Post

joocifer@joocifer.bsky.social

As a data guy I don't really like this chart, but I'll try to highlight a very important part - --> it's the candidate, stupid. It can't just be hoping for a national zeitgeist It's how popular the candidate is and how well they articulate problems a *majority* of people actually feel.

We just want to win for once. If moving to the center is going to get us the majority then do it. Too much to fix. Social policies can also happen, but we need to be in power first. This is how Biden was elected.

not a single one of those graphs indicate that a majority of voters want the Democrats to move to the right, though? like that was just invented whole cloth?

With my critical discursive psychology head on, the answers demonstrate that people's 'object of thought' for left, right & socialism etc. differ, are complex and are self-constructed. Hence not universally applicable & understood generalisations, so can't be aggregated in the way this poll attempts

What questions were asked? I suggest: 1. Do you want your income taxes to pay for your medical care or a private police force for the president? 2. Do you want a government that supports server farms even if it means you lose your house? 3. Should the rich control elections and the government?

Which means we ARE a big tent. What we need to do is stop trying to get far right voters on board. Concentrate on talking to people. Invest in normies not donors.

Left and right are cultural signifiers in American parlance. They no longer signify anything economic. Those people probably want a tight border, restrictions on trans minors and sports, and a muscular welfare state. Also, the “move to the center” as opposed to “move to the right” is bad framing.

These kinds of poll questions are far to subjective to have any practical usefulness. Try to find two voters who agree on a definition of "the center" or even agree on what "socialism" means. You'll have a frustrating lack of success. Leave these questions to focus groups, they suck as polling Qs

Is what happens when you present people with deeply unserious polling using poorly defined, vague terminology that means different things to different people. "Moderate"? "Center"? NYT and the rest of the media use these terms as if they have universally recognized definitions. They don't.

I actually don’t think any of those are contradictory and together they form the following coherent world view: (1) Democrats should move right to win elections; (2) the ideology of the Democratic Party is true and correct; (3) socialism has important elements to borrow from but not all.

They want Dems to move to the center to win elections, then govern as the “socialists” they are (because they think generic Dem ideas like “tax the rich to fund health care for the middle class” is socialism due to years of successful GOP propaganda)

Adam it's crazy when think about it common senses out the door as of late. In 20 years most middle road thinking common sense people will be labeled as Republicans. And the name will take different meaning. While both extreme branches each party will become they're own thing..

People interpret those words (center, left, the right, etc.) differently. They're also probably trying to guess what the pollster means by them to answer in a way that expresses their real opinion. That's my guess as to what's going on here.

I think this might be explained by people viewing a movement to the center as an embrace of agreeableness rather than a stance on policy

People just want less polarization. Plenty of people who I talk to who are definitely Dems and would never vote R, but also aren’t as politically engaged as me, are still hung up on the idea of centrism and want everyone to just meet in the middle. It’s a vague “can it be less toxic plz?” feeling.

They’re tired of feeling like they hate the other side. Also many have this vague notion that all of this is partially liberals fault for being too extreme and all this MAGA shit is a reaction to that.

This polarization started when women, Black ppl & other ‘lesser’ humans started voting, speaking up, acting out, approaching equality. It ends, hopefully, when equality is achieved. Ironic, then, that centrists have largely abandoned the policies that would free them from this toxic dynamic.

It is the dilemma the Democrats can't seem to resolve: stick unyeildingly to absolute principles and just hope they can pull a MAGA in the generals of winning w/out voters who aren't True Believers, or moderate and get accused of betraying their partisans (who are the ones voting in the primaries).

Yeah well tough shit for them then. If they want a choice in the matter, they have to start choosing sides. Sorry that’s exhausting and hard, but the world sucks so deal with it.

I agree. Nothing about that graph looks tragic. It says “move more to center” not move to the right. You could probably find another set of Dems that would say move more left. I didn’t read anything that was strange about that poll

Yeah, I think it‘s pretty key to note that “centrism“ is pretty much untethered from any actual policy (at least in sentiment polling—the actual centrists are pretty repellant cowards). It’s just a vibe, just “I don’t like all this icky fighting.”

That's not at all what I'm saying, no idea where you're pulling that from. Policy heavy campaigning or not is irrelevant, aside from whether the policies suck. What I'm saying is that when many people express a preference for "centrism" they don't mean centrist policy, they mean vibes.

none of these words mean anything to the people answering these questions and to the extent they do understand them, its entirely in personal terms that are not transferable to the next person.

