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It's no "Nikolai Tesla predicts mobile phones" is it?

That’s why it’s a singularity: it’s an asymptote approaching infinity, giving a divide by zero error: any result is possible, and not predictable.

there's so many things to love about that graph. human extinction being represented by a drop of gdp; "ai boosted growth" being actually the same as no-AI; the whole thing being in direct conflict with the headline. it's a work of absurdist art

Wow

Has the tech industry accidentally invented the initial stages of a completely new kind of mind, based on completely unknown principles, using completely unknown processes that have no parallel in the biological world? OR The illusion is in the mind of the user softwarecrisis.dev/letters/llme...

"If much remains unpredictable, you are not describing a marathon. You are describing being LOST IN THE FUCKING WOODS" - youtu.be/WB9YwATU5eI?...

2/2 What's worse is the TESCREAL sociopaths weren't even hiding their intentions. Curtis Yarvin (Dark Enlightenment's 'founder') has been holding seminars about it since the late 90s, the Heritage Foundation made it their priority for Reagan getting election in 1980. It's been out there all along.

That's the plan of TESCREAL anyway - the reason they're pushing for this tech to take off so quickly. I mean, look at the billionaires and their bought-and-paid-for politicians who back it and Dark Enlightenment. This has been the plan for decades.

We've narrowed down our possible outcomes to everything and anything. Good luck, humanity!

In either scenario, nothing to worry about! Either we’re so rich we don’t care or we’re all dead and not capable of caring. Might as well go to the beach today and play bongos.

I shouldn't be surprised but I can't believe they actually published a chart like this.

… that’s a pretty big range there

Anyone who knows anything about Musk, Altman, Thiel et al can tell there's absolutely no way AI will end scarcity, so we can scratch that off

The worst part about total human extinction: limited opportunities to increase shareholder value.

Genuinely, realign that x-axis, and the y-axis may as well be 'How many black leather jackets Jensen Huang owns'.

gdp per capita... Who fucking gives a shit. None of that money is bettering our lives. Abundant productivity without abundant compensation.

Brilliant. Tummy aching laughing

Only a Sith deals in absolutes.

it's a cult, so yeah, sadly some do

Has anyone started a bet on Kalshi yet?

but the regular predicted trend has darker dots! thats good!

This is from an old british satire TV show called Brass Eye. It being nonsense is the joke

Well if there is no more humans then there is no more demand so no more scarcity, or at least people around to tell us about the scarcity. So chart checks out

Something will happen, or it won't, or something else will happen, or it won't. Source: made it up.

"AI boosted growth path" I don't need AI to estimate that path, IT'S THE CONTINUATION OF A STRAIGHT LINE. i can do that with a ruler!

Everyone's dunking on the pink and purple lines, but let us not overlook the infinitesimally upwards blue line, optimistically labelled AI boosted growth. I thought I had a hair on my screen.

The weird thing about “end of scarcity” is that none of the AI stuff so far and none of the recent tech before that had the effect of even reducing scarcity, which would require distribution of gains. Just pulled out of nowhere

It’s like Y2K all over again

for comparison, when the comet killed the dinosaurs, how much did that affect GDP in 1990 dollars?

This graph should include "average salary"

📌 New (embarrassingly bad) AI modelling

That article is filled with so many insane arguments and quotes, not the least is which "AI will make infinite GDP which means the end of all scarcity"

I want to see the numbers behind the slope of human extinction that the federal reserve bank of Dallas cooked up for the AI apocalypse. What factors make it a slower descent into the lord of the flies scenario than the singularity’s ascent, Fed banker?

Indeed. Also the people controling AIs are the ones enforcing that scarcity and taking advantage of it. They would rather destroy the world than let other people enjoy the same luxuries as them.

Can AI make me a sammich?

Anyone else find it suspicious that they label the long-term trend line as the "AI-boosted growth path"? If we actually followed that line, it seems that it would not be "AI-boosted" at all; in that case AI has added zero value. Which actually sounds about right, honestly...

None of these lines are remotely plausible. The "boost growth path" is just what happens if there's no AI at all, too.

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.

My favorite part is that "AI-boosted growth path" is nearly identical to everything that came before it, implicitly letting everyone know that AI is horse shit.

I just don't really buy the end of scarcity upside, at least in America. If AI boosted productivity that much, our ruling class would let the rest of us who are no longer needed die in the street rather than share any of that windfall.

OMG that chart is craptacular. Just needs a little Sharpie to scribble over the bottom line LOL too funny

What they mean by 'end scarcity' is there'll be a few rich gargoyles and everyone else will be suffering in the wasteland they created. I don't know how AI is going to magic up more water or things that power our current society.

its always "just around the corner", they just need "a few billions more"...

I mean the corporations create scarcity they won’t allow anyone to end it.

Ending scarcity doesn't require AI. We could have done that at any time since the beginning of the first Industrial Revolution. It just requires the political will, and plenty of sharp, pointy objects.

End of scarcity because of AI is just complete bs. So far there is not a single thing that would make such outcome possible which makes all possible outcomes for humanity to be between total extinction and literally no impact

Paying customers are probably lower still, although a lot of people get generative AI because of their firm owning a contract.

Or because it's being used to make dumb shit like "What if the cast of Friends were goats?", or for simple searches Google used to do accurately.

