizen without means test or work requirement. Academic discussion of basic income and related policies has been growing in the fields of...

You missed that it's much cheaper to run. Currently we means-test tax AND means-test benefits, which means we're doing expensive bureaucracy 2x for the lowest earners. UBI just tests tax, everyone gets relevant benefits, so you can get rid of one of the most expensive gov departments.

Benefits become a simple (cheap to admin) eligibility test: do you have kids, do you need extra help for a disability, are you old etc. Everyone gets them, and pay more tax to cover the difference. The bureaucracy savings are immense.

this is also something people don't get about universal healthcare SO much of our system costs are just shitty bureaucracy. everything would be much cheaper if someone could have a small private practice without an entire huge-ass billing department

Scott, this is fantastic thread. But time and again there are 'experiments' in UBI. They all show positive results, so why has no-one implemented it (except Alaska)? Is it because it is too expensive? Universal Benefits are very expensive.

In the UK we have a universal benefit (to pensioners) to help pay for heating. It started years ago at £10 pa. Last year it was £600. So expensive that the current Government has tried to means test it. Not popular! All costed schemes for UBI, I have seen have either been inadequate or too costly.

Just because conservatives try to claw back money doesn't mean its "too expensive". The Winter Fuel Payment costs the UK government about 2 billion pounds a year. The total UK yearly budget is about 1270 billion.

Of that, the largest expense is debt interest, followed by health, capital projects (roads etc), and defense. To extend the fuel payment to every UK resident, instead of just people born before 1954, would cost only 20 billion, or a bit under 16% of the defence budget.

As a college debater, then a coach for Iowa, I've worked with the Guaranteed Annual Income topic 3 times. We can solidly prove the value of this. So many problems would be solved and a great deal of money saved. But, willful ignorance prevails.

I don't know about that. I'd like to see EVERY Congress Critter guilty of Insider Trading, sent to Martha Stewart Jail. I taught First Amendment and Media Law for 18 years. SEC Law is violated frequently. Examine Marjorie Muppet Greene's portfolio for verification.

People can't stand folks getting something for nothing. I'm not a bible-head, but Matthew: 20 is human nature. If people don't like the idea of a Basic Income then create a type of Americorps program where everyone does a bit of community service for their denarius. Could be fun & enriching.

Thanks for sharing! It’s remarkable that such a simple idea would have so many meaningful benefits! I really hope to experience UBI in my lifetime.

I very much support the idea of UBI but what's the funding model? Current benefits spending of £265bn would offer around £400 pppm. If UBI was £1k pppm where is the other £335bn ish coming from?

We always knew that UBI works. It is the extreme corporate capitalism, and its anti socialistic prejudice, that does not work and stands at odds with UBI. So, you cannot fix one until you fix the other. As usual, US will be one of the last western countries to implement UBI for its public, as usual.

Universal basic income is not there to replace a good days work but there to give security to those of us that do work it allows us to not have to worry about food and rent if hours are reduced it allows us afford better healthier food I love the idea and wouldn't stop working 👍🏻🙂

Someday everyone will have access to a UBI check. Perhaps it will play out like NYC & water. In the late 18th-early 19th century Aaron Burr had a scheme that sold running water to the homes of the rich for $20 a yr. Few got it. Today running water is so popular that every home has running water.

Great. I'm all for it. But it'll never be politically accepted until people stop believing the neo-liberalism lie they unemployed people are lazy and deserve to be poor. This is where we need to fight this battle now

Yes. Anybody can get a job. But when there are 100 people and 10 jobs, however hard they all try to get a job, 90 will fail And be depressed And give up trying And find other solutions they can live with And the cost of keeping them alive falls on society anyway Or they die. UBI is cheaper.

Feel free to start any time as chatGPT has already taken away my translation jobs and my co-workers. But don't send a check to me, I have Social Security and still do AI janitorial jobs and surveys. Give to groups helping immigrants in NYC.

That smells like LLM hallucinating to me. It is possible that the SRD grant could transition into a basic income, but that remains to be decided and is still being debated.

Yes. They are giving false hope. There is not even enough taxes being collected to pay the SRD. People have to reapply every month. Luckier ones only reapply on average every 3 months for SRD. Universal healthcare has been adopted into law but not implemented.

if you have been researching it that long, then you must already know two things: 1) to save the economy we need some sort of UBI 2) because our society relies on poor people being willing to do shit jobs for shit pay to avoid starvation.... a UBI will categorically never ever happen right?