It makes sense if they think the party is right of center and not extreme in any regard, and see socialism as a moderate position? 🤷‍♂️

In general, I mistrust polls that boil down to "what do you think other people think?" Such metapolls end up being funhouse mirrors, far less useful than merely asking "what do you think/want?" etc.

the bar-coloring takes for granted that the Dem party is to the right of “socialism” … which I certainly believe it is, but it’s possible that some people don’t

Buzzword burnout. Terms have lost their meaning so much no one knows what they mean when someone asks about socialism, left, right, or moderate. And wtf is 'small government', does that mean it can fit in a uterus?

Because it's not just Democratic voters. It says it was a poll of Democrats and "potential Democrats". So...Republicans. The results are what Republicans *think* a "true Democrat" is.

Makes perfect sense to me. For example, I'm a big fan of social democracies, e.g. in the Nordic countries, but i know that model would be impossible to implement in the US anytime soon, so I prefer that the Dems be more centrist in order to win elections and beat the fascists.

So the poll question says "move to the center" and you write "move to the right". That's a you problem. The Dem party is far to the right of the G20 mainstream. This is masked cause the GOP is one of the radical right wing groups in the world. Quickly approaching Putin / Taliban territory

Would love to know the breakdown of the ages sampled. Voters under 25-30 do NOT know a world of more congenial politics. How it was ok to have different *policy* ideas and still be friends. We have taken a very sharp turn back to 19th C political ideas-- the rabidness of extreme ideation

I read this as voters seeing the value of a Big Tent party and seeing the Democratic Party as that. The challenge is keeping everyone in the tent when all of them can't get what they want, but that's what politics is supposed to do. 1/2

On the matter of socialism, this shows that the Republicans have not only failed to villainize the word, but they also have managed to push people to have a favorable opinion of it. This is despite many or most people being able to define what it is, regardless of their sentiment. 2/2

This was the deliberate result of Republicans describing every single thing even the most moderate democrat ever did ever as "radical extremist far left Marxist socialism communism"

Most people don't have a coherent political ideology. That's why you wind up with polls that say Dems are too far to the left but then the same people express their support for left-wing policies that most Dems in power won't even touch (like M4A)

There is a hell of alot of explaining in this thread which goes to great lengths to avoid the obvious truth, which is that the average voter is an absolute moron with the emotional maturity and self-realization of a toddler.

They also just don’t mean anything coherent in 2026 period. The “right-wing” party supports high tariffs, the govt taking ownership stakes in corporations, and federal agencies dictating minutiae of state and local policy. In 2004, this would’ve been a GOP caricature of the far-left.

We see a hint of this here: When asked about a specific political ideology, socialism, it gets a big favorable plurality. This runs “counter” to the other questions labels because they’re vague, can mean different things depending on who you ask. Pollsters need more specific Q’s to get accurate A’s.

For the same reason that people might say they like socialism while wanting Democrats to move to the right, you have to be very cautious in interpreting these results as they tend to be highly sensitive to question wording and change when tradeoffs are introduced.

There's a whole cottage industry of left-of-center orgs that run polls designed to exploit people's tendency to assent to programs worded as doing something positive for people. That's not to say nothing left-leaning is genuinely popular, but you have to not overinterpret the results.

Perhaps, but they might just be channeling the leaders of the party itself. When BLM protestors chant "Defund the police," Dem leaders balk and propose funding more training. "Abolish ICE", they suggest reform. "Tax the rich," is met by tax credits. "Trans rights" is met with "but only adults". Etc.

As the right wing goes more and more extreme a move to the center will only take you to the position of a semi moderate republican. Not a Democrat or what the rest of the world views as a moderate. So they will vote against self intrest Never underestimate the stupidity of people in large numbers

I figure most people who don't think about it too much think themselves reasonable and therefore in the center somewhere, and therefore Dems should move to the center (their personal exact politics.) But also it's just The Savvy Thing To Say when you're asked to play strategist instead of your prefs

The average american does not understand how the political spectrum works, does not care, should not need to care, and thus asking "left right or center" will get you a very different answer than "what policy" as everyone assumes moderation good extreme bad while having fucking insane opinions.

Also "socialism/communism bad?" Will get different answers than asking about specific policy as americans also have been taught for more than a century that socialism means you work in the depression factory manufacturing grey jumpsuits and flat caps and eat only gruel.

I think most voters aren’t that ideological. For the most part, they will get behind anyone who keeps prices low and jobs solid. And Dems mostly just want people who will fight and stand up to Republicans. I think the far left vs left vs moderate handwringing isn’t all that necessary.