I’m not convinced that’s the case: most AI tools are separate & obvious right now & using AI is a choice corporations have to make & know they are making for audit reasons alone

IBM said all the world needed was 250,000 personal computing decisions. That’s after Visicalc was available.

Sure, sure, a tech that has ever increasing power needs is going to create a post-scarcity world while ripping through natural resources. They made a chart even.

I'd say human extinction is the most likely outcome even without the AI assistance.

Indeed - since AI will do near zero for food, only the down graph is likely

Will this work on kalshi

Yeah the less imaginative the listener, the less it works.

Except what likely is to happen is what we haven't even imagined. /s

MODERN DAY BABA VANGA: i actually have no fucking idea what's going to happen, ever EVERYONE: Damn, she was really cooking there

The logarithmic scale in the graph make it better.

ah but of course, the Finance Rags. Stats pulled out of the most silver encrusted arses for sure.

It’s from the Dallas Fed. Which is either better or worse depending on how you think abt it.

I was thinking Sam. Too bad, because there are actually decent projections for each of those (implausible) outlier scenarios, but they don't zoom off to infinity like that, or that fast.

prageru ass graph despite the labeled axes

Like how the "Ai Boosted" trendline is literally just the same trendline as pre-Ai. Like, what's the boost? "It'll be a massive gain, or a massive detriment, or it will do nothing but we'll pretend it did.

Given the quality of decision-making from the #EpsteinClass even when we know *exactly* what's happening, the safest bet is generally "entropy".

They seem pretty confident time will continue forward in a linear fashion

It's a real-life Tom Friedman Graph!

Except none of them can say how it will get there. Just that AI will be intelligent enough to make itself increasingly intelligent all by itself soon. Cool story huh? I don’t want my superannuation (401K) anywhere near that shitshow.

It'll be the funniest thing ever if the AI "productivity boost" turns out to be nothing more than that a lot of humans got quite excited and had the digital equivalent of the zoomies for a couple of years.

Not only is this the graphical equivalent of the shrug emoji, but if you tilt your head to the side a little it actually looks like the shrug emoji too.

possibilities of ai: nothing different happens, or, possibly, and this might just be conjecture but just stick with me here, something different happens. woah. mind. blown.

You could make a chart like this for betting on a game of Russian roulette. Hey there’s a decent chance you make tons of cash that way but also, hmmm there’s the also substantial chance of BANG! But we must pull the trigger because otherwise shareholders might not profit. Argh.

So I looked this up, and the written explanation of the "singularity" events is even more fucked up than the chart. I stand steadfastly by my long held belief that economics is useless pseudoscience and bullshit. I have more respect for bloggers than economists. www.dallasfed.org/research/eco...

Wait, this is real? Not a joke?

My money is on ending scarcity because oligarchs are renown for leaving buckets of money on the table for the servants to help themselves to

My favorite AI chart

That escalated quickly.

Love the FT for that (and their unrelenting hatred and mockery of crypto).

give me a better lagenda you knobheads and i might be able to somewhat understand someone understanding it

according to my calculations, I dunno

Am I the only one rooting for Team Extinction?

"AI-boosted growth path" and it's just a continuation of the current trend lmao

I don't think anyone who takes the concept of "the singularity" seriously understands that it's just science fiction. Innovation in computer technology requires exponentially more time the further we attempt to drive it smaller and more powerful. It requires experimentation, not just more compute.

Rotate it 90 degrees counterclockwise and it looks like a literal shrug

Same. BUT ITS A LEDGER. EVERYONE CAN SEE IT! Lmao, ok.

FT article source - www.ft.com/content/60df...

I don’t think GDP per capita matters to most people when only 5% of the people will see any of it. What do I care when my share is zero anyway?

We all know that this graph is wrong. The real likely growth of the gdp per capita is 0.21%

The good news is that we may get to find out who was right really soon. Or is that the bad news?

odds of ai deleting pictures of your grandma hovering at 99.9 percent

We don't have scarcity problems, for the most part. We have resource distribution and stewardship problems.

I bet they even got ChatGPT to write the copy

Just curious how AI "ends scarcity " like this is some underwear gnomes ass plan

Death or glory or meh.

Remember that fan fiction some of them wrote some time ago? With zero sources, just a pure speculative sci-fi short story.

Taking the concept of "tech singularity: end of scarcity" seriously is a clear sign that a writer only rearranges words they have heard instead of thinking or understanding (like an LLM). The idea is that computers become very smart and then... previously scarce resources appear out of thin air?

The singularity is the Rapture, but for techbros. Same bullshit scam, different wrapper.

Fork in the road, indeed

I love that the stupid projections about human extinction or human paradise obfuscate that "ai boosted" society is just the existing trend line for the actual motion of the US economy, suggesting that it's not actually making things better at all

This... was generated by AI, right

JHC this is from researchers at the Dallas Federal Reserve

interesting that the AI-boosted growth just follows exactly the trend line from before we had AI

Not mutually exclusive paths, tbh. If humans become extinct, the scarcity problem is solved.

So a 66% of improvement.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

"Could" That is the important part of that chart. "Could..." "...Provided that people all follow a strict plan that could easily be derailed by one greedy dickweed who holds all the money and power and....ooooh."