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Today Microsoft moved all its GitHub copilot subscribers to token-based billing. If you want to see what happens when people have to pay the actual costs of AI, the day is finally here. It's obvious that every customer sees the deep, meaningful value and isn't angry at all.

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I'm not sure if it doesn't depend on what you are doing. Modern systems can use chains of requests to refine the result some, and I'm not sure that's predictable or affects the pricing (could be the attempt to factor that in so it's invisible to the user in terms of cost).

Yeah, i'm not coding so it's basicly a rough calculation from mine. But if you goes above 1$/h to use this tool i cannot see how you can backcharge enough your client with your own revenues costs added.

people in my team ran out of tokens without doing literally anything with the chatbot. I tested with like "ping" and it stopped processing after 2 seconds. good job microsoft. apparently "a bug"

Shoulda used Linux and done your own work yourself 😝 The real question is will companies pay. Everyone should understand how Microsoft operates. They hook you and jack up the prices believing those with loot will pay their outrageous exhortation demands

Uh-oh, looks like they're running out of bubble investments to subsidize the price. Get ready to put on your best I told you so and/or shocked pikachu face when your LLM-loving friends start complaining.

For no reason I'm thinking about that story where an apple growing town in China lost its bees, replaced them with human pollinating labor and made headlines for increasing profits and efficiency, and then a few years later it turned out labor was too expensive and they just stopped growing apples.

Ive been telling my proompter colleagues and acquaintances to remember streaming services and software as a service - theyve been getting dependent during the "take a loss to build user base" stage, and then prices shoot up. Just as predicted. But instead of listening they just called me a luddite.

A lot of people saying “users will just move to XYZ product” and that may be true for vibecoders or individuals, but corps don’t move that fast and often have a lot of other requirements or circumstances that lock them into Copilot. Or maybe that’s just an issue where I work, idk.

Oh I agree, I’m just saying I’ve seen many commenters say to switch to a different product and that’s just impossible for a lot of enterprise companies. But yes, ultimately the subsidies are going to run out for everyone.

Yeah, it's an age old ploy. Artificially low introductory prices are quite common in business. We've all been victims to them at some point. Not to say it isn't shitty behaviour.

Love a bunch of replies in there being "well, I replicated copilot's services locally with my [$10,000 GPU], so that's probably the path forward"

I got mine for half MSRP years ago, but however you can get 16 to 24+ GB of VRAM, even with mismatched GPUs, most people can get more than enough LLM for the forseeable future. There's an incorrect belief that immoral, expensive, centralized datacenters are the only way forward.

They will keep paying for it one way or another. People are still buying $15 value meals when they used to be $5 a few years ago. They're still buying 12 packs of Coke for $13 when they were $4 a few years ago. They will keep paying. Likely they'll fire people because this timeline SUCKS.

Tokens are the individual pieces LLMs use to predict and construct responses, usually a few letters or maybe entire words. They're basically actually getting billed for materials now, instead of paying for just the number of end results they want. Still a bit simplified but that's the gist.

Basically they bill usage of the genAI model based on the number of tokens (basically words or parts of words that are processed by the model) that the system has to process to produce a reply to a prompt. It's kinda like the shift from flat rate to per megabyte billing for Internet access, though..

Thanks. I was imagining a manual carwash wch makes me buy tokens. It doesn't make me buy a subscription, then reduce the water or soap flow-rates over time, wch then forces me to buy more tokens. In the AI case tokens are not payment; tokens are intermediate tasks AI completes.

Instead of paying a subscription for functionally unlimited use you pay as you use. Think like if a pizza place had a MoviePass for pizza, everyone but them saw the insane consumer upside and bought one, they realized it would bankrupt them and then started selling at $100 by the slice only.

And this is absolutely still subsidized as much as they can manage. They know how bad this looks. They would want to soften the blow as much as possible. This is *the best they could do* to keep the price down. What a wonderful day

Following the meltdowns in /r/GithubCoPilot, and while I'm seeing individuals seeing their estimates jump to $3000 on a previous $30 spend, it's going to be interesting to see the /corporate/ billing on 100 developers :)

Mouahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

Software used to be a near-zero-cost occupation. If you could get your hands on a cheap laptop and an internet connection you could learn to code, make something rad, and start a career. With this push to AI everything it will soon be only for the rich kids. An unfathomable loss. What a shame.