Not a single developed country is socialist. All of them have mixed-market capitalist economies. To give just one example of how batshit your statement is, for it to be true the LDP of Japan would need to be socialist. Which should tell you something.

I think we have misunderstood each other Japan's health care system is characterized by universal health coverage, where all residents are required to have health insurance. The government covers 70% of medical costs, while patients are responsible for the remaining 30%

That's not socialism. It's just the government providing a service, like public k-12 education. That's mixed market capitalism. The US could have much the same thing by making something like medicare a universal public option for insurance. You can support that, but that's not socialism.

This is an example of terrible poll construction leading to goofy graphs. "Potential Democratic voter" is everyone in the U.S. other than Ken Paxton apologists who lack the capacity to lie. Of course the results appear whack.

That's a good point. "Move to the center" as an answer is meaningless unless you know whether the respondent thinks the party is currently too far to the left or too far to the right.

People who think Democrats are a right of center party, while a loud voice in online hard left spaces, are a pretty rare group of people in the general population.

I mean, this view is the pretty much the exact opposite of "sophisticated," but yes, people don't necessarily think about the political spectrum in a more scientific way.

Makes sense if you accept that Americans view “the center” as ontologically good but that it has no bearing on their view of any given policy

Because they think socialism is just free healthcare and trains. Socialism will have those things but the objective of socialism is to abolish private property, mass re educate white settlers and redistribute land back to its rightful indigenous stewards, if they knew that they wouldn’t support it.

“Left” is whatever caricature people have in their minds about people they perceive as left wing thanks to overwhelmingly right wing propaganda (all of mainstream media, to be clear). That’s the aversion. It’s not complicated. America is red scare brained, even today.

Red scare brained probably isn’t even the right way to think about it since they at least seem to understand socialism will help them. They don’t like left wing aesthetic but they want the treats the left wing actually offers. They don’t like the way the actual fight for it looks though.

Theory: voters now think of "left" and "right" in terms of vibes rather than policy unless specifically prompted to do otherwise: want dems to have less of (what they see as) a cringe woke vibe, but also want dems to move substantively toward policies that you and I--but not them--consider left-ish

Nearly useless. Ask about specific policies, services, the role of government and the means of enabling ours to play that roll, and see what kind of responses we get.

There's a third option, which is voting on competence/effectiveness. Mamdani, for example, is very effective so far. If the snow gets shoveled and the potholes get filled, many voters don't care if it was done through privatization or democratic socialism.

Yea but he got elected on vibes. He had no executive experience beforehand and it was pure luck he’s effective. Well I listened to him on podcasts and could tell he was a smart guy. But everyone else I talked to was moved by vibes. He was really good at vibes!

To be fair, he also campaigned as a competent problem solver who knew his shit, so it was reasonable to expect what we got out of him based on that in a way it wouldn’t be for, idk, kshama sawant lol. What you choose to campaign on does reflect what your priorities might be in office

Fair! But that won’t be as much the case for his reelection campaigns or if he decides to run for some other office. People who get elected on vibes alone and don’t deliver usually have short political careers.

And 'Medicare for All' will never be divorced from red/blue politics because Republicans will scuttle any universally popular bill in order to deny Democrats any wins. And any bill they sponsor will use the universal popular parts as cover for their politics, even to the point of gutting the cover

If you let it. I supported Hillary in 2008 because I knew she would ram it down the country's throat. Obama did what he does--naively think compromise will work. For things like this, you have to push the issue until they defend letting children die. Be it starts with vision and a will to fight.

Sure. But most Americans have government services they take for granted until a) they're taken away or b) someone reminds them. The right isn't going to change. Fine. But there are plenty in the center who will get it if we bang the drum. But that requires a vision and to defend government.

They want Dems to win and think they’ll be more electable if they move to the center, even tho they themselves do not hold those more “centrist” beliefs. Electability discourse is poison.

Fuzzy Mike@fuzzymike.bsky.social

Democrats need to follow the polls and simply make sure there's cheap housing, groceries and gas, and high wages, without any regulations on businesses, and provide medicare for all, broadband, postal service, and clean, damage-free streets, and lower crime, with zero taxes, and a balanced budget

Given that some VERY frequent posters even on this site seem unclear (perhaps intentionally?) about what they mean by right, and especially by left, is it any surprise that the polled public is also confused?

