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SoftBank’s investor presentation is one of the greatest things ever made. I’ve been thinking about it all day. These are the real slides shown in a speech where Masayoshi Son said he wouldn’t retire for at least another decade. The goose stuff is truly demented. Bravo group.softbank/media/Projec...

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This comes off like something from a C-graded presentation made for a high school entrepreneurship class, not something made by a ""serious"" financial institution with an eleven figure asset value...

Oh my god, Masayoshi Son has been talking about golden geese for over a decade! "Four years later, the “goose premium” failed to materialize and Son took a different approach, relying on the raw power of mathematics." archive.ph/HN8KZ

"relying on the raw power of mathematics" is exactly the kind of thing some clueless twit who majored in business or MBAs or whatever bullshit would think. "holy moley guys these magical funni numbers and symbols MAKE SENSE! what if everything we do on top of that is all bullshit?!?!?!?!"

I’d be going apeshit if I had been watching them. The fact he did this then said he wouldn’t retire for another decade is pure magic. Masayoshi son is king of SoftBank for life

Pretty sure in WeWork's case the goose was a scammer who was trafficking drugs via private planes and the eggs were purchasing industrial sector mortgages just before the world went into lockdown.

Back then subscribing to The Goose Premium meant buying into WeWork

Ed Zitron@edzitron.com

Oh my god, Masayoshi Son has been talking about golden geese for over a decade! "Four years later, the “goose premium” failed to materialize and Son took a different approach, relying on the raw power of mathematics." archive.ph/HN8KZ

You know, I worked somewhere that used a wework space and it was pretty neat. I remember thinking “hmm what’s the catch though?” It’s like “wow how can wework offer this so cheaply?” Invincible meme: that’s the neat part - they can’t

I hope more people learn how true this is of many people involved in investment, and running large corporations. I'm pretty sure it selects for stupid people. A non-stupid person would have to lie convincingly all the time. Easier if you believe your own bullshit.

Worse: the adage about not counting chickens before they're hatched applies exponentially more before they're even laid. If we knew which future technologies would be profitable (or who owned them), it would be a very different world.

Complete bankruptcy is inevitable - these absolute idiots - all of them - have just gotten lucky by exploiting the fact that wrong monetary and political policies have put money in the pockets of a retarded population - ability counts for nothing anymore (until all of these go bankrupt as they will)

*attempting to explain AI economics* Imagine if the eggs where going in and out of 4 different Geese but never actually left this cycle thus never actually producing any new golden eggs.

I mean, it's just business 101: the real vlaue of the business lies within the capital - the factory - and it's ability to produce projects (and in a large tense, the r&d, marketing, and other elements of the business). It's just presented at a Dick & Jane level for idiot shareholders.

Ironically if the eggs were real eggs instead of useless gold ones, they could with time and care become new geese with more egg-making factories inside them. Plus there'd be excess ganders for the ax-happy farmer to slaughter, so everyone wins! 😉

Love the helpful "internal mechanism" label And how the point of the graphic is to explain that the goose and the eggs are different and have been wrongfully confused, even as the picture labels the eggs and the goose all as "ASI"

For real Ed? Journalism pinky swear, these are real slides? My gods. If they are, then I really need to re-think my apparently inadequate level of pessimism about the competence and seriousness of executives. Christ.

"Labor (GEESE) is the source of wealth and all culture (EGGS), and since useful labor is possible only in society and through society, the proceeds of labor belong undiminished with equal right to all members of society." Lasalle, once again missing the point.

Are these the same people who are like “No, no, if anything, your groceries are too cheap...” and then show you a chart they just made up? 📈

But surely the goose is labour. Labour plus capital = value but they’re so determined not to recognise workers inherent right to the value they create that call us geese. Fucking insane.

Masayoshi Son is clearly pissed that Kioxia, a company that makes SSD drives, has a valuation 50% higher than Softbank's and is currently the most valuable company in Japan.

11 billion dollar junk bond loan to fund a position in Open AI producing little income. And Open AI will need more. I am too old to see any wisdom at all in this.

1) I can’t tell whether I’m rooting for the goose or the eggs. 2) Are these solid gold eggs or just a coating. 3) I feel like any goose that’s producing eggs of gold should be protected with someone’s life. Not mine, but someone’s.

jesus christ, my working hypothesis is that the vast majority of wall street and business types are dribbling morons, but these slides are next level clown show.

I love how these people are so convinced of their own genius and simultaneously the dumbest people on the planet. This is the only combination of traits that leads to you making slides explaining the simplest metaphor in existence.

But... he's a banker? In any interpretation of the fable, all he does is move the eggs around. Does he think he's the goose, his bank is the goose, or the AI circle-jerk he's put all their money in is the goose?

The logic is sound! Don't look at what problems AI is solving - no, do- no, look over here -look at who's enabling all those very real solutions! Meee!

Weird to think of AI as a goose laying golden eggs, when it's more like a machine that squeezes the blood out of gooses. The geese are in fact not valuable after Claude deletes your entire code base. The geese are a depreciating asset that need to be frequently replaced.

But like it's also crazy they don't seem to comprehend the fact a data center requires resources to run. The goose blood you extracted doesn't even sell for a fraction of the goose feed. These people are so bad at business.

The goose costs 80 to feed, and will attack anyone in a 12 mile radius and its housing needs to be replaced every few years. I think thats how it goes. Solution? More geese.

Incidentally, the French artificer Vaucasson went to great lengths creating a clockwork duck simulacrum that could authentically shit. Voltaire, among others, was very enthusiastic about it.

At first I was like “this is dumb but he’s not wrong” and then I understood that in this metaphor, he as the *investor* is the goose! The arrogance is astounding, especially given his track record…

If this was accounting exam - why it’s valued as intangibles (as goodwill) in a purchase transaction similar to how when a tech start up is bought the acquirer pays for it far above book value b/c they are acquiring founder talent to run a new division and human capital (geese) aren’t kept on books

If this was a finance exam, the goose is valued as a DCF of all future eggs expected to be laid by the goose and converted to cash in market and then discounted back future cashflow to the present day with an interest rate to capture the time value of money to yield full PV monetary value of goose

Funny thing is that 1) eggs do lay eggs, it's the whole point of this "life" thing, but more importantly 2) "eggs laying eggs" is a *better* metaphor for tech development in general & ASI specifically: new discoveries build upon older ones, they're not identically produced by a static system!

Trying to explain the labor theory of value to investment bankers: "so imagine a goose. Inside the goose is a factory-but wait. This is not a factory that employs anyone (heaven forbid). Imagine a factory that makes golden eggs with no employees. That factory is INSIDE the goose..."

Nobody telling Jack and the Beanstalk has ever felt it needed to be explained why the goose is valuable. Even young children are expected to pick up on that one without it being spelled out. But SoftBank investors are different I guess.