The pandemic showed that the US only 20% of jobs were vital and that 20% of workers kept everything going for the other 80%. “If we don’t starve people into work people won’t work” People already don’t work. The unemployed, underemployed, disabled, retired, elderly and so on.

People are already starving or homeless and they a job. UBI has already shown that people work more not less Millions have already received ~UBI in the form of social security and some still work The wealthy have money and they still work

Instead of the government, forcing Americans to pay for the electricity usage of the A.I. corporations. The A.I. companies should be bankrolling this. This is definitely how you make America Healthy Again. The A.I. companies could just invest on the new industries on the back end and profit.

Thank you for the effort involved in putting this all together in one place. This is both heartening and disheartening at the same time. So many issues improved by simply giving money to people, but I know that in the USA we are getting politically farther from doing this. Sigh.

What impacts have been observed on government budgets for prisons, policing, benefits, healthcare etc. if the impacts of UBI reduces the need for all interventions, would the savings offset the cost of introducing UBI?

You rock for compiling all of this. It's time has to come, but, we'll have to chose progressive candidates to get this passed. Here in the US, it's going to be a while. :\

I care about all that stuff except their "labor supply". We can keep essential work going, and let the rest.. rest. We've ran the disposable junk mills for long enough, the weather report tells me.

I wonder how Sweden does it? It was nice dining and restaurants there, knowing that the wait staff was making a livable wage. I hate dining out in America because if you’re not in a high-end restaurant, the wait staff is making pennies. Young folks in the workforce are taxed higher than older folks.

I wish, but that didn't seem to work to save the enhanced child tax credit unfortunately. Despite a 10 to 1 ROI on that. I think it should still be part of the overall argument though.

Yeh, it's really hard to make people understand that helping people is a great investment. Especially govt. Is it because so much effort has gone into blaming poor people for ... well, everything?

The list is also mixing and matching states/countries/situations. So $1500 annual stipend in Alaska which likely isn't even one month's rent in a place where housing could be more expensive, is touted as "no effect on labour."

It could be hard to quantify, but very easy to observe that mental stress causes at least as many physical illness problems as virus/bacteria or injuries do. UB reduces the stress of day to day existence that most people experience.

This should be the foundation of every politician who believes in America First. A universal basic income is an investment in every American. Whether they use the money for education, groceries, automobile maintenance, quality mattresses, clothing, copays for Dr visits, this $$ is an investment.

Thanks for the thread, and I shall have a proper look at it when I get the time. Obviously the cries from any political opposition would be "How will you finance it ?". A idea I have wondered about is to ensure that Companies that reduce their workforce, due to Automation, having a higher tax burden

UBI tends to be much cheaper to administer than the necessary checking eligibility for- and compliance with- welfare programs. Generally, it leads to a larger tax base and higher tax take. Reduced health and court costs also need to be factored in. So many advantages!

Perhaps put some limitations in, like size of company, and charge companies perhaps (e.g.) 25% of the equivalent of the workforce's pay, which they frankly can't argue with. Sadly, being 7 years away from retirement, I can't see it happening before then, it should certainly be seriously considered

You should be looking at military retirees for a long-term UBI study. These folks (me) typically retire from military service in their late 30s-early 40s. Get a pension and medical care for life.

I retired Navy at age 39. I can attest that my pension and TriCare medical has been a life-changing event, compared to my non-retiree colleagues. I have the freedom to change jobs without worry over medical or income necessities.

I have a stack of postcards from a project I did a while ago. I have decided to write my MP and the PM every week, because they need to hear from me and postage is free and the postcards are cool.

Poverty arguments actually don't work well. I agree with it personally, but polling shows it doesn't work as effectively as others like economic freedom. Unfortunately, way too many people believe poverty is deserved and that poverty will never happen to them so who cares about abolishing it?

Are you kidding? Lots of people, particularly powerful and wealthy people, LOVE poverty. It's LEVERAGE. The threat of poverty keeps people in crappy jobs longer. It allows businesses to push wages lower and work hours higher. Much like (for e.g.) H1B visas and the threat of deportation.