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Asbestos as a metaphor for where I suspect we might be going with LLM tools: rapid push to shove it into everything as a "modern solution," then an eventual "oh shit" walkback.

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This isnt great but sounds relatively uplifting for graphic designers and photography, that "oh shit" moment when a company realizes they're indistiguishable from digital vapor and are now looking over their shoulder in case a judge can't distinguish if they're a money laundering front Proof of life

A former colleague posted on LinkedIn that ChatGPT 5 might be a better product but he was going to continue to use 4o because it had a “better tone” and he trusted it more and hoooo boy

even better to think about how even if we killed genAI and LLMs immediately, we'd probably be putting up with its tail effects for decades, remediating and rebuilding everything that ever used it, and probably also the TV commercials about class actions and such

The US FDA banned thalidomide because of one FDA pharmacologist, Frances Oldham Kelsey, who saw early reports of birth defects and worked to stop approval. She ended up getting an award from JFK for her work.

Yup. I’m telling my independent design consultant friends to hang in there for the unfuckening work. The technology just doesn’t do the thing. It will take an annoyingly long time for some people to acknowledge this tho

The latest iteration of ChatGPT is already an "oh shit" walk back, they eliminated a lot of the emotional manipulation stuff and people are PISSED their AI pal has been stolen from them. I'm guessing it was an attempt to not get sued into the stratosphere when folks use it for terrorism or suicide.

Well, it’s pretty good to make the comparison to a carcinogenic. It just misses the parasitic part, but slop is a cancer that just keeps growing, displacing important sources of information in a way that can make critical parts of society no longer function.

Makes me want to look up some old letters-to-the-editor or wherever people did discourse when asbestos was being banned. Bet theres some disturbingly-current-sounding bad-faith concern trolling to be found.

This is a great comparison because when used correctly for certain applications, asbestos is useful as hell. There's a reason it was so widespread, it's one of the best fire resistant materials ever made. It's just, yknow, wildly toxic to human life, nbd.

I think the “oh shit” walk back will come when the market proves unwilling to cover the full cost of inference and the VC and big tech funding that currently covers it dries up. I don’t think people are willing to pay the real cost of these products.

I think it’s going to be similar to the post-2000 corporate outsourcing frenzy, where a lot of dogshit code was written by underpaid foreign contractors. There’s going to be a *lot* more work in about five years to clean up all this buggy code.

This is not a knock on the majority Indian contractors from back then. Most of them used that experience to jump to better paying jobs within six months, and good for them. The turnover rate was so high that none of those firms could properly finish projects.

So today there are a lot of what are now, technically, legacy code projects from 2000-2007 that are just complete shit, barely functional and almost impossible to replace. It’s similar to the 80’s-90’s era mainframe stuff. It sort of works, but the people who really understood it are gone.

So we’re going back into another new shiny dev cycle where it’s going to be absolute shit code for several years, and then a resentful admission from non-technical dipshit managers that maaaaaybe the code that was written wasn’t very good and has an absurd amount of technical debt.

honestly feels good to me asbestos has its uses still i’m sure and also incentivizing against unnecessary usage will fund alternatives that minimize harm this is exactly what one should want with LLMs imho use them where they are fit for purpose and low harm obviate with alternatives elsewhere