I would venture a guess to say people who say it's too far left/needs to move right or center are not necessarily people who ideologically believe that, but people who think it's necessary for the party to win elections. Like the people who say the problem with "abolish ICE" is it's too far left.

I want to see the questionnaire that captures how people define "the center," because this sure looks like the question answerers had a different definition than the question asker did.

I suspect most people think moving to the center is the way you win elections, even if their own perspective is more progressive. Not saying I agree with that opinion - in fact, I think it’s misguided - but I understand why someone might think that way

So they get probably a 1% response rate; ask respondents to self-select whether they are *POTENTIAL* Democratic voters; and add to that voters who say they are actually Democratic voters. What is the benefit of reporting these two groups as one, other than having more samples??

“One of the two major political parties has an activist/voter base organized around trolling. Let’s ask them in the context of a professional media poll whether they would potentially consider voting for Democrats” What are we doing here???

I mean, I think there's a few different reasonable explanations for this. American mainstream media always talks about the importance of moderation to win elections which voters may mean they recognize 'the importance to moderate' even if they prefer socialist policies personally for instance.

It's the standard bullshit framing from the NYT where if you were to ask them about progressive policies support would be through the roof but if you just ask them about moving "to the left" support drops because everyone has a different idea about what that means

Choosing "Move to the Center" is a real case of people picking what we think we're "supposed" to say. Same as saying we "don't like negative attacks." Yes we do! It's all most voters respond to! We just don't want to say it out loud.

To be fair, to answer this poll in a way that truly expresses my opinion, I'd have to have some definitions for the words "left," "center," and "right." I have no idea what this pollster considers "the center."

I don't think voters are dumb or lack beliefs, more like the profession whose job it is to interpret these things is by and large experiencing widespread failure, largely due to moneyed interest having fingers on the scales of messaging.

No, they are purposely misinformed and civics education has been dead for two generations. "Centrism" is a bedtime story told to stop conversation about specific policies like universal healthcare.

Yeah and “centrism” is a free-floating signifier that attaches to a lot of things, of which policy is only a small part. It’s a truism that “centrism” is something reasonable and good and moral. My guess is if you framed the question “should the Dems move further right,” it wouldn’t poll the same

Sometimes I wonder if someone should run for office as "a centrist", and just have really hard-left positions but in every debate and interview just insist those positions are very centrist.

I do think you have to be more creative about it than that, a lot of it is nonverbal signifiers, and a lot of it is discourse—Trump was perceived as moderate relative to Harris by low-info voters even though that’s an insane thing to believe, and it’s not because he pretended to be a moderate

(Unfortunately the same is true of “socialism,” “conservatism,” and “liberalism” in most people’s minds. Even some people who consider themselves highly politically informed.)

I don’t think I’m too far off the mark saying if the DNC consultant class really wanted to know where the Dem rank & file are politically, they should spend their time reading and interacting on Bluesky rather than relying on commissioned polls that somehow always seem to favor a rightward shift.

This is very easy to explain Most Democrats are not as socially liberal as the party elite is. They want the party to move to the center on those issues. They are largely satisfied with the center-left economic agenda, though.

Yes, exactly. They're social democrats trying to communicate their beliefs using a political taxonomy that treats social democracy as indistinguishable from communism.

Elites of both parties tend to be more liberal on social issues than the base of both of those parties. In the case of Republicans that made the party more moderate. They agreed to renew the voting rights act under Bush. In the case of Democrats, that pushes them away from the center

On the flipside, elites of both parties tend to be more conservative on fiscal issues. That’s why you see stuff like a wealth tax being popular with the Dem base, but rarely pushed by the likes of Chuck Schumer or Barack Obama. You also saw Paul Ryan try to cut Medicare (GOP base hates that)

My party needs to be more normal and popular, which I define as everything I believe in. Most party members are like me so that doesn't need to change. Socialism sounds cool, at least the version in my head, and anything is better than our current economy.

Pretty typical that the group least likely to vote, otherwise known as “independents“, have fallen victim to the propaganda that Democrats are a far left party rather than a center left party. Progressive policies are always popular when you describe them to people. But propaganda works.

Left, right, and center seem like useless descriptors when it comes to polling. Are voters are polled on if they want the Republican Party to move to the left, right, or center?

Or perhaps democratic socialism is not the radical far left ideology that the GOP portrays it to be? HINT: it isn’t! In Europe that is a centrist ideology.

Socialism for democrats is what racism and homophobia is for republicans. Republicans are now way more comfortable being who they are and don't care about gaslighting it. We as democrats shouldn't be afraid to do the same.