I mean, coding by hand is still very much a thing. And really, I’d suggest any new programmer ignore the hype and start there. There’s gonna be a bunch of work available for those of us who didn’t outsource our brains to LLMs to clean up the messes caused by them

The problem with analogizing it to Uber (which can be the only viable way to get around without owning a car in some places) is you can't make traditional software development become impossible to do. Keep doing what you're doing.

Lots of internal communications going on about this where I work as people are reporting hitting 25% of their monthly on day 1, if not more. This is going to be a bloodbath.

Token billing is revealing something interesting, flat-rate subscriptions hid what these workflows actually cost. Now that usage is being priced more directly we're getting a clearer picture of the economics. Does the ROI still look as compelling when the subsidies disappear?

Token subsidies means folks have relied on "agents will figure it out". We've been working on a structured layer for steering and guardrails which, in addition to resulting in better, more consistent code, also results in up to 42% token savings. Cost going up means first principles matter again!

I will never, ever willingly pay for #AI 1) Because it sucks, and I have to work 3x as hard to remediate the consistently garbage results from all of the #AI tools I am forced to use. 2) I don't want to give one more dime to this f**king Silicon Valley broligarchs. Starve them out of their f*

Same. Think the hangover starts Q3. We should see demand drop (if it hasn't already) soon, which will cause ai data center demand to collapse, which will cause new model training to be seen as too expensive to risk. I think the earliest indicators are going slowdown in release cadence of new models.

Watching people meltdown: hilarious. Knowing my company is actively onboarding with GitHub Copilot: overwhelming depression.

Well, it won't last. Everything is being moved to token based billing. Companies aren't going to find a way to justify the exploding costs coming their way with no way to predict those costs or even articulate to anyone what those costs are even getting them.

Wait you're saying I shouldn't use a hundred tokens to write an email about being late for work, and then another hundred tokens summarizing my boss's response about me being late?

Well, maybe, maybe a few people will even learn that just iteratively checking stochastically plausible symbol salad is a mildly inefficient use of computing... Maybe? Like 1 or 2?

The Microsoft way is to have a lengthy free period, build dependence, then start charging. Because something like co-pilot is totally unnecessary to do any work, it should be easy enough to ditch it. Anyone who down-sized their dev is about to find out that ai is more expensive than a developer.

Either that or it's getting too expensive to subsidise. I mean there is some massive outlays going on with this stuff and I can't help thinking that they're over-cooking it by quite a bit.

Someone must have read that and leaked this 😋 bsky.app/profile/404m...

404 Media@404media.co

SCOOP: An internal Microsoft strategy document says that the plan for its just-announced “Scout” personal assistant AI is to “make people addicted” to the tool before rolling out additional functionality, 404 Media has learned.

Back when we were doing AI usage discussions in my organization we had the warning to treat AI as a "very eager intern." But interns learn from their mistakes, whereas an AI agent forgets its training without constant reminders.

Well the idea is that you're supposed to be doing the learning. Building a flotilla of skillset files and system prompt and agents and whatnot for each special purpose so you can keep its context uncluttered for each task.

Really quite funny to read that reddit and see so many predictions coming true at once: * disbelief that it can be that expensive * management completely in denial * comments that it is okay to pay more for complex tasks but unacceptable not to be unable to predict what a given task will cost

Unfortunately, I still think plagiarism bots won't go away. Some who really have come to rely on LLMs for coding will figure out how to run simpler models locally, trading off worse performance against limiting expenses. But, crucially, that won't recoup investments into OpenAI, Anthropic, etc.

Also, full blown ai servers are going for like 20 grand a pop, and can consume 2kw of power. Not sure what performance you'll get with that, plus setup and maintenance headaches...

There is a whole range of possibilities! People can run open weights models on a laptop with 32 GB and no GPU using Ollama... if they are okay with 5-10 min wait times for a response that is likely going to be useless. For the moment, they will play a kind of API subscription service whack-a-mole.

I suspect even this is still less than the real cost, though it is a lot closer to what it used to be.